VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2389/01 2970937
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 240937Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6284
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002389 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: US PRESIDENT BUSH'S STATEMENTS ON IRAQ; GLOBAL WAR ON 
TERRORISM; DR PARROT TO BUENOS AIRES; ECUADORIAN ELECTIONS; 
10/20/06; BUENOS AIRES 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Key international stories today include US President George W. 
Bush's statement about a possible parallel between the rise in 
violence in Iraq and the 1968 Communist Tet offensive; an 
Argentine-Bolivian gas deal worth 17 billion dollars; the role to be 
played by the 'Coalition of the Willing' in the Global War on 
Terror; and Dr. Wayne Parrot's press round table in Buenos Aires. 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an editorial highlighting the 
polarization in the Ecuadorian runoff election. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "Violence in Iraq does not stop and harasses the White House" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (10/20) "Only 19 days away from 
elections, which could deprive US President Bush of his real power 
until the end of his term in office, he acknowledged that prevailing 
violence in Iraq has some similarities with the Vietnam war... 
 
"He made this surprising statement at a crucial moment - more than 
71 US soldiers died last month in Iraq - one of the highest numbers 
this year. According to the US military command in Baghdad, the 
strategy adopted to appease the Iraqi capital city has been 
counterproductive, and Democrats are increasingly confident that 
they will win elections... 
 
"... Only two-and-a-half weeks away from elections..., the US 
political and electoral dynamics seems to have reversed the 
prevailing trend of the 2002 legislative elections and the 2004 
presidential elections. Now, Democrats are the ones who have shifted 
the blame on Republicans for a 'failure' in Iraq and accused Bush of 
incompetence." 
 
- "The Coalition of the Vulnerable" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed story by Juan Gabriel 
Tokatlian, professor of International Relations at Universidad San 
Andres, who opines (10/20) "... The boom of fundamentalist 
terrorism, Western powers' military deployment in the Middle East 
and Central Asia, the persistence of long-lasting ethnical conflicts 
and armed confrontations, the persistent degradation of civil wars 
in Asia, Africa and Latin America, the global destabilizing 
consequences of the US hegemony strategy, the regional and 
international uncertainty vis-`-vis the irruption of emerging 
powers, a fast-moving destruction of the environment everywhere, the 
dangerous weakening of multilateralism and the explosive increase in 
inequality make up a lethal combination that could increase the use 
of force. 
 
"... In brief, both the global and regional scenarios call for 
urgent awareness and greater activism against war and violence. 
Vis-`-vis the recurring call, from Iraq to Haiti, to make up a 
'Coalition of the Willing' to fight terrorism and impose changes of 
regimes, the time has come to make up a 'Coalition of the 
Vulnerable' among all those who have been, are, and potentially will 
be direct victims of abusive use of force, manipulation of 
humanitarian international law and the cloudy practices of 'real 
politik.' 
 
"This means going beyond state diplomacy - many times, our 
precarious States may not (and sometimes they do not want to) 
criticize the logic of the powerful. This is why the time has come 
to foster citizens' diplomacy. 
 
"I understand that this diplomacy could be carried out by non 
governmental, unarmed groups who can benignly take over a role that 
traditionally belongs to the State and set out new alliances with 
the international civil society." 
 
- "'We expect a broader GMO range'" 
 
Juan Martinez Dodda, columnist of "InfoCampo," an agricultural 
supplement of business-financial, center-right "InfoBae," writes 
(10/20) "Ten years after the first transgenic crops were sowed, US 
academician and geneticist Wayne Parrot has come to Argentina. 
During his visit, he lectured on the history and the new trends in 
biotechnology, he presented compiled data from his ten years of work 
at the Argentine Congress in order to 'clarity some concepts on 
genetic modification.' 
 
"Parrot predicted that in the upcoming years there will be a much 
broader range of features in transgenic crops, which will add to new 
developments in resilience to insects and herbicides." 
 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Tough electoral confrontation in Ecuador" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (10/20) "Last Sunday's 
first round of presidential elections in Ecuador attracted the 
region's attention, not only due to the political division which is 
typical of the country but also because of the diametrically-opposed 
political proposals that will polarize runoff elections. 
 
"Protected by Hugo Chavez, we have Rafael Correa, a noisy left-wing 
nationalist. According to opinion surveys, he was going to win the 
first round. His competitor is conservative billionaire Alvaro 
Noboa... 
 
"Obviously enough, the proposals from Noboa and Correa are radically 
different. Noboa is virulently anti-Chavez. So much so that he has 
promised that as soon as he wins elections he will cut ties with 
Cuba and Venezuela. Being pro-market economy, Noboa will attempt to 
capture domestic and foreign investment in order to create the best 
possible business climate. For this purpose, he will try to reach an 
FTA with the US, something Colombia and Peru have already done... 
 
"His main opponent, Rafael Correa..., is against reaching an FTA 
with the US, he has suggested not to honor the country's foreign 
debt and to increase taxes and royalties on foreign corporations, 
particularly oil corporations. He thinks that the FARC are not a 
terrorist organization, he promised to close the Manta US Navy base 
and suggested that he could un-dollarize the economy. 
 
"Once again, in what appears as a chain of failures, the big 
defeated of this first round in elections has been Venezuelan Hugo 
Chavez. His interventionist policies and authoritarian proposals 
seem to scare away voters. Just like in Peru and Mexico, this also 
appears to have been the case in Ecuador. 
 
"... Once again, the Ecuadorian political scenario suggests that 
whoever takes office will have to lead a coalition government, in an 
environment of probable instability and a country divided, with 
confronted positions." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA