VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2329/01 2902024
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 172024Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6208
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002329 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: NORTH KOREA; VENEZUELA'S CANDIDACY TO THE UN SECURITY 
COUNCIL; EVO MORALES; IRA AND ETA; 10/17/06; BUENOS AIRES 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend papers cover China's sanctions on Pyongyang; Venezuela's 
efforts to win a seat at the UN Security Council; and alleged racism 
of Bolivian President Morales' opponents; and the UK and Spain's 
success in solving a long history of diplomatic differences through 
dialogue. 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by former US President and 
2002 Nobel Peace Laureate James Carter, who underscored that "the 
military option in North Korea could lead to the death of one 
million people among South Koreans and Americans." Carter argues 
that "instead of tougher threats and sanctions, the prevailing non 
proliferation treaty should be implemented." 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "Pressured by the US, China imposes sanctions on Pyongyang" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" (10/17) "Amid strong US pressure, the 
Chinese government, North Korea's main ally, started yesterday to 
enforce the sanctions imposed on Pyongyang by the UN Security 
Council to punish the Communist regime's nuclear test... 
 
"While China still has some reservations about sanctions against 
North Korea, it started to raise a fence on its border with North 
Korea and check the loading of trucks heading for that country. The 
Chinese government's first steps are considered vital for the 
success of sanctions against Pyongyang." 
 
- "Tough sanctions against North Korea" 
 
Alberto Armendariz, New York-based correspondent for daily-of-record 
"La Nacion," writes (10/15) "In response to the controversial 
nuclear test performed by North Korea last Monday, the UN Security 
Council unanimously approved tough diplomatic and economic sanctions 
against Kim Jong-Il's Communist regime, although it refrained from 
threatening to launch a military action. 
 
"Resolution 1718 was 'totally' rejected by North Korea, whose 
representatives warned that it will consider every major pressure 
from Washington 'a declaration of war.'" 
 
- "Setback for Chavez' fight for a seat at the UN Security Council" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin" on 
special assignment in New York, writes (10/17) "President Hugo 
Chavez suffered a setback in his efforts to obtain a seat at the UN 
Security Council. Even though all previous signs indicated that 
Venezuela could at least obtain most of the votes, the Venezuelan 
government lost to its rival Guatemala in nine of ten voting rounds 
and tied in the remaining one. 
 
"Guatemala did not manage to obtain the two-thirds of the votes of 
the 192 UN members that are required to obtain a seat, although its 
performance was much better than expected... 
 
"Last night, the happiest delegation was that of US, which spent 
last month lobbying in favor of Guatemala. The White House is 
attempting to prevent Caracas from obtaining a seat at the UN 
Security Council on fears that the Venezuelan leader will hinder 
every US initiative at the UN Security Council. 
 
"US Assistant Secretary for Western Hemispheric Affairs at the US 
Department of State, Tom Shannon, said 'I am not surprised that 
Guatemala is winning. I do not see any need to start considering 
other options...'" 
 
- "UN Security Council - a tense voting is expected" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (10/15) "October 16 voting to chose the country that will 
replace Argentina at the UN Security Council has become a real 
arm-wrestling match between the US and Venezuela. Caracas' official 
competitor is Guatemala and Washington has made public Guatemala's 
triumph. 
 
"US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently told 'The Wall 
Street Journal' that - 'this is a serious affair, one which could be 
the end of consensus within the UN Security Council.' 
 
"What really worries the US is that when Venezuelan leader Hugo 
Chavez speaks, many agree with what he says. While some condemned 
Chavez's rhetoric after he spoke at the UN General Assembly, when he 
compared President Bush with the Devil, many more applauded him, 
particularly the representatives of Middle East and African 
countries. 
 
 
 
"... Russia and China will vote for Venezuela - both have close 
trade ties with Caracas. Africa and Asia are more inclined toward 
Venezuela, just like the Arab countries. 
 
"Latin America is divided - most Central American countries will 
vote for Guatemala while South American and Caribbean countries 
favor Venezuela. There are some exceptions - Colombia, which 
receives important US aid, will vote for Guatemala, and Peru will 
abstain. 
 
"According to the calculations of Argentine Ambassador to the UN 
Cesar Mayoral, Guatemala could obtain 90-100 votes while Venezuela 
could get 100-110 votes." 
 
- "A vote that shows the limits of the Venezuelan leader" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
writes (10/17) "... If another candidate obtains consensus, Chavez 
will be trapped in his predictions of sure victory and harassed by 
the opposition, which accused him of having spent millions of 
dollars in a campaign that was in his own interests and not those of 
Venezuela. 
 
"... Some analysts speculated that an anti-US bloc could emerge at 
the UN. The problem is that Chavez needs Venezuela to win the vote 
while for the US it is enough to prevent him from succeeding." 
 
- "A seat at the UN Security Council" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed story by Manuel Antonio Garreton, 
sociologist and professor at the University of Chile, who writes 
(10/17) "... It is clear that the USG feels the UN, and particularly 
the UN Security Council, as an institution of its own and considers 
that everything that opposes its will is not viable... 
 
"... As a matter of fact, it is the US policy that makes the UN 
Security Council not viable, as happened with the invasion and war 
in Iraq... In other words, the interests of peace, development, and 
respect for all peoples, and the defense and promotion of human 
rights are today opposed to Washington's prevailing interests and 
views. And this is why Guatemala's election would be a blow to the 
credibility and legitimacy of the UN Security Council. 
 
"The second issue is related to the possibility that an independent 
Latin American bloc prevails in the world vis-`-vis the US. 
Venezuela's accession to the UN Security Council represents this 
possibility, given its clear Latin American and progressive 
approach. 
 
"Undoubtedly, Venezuela should be the future non permanent Latin 
American member of the UN Security Council." 
 
- "Who goes with Hugo?" 
 
Michael Soltys, executive editor of liberal, English-language 
"Buenos Aires Herald," writes (10/17) "... It just has not been his 
year - even if Venezuela's maverick President Hugo Chavez remains as 
likely as ever to close out 2006 with a resounding re-election 
victory. 
 
"Chavez has had little enough joy around the region since the 
victory of Bolivia's Evo Morales nearly a year ago, suffering the 
defeat of kindred spirits in Peru and Mexico plus unexpectedly 
strong center-right performances in Colombia and Brazil. 
 
"... A regional swing to the left and the threat posed by Chavez are 
the two most frequent clichs of Latin American analysts but perhaps 
both stand in need of a review... It would seem that Latin America 
is reconsidering the wisdom of the 'Stop the world, I want to get 
off' populism espoused by the likes of Chavez as the subcontinent's 
own growth reflects just how extraordinarily well that world is 
doing economically. 
 
"As for Chavez, his support for candidates in the region has now 
failed so often since the Bolivian elections that it has to be asked 
whether his backing might not be counterproductive." 
 
- "The price of a risky plan" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (10/17) "An urgent message for 
Hugo Chavez - remember which are the basic rules you should follow 
when dealing with other leaders. Those are several, but easy to 
understand, if one leaves aside ideological biases. It would be 
convenient for you to start implementing them, whether you win or 
not this election against Guatemala for a seat at the UN Security 
 
Council. 
 
"Rule number one - there are no friends in international relations, 
only converging interests... 
 
"Rule number two - money can attract certain government officials 
and countries, but to a certain point and certain limits... 
 
"Rule number three - every sign of support is relative, regardless 
of how much money or how many hugs are exchanged... 
 
"Lastly but not least, rule number four - in local or international 
politics, there are no small competitors!... 
 
"... Final comment for Chavez - it is still uncertain which country 
will finally obtain the UN Security Council seat. But whether he 
succeeds or not, he should review his diplomatic handbook and check 
whether his team is the best for his administration and his 
country... 
 
"Post script for Bush - do not fall on the temptation of making the 
same mistake Chavez made, which is confusing the votes obtained with 
support. Remember rule number one - they only express the 
convergence of multiple and diverse national interests." 
 
- "Bush and Chavez vs. limits on power" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" carries an opinion piece by writer 
Alberto Benegas Lynch Jr., who writes (10/17) "It is hard for me to 
write these lines. I admire the US tradition. The vision of the 
Founding Fathers of this nation is really extraordinary. 
 
"However, I have to denounce again the abominable procedures of the 
current administration, which contradict every tradition honoring 
individual liberties. 
 
"... It is sad to acknowledge that there is a shivering and 
worrisome similarity between Bush and Chavez regarding abuse of 
power." 
 
- "Bolivia - antagonisms tinted with ink and rhetoric" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
comments (10/14) "... Reality has become incredibly tough for 
Morales. If many have something to win in his plans, there is a 
small group that believes it has everything to lose, particularly a 
deeply regressive national income distribution. Of course, this fear 
is out-of-proportion both in Bolivia and in other parts, but they do 
not get it wrong if they believe that they will lose something in a 
national reorganization. 
 
"This minority thinks that secession is not a bad idea. Why would 
they not think that a coup d'etat is not advisable? The racist 
element is also present. Beyond the certainty of their criticism, 
those sectors do not digest an indigenous president. Also, the 
attacks against Lula or Hugo Chavez hide class components." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "IRA and ETA, conflicts of other times" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (10/14) "The two oldest armed 
conflicts of Western Europe are making progress towards a possible 
peaceful evolution although with different degrees of progress and 
difficulties. 
 
"... Both the UK and Spain are societies that have managed to solve 
their historic problems through dialogue. 
 
"On the other hand, the economic prosperity of Ireland and the 
Basque provinces is a strong impetus to overcome old nationalistic 
disputes and to channel national claims through democratic 
institutions. There are also other reasons for concern, such as 
terrorism, which has not emerged from domestic history but from 
global conflicts." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA