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FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
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INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
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UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002388 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: WAR IN IRAQ & ITS IMPACT ON NOVEMBER 7 LEGISLATIVE 
ELECTIONS; GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM; NICARAGUAN UPCOMING ELECTIONS; 
NON PROLIFERATION; VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ; AFGHANISTAN; 
THE UN; 10/23/06; BUENOS AIRES 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend papers carry opinion pieces on the war in Iraq and on the 
finding of human remains at Ground Zero and their probable impact on 
the November 7 legislative elections; the Nicaraguan upcoming 
elections; US Senator Lugar's report on Non proliferation; 
Venezuelan President Chavez's influence on Latin America; the 
situation in Afghanistan; the appointment of Ki-Moon as the new UN 
Secretary General and the new scenario at the UN. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
Leading "Clarin," "La Nacion" and "Perfil" published articles on Dr. 
Wayne Parrot's press conference, which was organized by the Embassy 
PAS section on October 18. TN Ciencia (Multicanal 14 - Cablevision 9 
cable TV stations) aired a three-minute report on Parrot's 
statements. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "A civil war with 140,000 spectators" 
 
Gustavo Sierra, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(10/21) "The civil war in Iraq is getting out of control and the 
140,000 US soldiers are mere spectators. Not only is it a 
confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites but among Shiite factions. 
And US marines cannot enforce order in any sector of Iraq. It looks 
like generals are only expecting an order to evacuate. 
 
"... One of the plans of the Bush administration to get out of the 
Iraqi 'swamp' consists of dividing the country into three natural 
sectors - that of the Kurds to the North, that of Sunnis to the 
center, and that of Shiites to the South, and to separate them with 
international forces. However, one can see that this may not be a 
guarantee for peace either. There will be infighting in the three 
territories." 
 
- "The US: the president gets all the blame" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
writes (10/21) "Something happens when an enthusiastic panegyrist 
becomes a stubborn detractor..., and particularly when that 
transformation becomes a political metaphor... 
 
"Two names are involved in this metaphor - those of US President 
George W. Bush and renowned journalist Bob Woodward, whose third and 
most recent book 'State of Denial' has just been published... 
 
"... The war in Iraq has become such a heavy burden that many 
Republican candidates are now afraid of Bush attending their 
campaign rallies to support them. And the disaster of the war in 
Iraq is of such magnitude that even Bush himself has agreed to 
compare the conflict with the Vietnam War, particularly with the 
1968 North Vietnam offensive that represented a turning point for 
the US willingness to continue with the war... 
 
"Even if Bush loses the majority in one or both chambers, the 
superficial outcome will be less spectacular... However, Bush's last 
two years in the White House could be ineffective." 
 
- "One fear, one vote" 
 
Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," writes 
(10/21) "It is a macabre blow of luck, but it will surely be viewed 
as good news by the G.O.P.'s popes. Perhaps they are wrong. 
 
"The Republican party is heading for a sure defeat in the November 7 
legislative elections. (US President) George W. Bush has used the 
phantom of terrorism to win elections... 
 
"The finding of human remains only days before crucial elections 
could refloat the fear of an attack just like the September 11 
attacks, and it could scare away the images of the shocking defeat 
of allied troops in Iraq. However, it is an illusion. 
 
"What one can actually see is that Americans acknowledge the danger 
but do not believe that Bush can deliver safety, but rather the 
opposite. And this news could cause an effect exactly the opposite 
to what Republicans expect." 
 
- "The White House is concerned about Ortega's possible return" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (10/23) "27 years after having 
led the Sandinist revolution, Daniel Ortega asserts he is not the 
same any longer. He says that if he wins the November 5 presidential 
elections, he will reinforce the country's ties with the US and even 
 
 
 
with the IMF. However, Washington's 'hawks' are afraid that he could 
become a new ally for the Castro-Chavez-Morales axis. 
 
"... Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's irruption in favor of Ortega 
further deepened theworries of the Bush administration's 'hawks.' 
However, Ortega is determined to promote an image closer to that of 
Alan Garcia in Peru - that of a former president who learned from 
his mistakes and moderated his stances as a result of it." 
 
- "WMD, a threat without borders" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an op-ed story by Irma Arguello, 
an expert in national defense and security issues, who writes 
(10/23) "The world was shocked by North Korea's nuclear test. The 
news is shocking, although it may not be surprising. The use of WMD 
by terrorist nations or organizations has already been predicted as 
a palpable threat, which raises strong questions regarding the 
future of international security. 
 
"Due to global interdependence, no nation can claim to be free from 
the consequences of terrorism, regardless of the ideology of its 
leaders... 
 
"The information contained in US Senator Richard Lugar's non 
proliferation report has now gained special importance. 
 
"According to the report, there will be a 50-percent-risk of an 
attack with WMD in some city in the world in the next five years, 
and a 70-percent-risk of such an attack in ten years. According to 
the report, 2 to 5 new States could join the nuclear club in the 
next ten years... 
 
"A general belief is that a 'peripheral' country such as Argentina 
is somehow protected from such an attack. But the global extent of 
such an attack hints at a different reality. A national defense 
strategy cannot be isolated from what happens beyond its 
borders..." 
 
- "Tactic and strategy" 
 
Santiago O'Donnell, international columnist of left-of-center 
"Pagina 12," comments (10/22) "Hugo Chavez is the most influential 
political leader in Latin America, but his favorite candidates in 
Peru, Mexico, Ecuador and the UN ended up losing. The outcome of the 
voting has raised doubts about the efficiency of his international 
policy, but no one disagrees with the level of influence that the 
Venezuelan leader has reached in the region. 
 
"According to Jorge Elbaum, professor at Universidad de Buenos Aires 
and Universidad de La Matanza, 'Chavez occupies the empty space left 
by the West's abandonment of Latin America.' 'A great part of such 
abandonment was occupied by a Keynesian Social-Democrat (populist) 
current, which ranges from Bachelet and Tabare Vazquez's rational 
populism to Chavez's binary populism. Only Colombia, Mexico (liberal 
states) and Cuba (communist state) are left out.' 
 
"... Nevertheless, in light of the most recent election results, 
some questions seem inevitable. Will Chavez's unquestionable 
regional leadership serve to strengthen integration in the medium 
term? Will it facilitate Mercosur's integration into the world?" 
 
- "More gestures to Chavez - vote at the UN, summit and greater 
trade" 
 
Carlos Burgueo, international columnist of business-financial 
"Ambito Financiero," comments (10/23 "Nestor Kirchner will maintain 
his relationship with Hugo Chavez. On the one hand, he will continue 
voting in favor of Venezuela's bid for the UN Security Council. 
Kirchner will do this in spite of the fact that negotiations for a 
third candidate have already started in the rest of the hemisphere. 
 
 
"On the other hand, the Argentine Foreign Ministry will start 
working on a meeting between the two presidents to be held on 
November 3 in Montevideo, when the Ibero-American Summit in 
Montevideo is to take place. There will also be a new trade mission 
to Caracas aimed at boosting trade." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "More opium crops in Afghanistan" 
 
An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (10/21) "Five 
years after the invasion, the situation in Afghanistan is far from 
being the one originally planned. Not only were plans to democratize 
 
 
 
and rebuild the country not put into practice but there also are 
areas in which not even the military dare walk. Last June, Amnesty 
International asked for urgent funds to help Afghanistan, a country 
which is down to a serious political and social crisis and 
confronted to increasingly tenacious Talibans' resistance. 
 
"Tens of alleged insurgents die almost daily in joint operations 
carried out by local forces and the armed coalition in South 
Afghanistan. However, new rebel groups immediately appear in the 
region in a process that has overridden NATO's capabilities. This 
chaotic situation adds to another equally alarming fact - according 
to UN officials, opium crops in Afghanistan have increased by 59 
percent this year..., which accounts for one-third of opium 
consumption in the world. 
 
"... The importance of understanding illegal drugs' economy as a 
transversal issue that is related to security and development issues 
becomes more apparent. It is also to be noted that the income from 
illegal drugs traffic goes to terrorist organizations such as the 
Taliban regime, the FARC or the Islamic Jihad. Ties between 
terrorism and drug-trafficking are real, continue to increase and 
create a climate of fear and intimidation that is aimed at 
destabilizing institutions and creating a world that is incompatible 
with democratic values." 
 
- "Venezuela and the UN Security Council" 
 
The daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (10/22) "In spite of 
the victorious announcements and statements made by Venezuelan 
President Hugo Chavez, who traveled all over the world in an attempt 
to obtain a non permanent seat at the UN Security Council for his 
country, reality has clearly revealed that the international 
community has rejected him... 
 
"... The current situation is that there is no margin to think of a 
negotiation between Venezuela and Guatemala... 
 
"The truth is that what is happening unfortunately has damaged the 
image of the entire region. 
 
"It seems that the time has come to work on generating consensus so 
that a third candidate can obtain the support neither Guatemala nor 
Venezuela has obtained. 
 
"Chile and Mexico seem committed to this effort, and Argentina 
should quickly follow suit. After all, Chavez's failure is shared by 
our country, which not only supported Venezuela's bid in its early 
stages but daringly promoted Mercosur's support in what seems to 
have been another foreign policy failure." 
 
- "A new stage in the UN" 
 
Leading "Clarin" editorializes (10/21) "With the appointment of 
Korean Ban Ki-moon as new UN Secretary-General, the UN has entered a 
new stage, which will be marked by the need to obtain great 
consensus to reform the UN and achieve greater efficiency in its 
task to promote international peace and security. 
 
"... The UN has suffered tough blows to its credibility and ability 
to manage and solve conflicts. Some of them were due to external 
factors - the challenges posed by regimes and governments which 
disregard international commitments, and the US foreign policy's 
unilateralism in the war in Iraq. Others were the organization's 
reluctance to adapt itself to better the goals set forth by its 
Charter 61 years ago. 
 
"This is why the new UN Secretary-General's main challenge will be 
to reform the institution and to bridge the gap between 
international laws and commitments and their actual enforcement." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA