VZCZCXYZ0008
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2441/01 3031852
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301852Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6345
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002441 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: 1994 AMIA BOMBING; US-MEXICAN BORDER WALL; ARGENTINE 
PRESIDENT KIRCHNER'S FOREIGN POLICY; ARGENTINE 'INSTITUTIONAL 
QUALITY;' USG'S REACTION TO ALLEGED PROGRESS ON IRANIAN NUCLEAR 
PROGRAM; 10/30/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Last weekend's key international stories include the implications of 
Argentine Prosecutor Nisman's request for an international arrest 
order against former Iranian government officials for the 1994 AMIA 
bombing case; the probable impact of upcoming US legislative 
elections on Latin America; the US-Mexican border wall; Argentine 
President Kirchner's foreign policy; Professor Mark Jones' opinion 
of Argentina's 'institutional quality;' and the USG's reaction to 
alleged progress in Iran's nuclear program. 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" (10/28) reports on last week's press 
encounter with INL DAS Christy McCampbell. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "Satisfaction and expectation in the US" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (10/29) "After the praise received by Prosecutor Alberto 
Nisman from the US due to his request that an international arrest 
order be issued against former Iranian government officials for the 
1994 AMIA bombing case, what most worries Washington is whether 
Judge Rodolfo Canicoba Corral will issue the orders and that 
Interpol accept them. 
 
"Democratic Representative Tom Lantos said that 'Argentine 
prosecutors did an excellent job by providing evidence on what the 
whole world has long thought - that Iranian leaders gave the orders 
to their Hezbollah terrorist 'puppets' to perform the irrational 
terrorist attack in Buenos Aires.' Lantos also asked authorities 'to 
immediately bring the international terrorists who committed the 
attack to justice.' 
 
"... Dina van Siegel, head of the Institute for Latin America of the 
US Jewish Committee, pointed out: 'This is not over yet. The 
Argentine Government will have to issue the international warrants - 
the sooner, the better.'" 
 
- "An investigation that followed the steps of a failed nuclear 
deal" 
 
Daniel Santoro, political columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(10/29) "The Menem administration's decision to suspend a nuclear 
shipment to Iran 'interfered with the Iranian regime's strategy' of 
'developing its nuclear program' with alleged military purposes. 
According to Nisman's report, Tehran then ordered Lebanese 
pro-Iranian Hezbollah to attack AMIA with its terrorists in order to 
put pressure on Argentina to deliver a uranium manufacturing plant 
and another plant for heavy water production. 
 
"... In December 1991, the first pieces of those factories were to 
be shipped when then DCM at the US Embassy, James Walsh, called Vice 
FM Juan Carlos Olima asking to suspend the export... According to 
'Clarin's' investigation, on the following day, US President George 
Bush (Senior) called Menem and Menem then ordered to cancel the 
shipment. 
 
"According to a 2001 SIDE (Argentine intelligence agency) report, 
this was 'in the context of a so-called 'policy of agreements,' 
whose main feature was the use of violence to force countries who 
suffered terrorist attacks to then agree to a negotiation in line 
with Iran's interests.'" 
 
- "US legislative elections open doubts in Latin America" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (10/30) "... Undoubtedly, some Latin American left-wing 
governments have more ideological affinity with Democrats than with 
Republicans, but this does not mean relations with the Argentina 
will improve if Democrats win the elections. As a matter of fact, US 
ties with some countries could even worsen, and Argentina could be a 
good example of that. 
 
"... Professor Mark Jones, of Rice University of Houston, said: 'If 
I were the president of Colombia or Peru, I would be very worried.' 
According to Jones, if it is already quite difficult to renew 'fast 
track' authority, it will be almost impossible to do it if Democrats 
win.'" 
 
- "A useless wall of lies" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" front-pages (10/28) an opinion piece by 
writer Mario Vargas Llosa, who opines "The US Congress has just 
passed legislation to build a 1,200 km wall on the US-Mexican 
 
 
 
border, which will cost 7 billion dollars, to halt illegal 
immigration. 
 
"For someone like me who is fascinated with the contamination of 
reality by fiction, the news could not be more bewitching. Why? 
Because this wall will never be built and if, by miracle, it is 
built, it will be absolutely useless. Everyone knows this, even 
legislators who passed the legislation and the US President 
himself. 
 
"Why all this theatre then? Because there are elections on November 
7 in the US and legislators seeking re-election want to show this 
legislation as evidence that they have started to act energetically 
against that dangerous demon called illegal immigrants, who deprive 
US citizens of jobs while harming social security (another weak 
fiction)... 
 
"... Those seven billion dollars that the wall of lies would cost 
would render a much more effective service in terms of illegal 
immigration if they were invested in factories or loans to create 
jobs on the other side of the border... 
 
"However, this belongs to the domain of strict reality and it is 
known that human beings - even the gringos, who claim to be so 
pragmatic - are often more inclined to the magic of fiction rather 
than crude life." 
 
- "Felipe's luck and Kirchner's turns" 
 
Joaquin Morales Sola, political columnist of daily-of-record "La 
Nacion," writes (10/29) "... Kirchner came back from New York a 
month ago, with some certainties: not only was the AMIA bombing a 
criminal attack against Argentine society - its long impunity also 
shaped its [Argentina's] ties with the world's Jewish community and 
with the USG. 
 
"Kirchner has always promised Washington that partial disagreement 
would never cloud an essential point of agreement between Argentina 
and the US: the Argentine Government would support the US in 
reinforcing international security. He has just done it at the UN 
Security Council, when he voted in favor of the severe warning 
issued against North Korea for its nuclear tests, and he has just 
confirmed it by distancing himsef from Iran. 
 
"... While the Argentine Government is unlikely to decide to break 
ties with Iran or denounce it at the UN Security Council, the truth 
is that Kirchner's support for Prosecutor Nisman's report reveals a 
substantial change in his foreign policy. He is stepping away from 
Hugo Chavez, a vociferous ally of Iran and North Korea... Oil prices 
are slumping and Chavez is starting to become isolated in South 
America. 
 
"Ten days ago, Kirchner asked Evo Morales in Bolivia 'Why do you 
need to fight with the US, if they aren't doing anything to you?' 
Kirchner's last trip to New York served to verify for the Argentine 
president that a US president can be unpopular, like Bush is 
nowadays, but that does not change the permanent interests of US 
policy." 
 
- "Institutional quality" 
 
Horacio Verbitsky, political columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 
12," writes (10/29) "The Buenos Aires media is generous with the 
space it dedicates to lament the lack of institutional quality in 
Argentina, sometimes with informative objectivity. It is the case of 
the article published by 'Clarin,' whose excellent Washington-based 
correspondent interviewed Professor Mark Jones, who had been called 
by the Bush administration to inform Ambassador Anthony Earl Wayne 
about Argentina in the framework of a seminar which was also 
attended by members of the CIA, the US Treasury Department, the 
Department of Commerce and the Pentagon. 
 
"Jones said that 'the budget really does not exist,' because once 
the Congress approves it, there is no control of it whatsoever... 
 
"In this way, Jones echoed criticism from the local opposition. 
 
"However, when the story was published by 'Clarin,' the Executive 
Branch had already submitted a 2006 Budget extension draft bill to 
Congress. Since growth was higher than forecasted, tax collection 
was 11 billion pesos higher than expected... 
 
"The Executive Branch submitted the difference and left it up to 
Congress to decide how to use it... What the opposition will hardly 
do is to acknowledge the democratic move forward it represents." 
 
 
 
 
- "Bush calls for more efforts to put a brake on the Iranian nuclear 
plan" 
 
Leonardo Mindez, on special assignment in Washington D.C. for 
leading "Clarin," writes (10/28) "A new challenge from Iran, a new 
response from the White House, and tension continues mounting. News 
arrived from Tehran that Iran has doubled its uranium enrichment 
capabilities. Shortly after this, George W. Bush responded that if 
that were the case 'we should redouble efforts to work with the 
international community and persuade Iranians that they can only 
expect isolation from the world if they continue with this 
program.' 
 
"... While the US State Department notified that it was not able to 
confirm Tehran reports on the progress of their nuclear program, 
Bush insisted that 'have they redoubled their capabilities or not, 
the idea of Iran holding nuclear armament is unacceptable for the 
US.' 
 
"Trapped in the Iraqi 'swamp,' Bush seems to be willing to reach a 
diplomatic solution at the UN. Just in case, 'Newsweek' magazine has 
just published an opinion survey indicating that 75 percent of 
Americans are against invading Iran and 54 percent are even against 
bombing Iranian nuclear facilities." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Demography and politics in the US" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (10/28) "In the run-up to US 
legislative elections, the US has just surpassed 300 million 
inhabitants, and the figure has economic, cultural and political 
importance. 
 
"The US is the third largest populated country in the world, after 
China and India, and it is also the developed country having the 
highest rate of population growth, partly due to immigration. 
Additionally, the Hispanic or Latin population is now the first 
minority (14 percent)... This positive trend in immigration 
contributes to the country's economic dynamism and underscores the 
multi-racial features of the US society. 
 
"Nonetheless, this trend is at odds with immigrants' difficulties 
putting their situation in order and acquiring full citizens' 
rights. 12 million undocumented immigrants plus the construction of 
a wall on the US-Mexican border speak of this contradiction between 
immigration and economy." 
 
- "Not like the Berlin Wall" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" editorializes (10/30) "The US president has 
just approved legislation to build a long wall on the US-Mexican 
border to prevent the illegal entry of undocumented Mexican 
immigrants to his country. The measure not only had broad 
repercussions in the two countries involved but also in the media 
almost all over the world due to its symbolic nature. 
 
"The domestic reasons leading the USG to take such a drastic 
decision are related to the upcoming elections... 
 
"Beyond these considerations, the construction of a wall has a 
negative impact on the US international image, which its numerous 
detractors have compared to the Berlin Wall. However, the comparison 
is inadequate because the Berlin Wall had an exactly opposite 
objective to the one to be built by the US... 
 
"What one could say about this wall is that it represents the world 
superpower's inability to continue absorbing thousands of poor who 
seek in the US system an opportunity to have a better life... Once 
this wall is built, the American dream will be poorer because it 
will only apply for those on one side of the border." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA