VZCZCXRO5025
PP RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #2277/01 3041050
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P 311050Z OCT 06
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 002277 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL ELECTIONS: LULA RE-ELECTED IN DECISIVE 
VICTORY 
 
REF: A. BRASILIA 2193 
     ¶B. BRASILIA 2157 
     ¶C. BRASILIA 2100 
 
¶1.  (U)  Summary.  President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 
(Workers Party - PT) was re-elected to a second four year 
term on October with 59,295,042 votes, or 60.83 percent of 
the vote.  Challenger Geraldo Alckmin (Brazilian Social 
Democracy Party - PSDB) received 37,543,178 votes, or 39.17 
percent.  Lula's victory follows a hard-fought campaign that 
went to a second round after the mid-September revelation of 
a political scandal deprived Lula of a first round win on 
October 1.  After four additional weeks of campaigning Lula 
was able to defeat Alckmin by arguing that under Lula's 
government, the poor have fared better than they would under 
Alckmin and by accusing Alckmin of plans for large scale 
privatization (which Alckmin denied.)  Lula won 19 of the 26 
states and the Federal District.  Ten states had second round 
gubernatorial contests.  Roseana Sarney, daughter of former 
president Sarney, lost her bid to become governor of 
Maranhao, and will return to her Senate seat.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Lula was re-elected in second round voting with 
victories in 19 states and the Federal District, including 
several states he lost in the first round.  As in round one, 
he won the whole northeast, all of the north except tiny 
Roraima.  Alckmin still carried much of the south, but Lula 
won over the Federal District, Goias, Mato Grosso, Acre, and 
Rondonia. 
 
¶3.  (U) Ten of the twenty-seven gubernatorial races went to a 
second round.  The surprise was the loss of Roseana Sarney to 
become governor of Maranhao, putting an end to a forty year 
period of family dominance.  Her father is former president 
Jose Sarney (PMDB - Brazilian Democracy Movement Party), 
currently a senator from Amapa.  Despite her loss, Roseana 
retains her seat in the Senate, where she was elected in 2002 
to an eight year term from the Liberal Front Party (PFL). 
Some observers now expect her to switch to the PMDB after she 
campaigned actively for Lula and was threatened with 
sanctions by the PFL leadership.  In Pernambuco, Eduardo 
Campos, grandson of Miguel Arraes, a legendary figure in the 
state, was elected governor.  In Rio Grande do Sul, Yeda 
Crusius will become both the first woman and the first PSDB 
politician to govern the state. 
 
¶4.  (U) Gubernatorial results 
Goias: Alcides Rodrigues (Progressive Party) over Maguito 
Vilela (PMDB) 
Maranhao: Jackson Lago (Democratic Workers Party - PDT) over 
Roseana Sarney (PFL) 
Para: Ana Julia Carepa (PT) over Almir Gabriel (PSDB) 
Parana: Roberto Requiao (PMDB) over Osmar Dias (PDT) 
Paraiba: Cassio Cunha Lima (PSDB) over Jose Maranhao (PMDB) 
Pernambuco: Eduardo Campos (Brazilian Socialist Party - PSB) 
over Jose Mendonca Filho (PFL) 
Rio de Janeiro: Sergio Cabral (PMDB) over Denise Frossard 
(Socialist Peoples Party - PPS) 
Rio Grande do Norte: Wilma de Faria (PSB) over Garibaldi 
Filho (PMDB) 
Rio Grande do Sul: Yeda Crusius (PSDB) over Olivio Dutra (PT) 
Santa Catarina: Luiz Henrique da Silveira (PMDB) over 
Espiridiao Amin (PP) 
 
¶5.  (U) The gubernatorial results will affect the alignment 
of power in the Senate, since several senators were 
candidates for governor or vice governor.  After round one, 
the PFL was the largest party, but after round two, the PFL 
and PMDB have 18 senators each.  If Roseana Sarney (PFL) 
switches to the PMDB, she will make the PMDB the largest 
party, giving it the right to choose the president of the 
senate.  The government v. opposition balance in the senate 
is now less clear than after round one, when the opposition 
gained a clear majority.  The pro-government senators could 
still hang on to their majority. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Comment.  President Lula took pains in his victory 
speech to hold out an olive branch to the opposition, stating 
that his win is a win for all Brazilians, and that there are 
now no adversaries.  He said the adversary is social 
injustice.  He will reach to all "congressional forces" 
during his second term with no "veto" against anyone.  If 
Lula is successful, he may avoid the "third round" scenario 
that some opposition figures advocate, in which they will 
hound him on corruption issues, and press for a court 
 
BRASILIA 00002277  002 OF 002 
 
 
decision over misconduct by his campaign.  Some analysts are 
already signaling that leading PSDB figures such as Jose 
Serra and Aecio Neves will opt for conciliation in order not 
to appear obstructionist, and to enhance their own 
presidential chances in 2010.  End comment. 
Sobel