VZCZCXRO0537
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #2588/01 2990842
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 260842Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6714
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON 0759

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 002588 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR IO/UNP, INR/AA, DRL/AE, AF/RSA AND AF/W 
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA 
USUN FOR NELSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL ECIN EPET PINS SNAR SG
SUBJECT: LOOKING AT ELECTIONS AND OIL, UN SEES UNEMPLOYMENT AS 
THREAT TO REGIONAL STABILITY 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) On October 19, the six UN special representatives (UNSRs) 
in West Africa gathered in Dakar for their eighth meeting under the 
chairmanship of Ambassador Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, the UN Secretary 
General's Special Representative for West Africa.  They focused on 
Cote d'Ivoire and Guinea although they also discussed Liberia, 
Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau, as well as regional issues.  On 
October 20 and 21, academics, diplomats and representatives of NGOs 
joined the group and identified unemployment as the greatest threat 
to regional stability.  The participants examined oil politics, 
governance and accountability, institutional changes, corruption, 
narcotics and human trafficking, and the eight national elections 
scheduled for 2008.  Participants felt that Liberia's GEMAP could be 
a model.  They also urged the international community to pressure 
ECOWAS countries to abide by election commitments.  END SUMMARY. 
 
POINTS ABOUT SPECIFIC COUNTRIES AND CONFLICTS 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) The UNSRs examined both country-specific and regional 
issues, looking beyond the four countries where peace missions 
currently exist (Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia and Sierra 
Leone): 
 
-- COTE D'IVOIRE:  They expressed support for the Economic Community 
of West African States (ECOWAS) and African Union (AU) proposals for 
Cote d'Ivoire and called upon Ivoirians to relaunch the peace 
process.  They noted that the Liberia peace-keeping operation is 
much larger than the one in Cote d'Ivoire on a per capita basis, but 
the situation in Cote d'Ivoire is far more fragile. 
 
-- LIBERIA:  Turning to Liberia, they stressed satisfaction with 
progress on security sector reform and the Governance and Economic 
Management Program (GEMAP).  The UNSRs highlighted job creation, 
reconciliation and management of expectations as key issues for the 
months ahead. 
 
-- SIERRA LEONE:  They focused on the pre-election environment, 
noting that the police have removed all roadblocks. 
 
-- SENEGAL:  The Casamance conflict has economic and cultural 
similarities to the conflict in Sierra Leone, and the rebels enjoy 
international support. 
 
-- GUINEA-BISSAU:  As for Guinea-Bissau, narcotics trafficking and 
strengthening intra-party democracy are the key issues. 
 
-- GUINEA:  Although there is no UNSR in Conakry, the UNDP ResRep 
attended the meeting and highlighted the fragility of the political 
and economic situation. 
 
THREATS AND CHALLENGES TO PEACE CONSOLIDATION 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶3.  (U) On October 20 and 21, the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA) 
and the Goree Institute broadened the meeting to include academics, 
diplomats and representatives of non-governmental organizations 
(NGOs), including the Conflict Prevention and Peace Forum and Human 
Rights Watch.  The meeting examined a number of themes: 
unemployment, oil politics, institutional changes, unchanging 
elites, electoral accountability and good governance.  Participants 
identified unemployment as the greatest single danger to regional 
security and stability.  They also made recommendations for the next 
UN Security Council session on West Africa -- planned for either 
January or February under the Russian or Slovak presidency. 
 
TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY 
------------------------------- 
¶4.  (U) Recognizing that the origins of many regional conflicts are 
economic, Liberia's experience with GEMAP generated considerable 
debate.  However, a consensus emerged that West Africans must 
ultimately demand as much or more of their governments than 
outsiders. 
 
OIL POLITICS 
------------ 
¶5.  (U) Oil politics kept coming up because of Cote d'Ivoire and 
Mauritania's new oil wealth and the potential for it in Guinea and 
Guinea-Bissau.  Participants strongly agreed that extractive 
industries need to be socially responsible and work with West 
African governments to ensure that mineral and petroleum wealth is 
shared with the people.  Participants also encouraged the World Bank 
and IMF to share best practices, such as the Extractive Industries 
Transparency Initiative (EITI). 
 
ELECTIONS AND ELITES 
-------------------- 
 
DAKAR 00002588  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6.  (U) There was broad agreement that instability has not usually 
resulted in changes in leadership.  In Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, 
Liberia and Sierra Leone, fighting has not created generational or 
political change, and the same actors continue to play leading 
roles.  Before next year's eight elections, ECOWAS and the AU need 
to remind ECOWAS leaders that in 2001 they subscribed to a 
non-binding agreement that constitutional provisions governing the 
conduct of elections and electoral codes would not change in the six 
months prior to elections.  (NOTE:  Senegal is in clear violation. 
END NOTE.) 
 
INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE 
-------------------- 
¶7.  (SBU) While elites may not have changed, institutions have.  The 
African Union in particular is far more assertive and engaged than 
the Organization of African Unity.  In fact, the AU's position on 
Cote d'Ivoire -- while perhaps not what France would have hoped for 
-- is far stronger than it was even a year ago.  However, 
participants cautioned that the AU is not ready to address Guinea 
(or Zimbabwe) because of their leaders' roles in the decolonization 
process.  Strong presidencies also present a barrier to change. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶8.  (SBU) While the AU may be growing stronger, West Africa's elites 
are not changing and are not moving to address the region's problems 
as fast as the international community would like.  Unemployment; 
transparency; accountability; narcotics and human trafficking; 
investment promotion (private-sector-led growth), and the freedom, 
fairness and transparency of elections are all key issues that 
donors, including the UN and the IFIs should continue to examine. 
We should indeed focus on GEMAP and on sharing best practices for 
managing new found oil wealth.  Finally, we should hold ECOWAS 
members accountable for commitments concerning the conduct of 
elections.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶9.  (U) Visit Embassy Dakar's classified website at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/af/dakar. 
 
JACOBS