VZCZCXRO5493
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1719/01 2931032
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201032Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9584
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1213
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RXFEAA/HQ AFSOUTH NAPLES IT
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001719 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM SR YI
SUBJECT: EMBASSY BELGRADE'S GOTV CAMPAIGN 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (SBU) Embassy Belgrade has launched a comprehensive "Get Out The 
Vote" (GOTV) campaign for the likely imminent Serbian parliamentary 
and presidential elections.  This campaign -- which relies heavily 
on NDI, IRI, and local NGOs -- will seek to combat voter apathy and 
frustration in an effort to bolster the democratic forces against 
the nationalist/extremist parties. The campaign consists primarily 
of a non-partisan effort that will intensify once election dates 
have been set.  USG funds will also support a smaller effort (voter 
education and a parallel vote count) for the constitutional 
referendum on October 28th and 29th. End Summary. 
 
Budget Breakdown 
---------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) The GOTV campaign is a multi-pronged effort providing 
non-partisan support to democratic parties combined with voter 
education and outreach through media and direct mailings.  USAID has 
budgeted up to 2 million dollars for the effort with 1.4 million 
dollars split between the International Republic Institute (IRI) and 
the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and another 600,000 dollars 
allotted to the Institute for Sustainable Communities (ISC) for 
civil society and advocacy programs. 
 
Pre-Election Activities by NDI and IRI 
-------------------------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) NDI and IRI have already begun preparatory GOTV activities 
and have established a timeline with activities steadily increasing 
as the elections dates, once they are established, draw closer. 
Should elections occur in December, NDI and IRI efforts will 
accelerate swiftly once the dates are announced.  The heart of these 
efforts will aim at recapturing the 600,000 plus democratic voters 
who became disenchanted with the process in the aftermath of 
Milosevic's ouster, as well as the burgeoning wake of disaffected 
democrats reflected in current polling.  This will be achieved 
through a variety of pre-election activities, designed to connect 
with voters, including a non-partisan phone bank, non-partisan door 
to door and direct mail efforts, and training/technical assistance 
for the democratic parties in an effort to build their capacity at a 
local level.  The phone bank will be conducted by a paid marketing 
firm and will survey voter opinions about important issues and 
participation; relevant information collected will then be shared 
with the parties.  All activities will be done in accordance with 
Serbian election law, which prohibits direct financial or material 
assistance to political parties. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) As a supplement to NDI and IRI's regular programming 
assistance to all of the major parties, part of the GOTV effort will 
also be expanded to provide consultants to smaller pro-democratic 
parties who have identifiable constituencies, but lack the resources 
to maximize their voice.  The job of these consultants will be to 
advise leadership, coordinate campaign activities, and train 
activists. Assisted parties will include the Serbia Roma Union 
(URS), the Vojvodina Alliance of Hungarians (SVM), and the Sandzak 
Democratic Party (SnDP). 
 
Referendum Complicates GOTV Efforts 
----------------------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) The Constitutional referendum could potentially complicate 
GOTV efforts. The agreement forged by Kostunica with all of the 
major parties on the Constitution was seen as circumventing public 
debate. Provisions on Kosovo supported by the Radical Party and 
vague and non-committal language on key issues has angered key 
democratic constituencies. Influential Democratic leaders in 
Vojvodina and several minority leaders have already called for a 
boycott.  Meanwhile, the government has launched an aggressive and 
well-funded referendum campaign and stacked the electoral commission 
with Milosevic-era apparatchiks who are well-versed in "managing" an 
election.  In the event of disputes about the fairness and 
transparency of the referendum, these could further undermine 
support for the larger democratic parties among regional democrats 
and minorities.  The result could be particularly harmful to the DS, 
which would be tarred by its association with Radicals in support 
for breaking the rules in adopting the constitution. 
 
ISC Activities and Parallel Vote Count 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶6.  (SBU) We have set aside a small part of the GOTV funding for the 
Constitutional referendum.  ISC is still in the process of 
finalizing its pre-election activities, which will involve voter 
education and an election awareness campaign through civil society 
and media efforts. Of the 600,000 dollars allotted to the 
organization, approximately 100,000 will be applied toward programs 
for the constitutional referendum, and the remaining 500,000 will be 
used for general elections.  Regarding pre-referendum activities, 
 
BELGRADE 00001719  002 OF 002 
 
 
ISC has already approved funding (19,000 dollars) for CeSID, a 
domestic election-monitoring and polling NGO, to conduct a survey of 
voters' attitudes toward the new Constitution and likelihood of 
voter participation in the referendum.  In addition, ISC will, along 
with other donors, support a partial parallel vote count 
(facilitated by CeSID).  Details about cost-sharing are still being 
finalized, but ISC will likely contribute 50,000 dollars to this 
effort. 
 
Embassy Role 
------------ 
¶7.  (SBU) In addition to NDI/IRI and civil society components, the 
Ambassador will lead our overall embassy efforts to promote GOTV 
themes and reinforce outreach to various political parties.  We will 
make it very clear in the run-up to the Constitutional referendum 
that we will support a fair and transparent democratic process and 
not refrain from speaking out against gross irregularities and 
improper practices. 
 
GOTV Campaign Likely to Be an Uphill Battle 
------------------------------------------- 
¶8.  (SBU) Like the GOTV campaign for the 2004 Serbian presidential 
elections, the objective of the current campaign is to increase 
democratic turnout; however, this campaign is shaping up to be a far 
more difficult battle for the democrats and their voters.  In 2004, 
efforts were more easily focused, concentrating on a few areas which 
contained a large density of democratic voters.  Now, with the drop 
in democratic voter participation, it will be necessary to also 
focus our efforts in non-traditionally democratic voting areas.  The 
Constitution could also complicate collaborative efforts among the 
larger democratic parties, who are supporting the Referendum, and 
the regional and minority parties, some of which are supporting a 
boycott.