VZCZCXRO9233
OO RUEHAST
DE RUEHBW #1626/01 2771019
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041019Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9489
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001626 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO'S PM EXITS THE CENTER STAGE 
 
 
BELGRADE 00001626  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
This is a Podgorica cable. It has not been cleared with 
Embassy Belgrade. 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: President Vujanovic announced October 3 
that Milo Djukanovic has declined to accept a mandate to 
continue as Prime Minister.  The announcement ends 
Djukanovic's 16 years at the center of the Montenegrin 
stage, as either Prime Minister or President.  Djukanovic 
will remain as the head of the ruling Democratic Party of 
Socialists (DPS).  The opposition Serbian People's Party 
(SNS) observed that "even if Milo was in Alaska, he would 
still be the most powerful political force in 
Montenegro."  Media speculates that the DPS Main Board, 
which will meet on October 4 and October 5, is likely to 
name current Finance Minister Igor Luksic to become PM; 
other candidates are possible.  Luksic is a young, highly 
educated "technocrat" without a strong party position, 
and no hint of scandal.  End summary. 
 
Buzz to Announcement 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The departure of PM Milo Djukanovic from the 
central positions of the Montenegrin government has long 
been discussed, suggested and even urged by many, 
demanded by the opposition, and occasionally hinted at by 
Djukanovic himself.  Under Djukanovic's leadership his 
party, the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), enjoyed 
marked success this year in leading Montenegro to 
independence in May and then in holding on to a clear 
Parliamentary majority in September.  Surprisingly, the 
ruling coalition was not ready with a cabinet after the 
September 10 results were official shortly after the vote 
-- the first faint hint that Djukanovic might be stepping 
down.  President Vujanovic's very brief announcement 
midday on October 3, that Djukanovic would not continue 
as Prime Minister, still caught many in Montenegro by 
surprise, as the DPS had been keeping the substance of 
the discussions of the DPS senior leadership very quiet. 
 
New Prime Minister 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) Local media has recently begun to speculate that 
Igor Luksic, Finance Minister since early 2004, may get 
the nod as next Prime Minister. Luksic has declined 
comment until after a decision is made public. However, 
other names are still in play, including Justice Minister 
Sturanovic and Deputy PM Gvozdenovic. Former Serbia and 
Montenegro State Union President Svetozar Marovic has 
confirmed that he will not be Prime Minister, nor will he 
take a seat in the Parliament. The DPS Main Board is 
expected to announce the name of the new Prime Minister 
after either its October 4 or October 5 meeting. 
Coincidentally, October 5 marks nine years to the date 
after Djukanovic won his first election after breaking 
with Slobodan Milosevic. 
 
Biographic Note on Luksic 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Igor Luksic was born in 1976 in Bar, Montenegro, 
and was awarded a PhD in economics in September 2005. 
After serving as Deputy Foreign Minister for SaM in 2003, 
he became Finance Minister in early 2004, the position he 
currently holds.  He speaks English fluently.  While a 
loyal party member of the DPS, his less a politician and 
more a "technocrat," interested in the smooth and 
effective functioning of his ministry.  Unlike 
Djukanovic, a lightning rod for opposition attacks and 
tainted by hints and rumors of scandal, Luksic has 
generally good relations with the opposition and a clean 
reputation, although he was criticized for the late 
release of campaign funds to the parties for the 
parliament campaign this year. 
 
Party Reactions 
--------------- 
 
¶5. (U) DPS's coalition partner, the Social Democratic 
Party (SDP), has supported Djukanovic's decision to 
withdraw, adding that it should not be "over dramatized." 
Ferhat Dinosa, of the Democratic Party of Albanians (DUA) 
said ethnic minorities shall lose their significant 
protector, and that if Djukanovic and vice-president of 
DPS Svetozar Marovic were not in state positions, 
democratic processes in Montenegro and its integration 
into European structures would suffer.  (Comment: This 
 
BELGRADE 00001626  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
reflects Dinosa's close relationship with Djukanovic and 
the DPS, and would not be the unanimous view of the 
Albanian community.  End comment.) The opposition 
Movement for Changes (PzP), Liberal Party, and Democratic 
Serbian Party (DSS) welcomed Djukanovic's decision, PzP 
saying it would reduce political tensions, DSS calling it 
a sign that the "last totalitarian regime in Europe" was 
ended. The opposition People's Party (NS) saw the 
decision as resulting from "pressure from the 
international community," adding its view that Djukanovic 
will want to come back as President. The Serbian People's 
Party (SNS) observed that "even if Milo was in Alaska, he 
would still be the most powerful political force in 
Montenegro." 
 
Regional Reactions 
------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) Prime Minister Adnan Terzic of Bosnia and 
Herzegovina stated that he was sorry that Djukanovic was 
stepping down, as Djukanovic contributed to the 
stabilization of the region during the last couple of 
years. He believes that it will not have any implications 
on the politics in the region, for he knows that 
Djukanovic is still the strongest political figure in 
Montenegro. "He, as an experienced politician, knows that 
he has to leave when he is at his best", stated Terzic. 
Albanian PM Sali Berisa stated that Djukanovic was a 
brave politician who was a friend of the western 
countries in the most difficult days, who dared to oppose 
Slobodan Milosevic, and restored Montenegrin 
independence. Leader of the Hungarian Liberals in the COE 
Parliamentary Assembly, Mathias Ershi, stated that 
"nobody is irreplaceable in democracy, which always has 
an alternative". 
 
Grey Cloud from Italy 
--------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) It has long been rumored that Djukanovic remained 
so long in office at least in part to shield himself from 
prosecution. In the 1990s, during UN sanctions and 
afterwards, the GoM allegedly benefited financially from 
cigarette smuggling into Italy.  Allegations that 
Djukanovic was directly involved in the operations have 
hung over him like a grey cloud, and led to his being 
named in the Italian courts as a potential witness (but 
never indicted). The Italian P.O. told P.O. October 2 
that the remaining, long-pending case is being pursued by 
a dogged and independent prosecutor in Bari, who has no 
support from the GOI for his efforts. As to Djukanovic's 
involvement, the Italian P.O. said the "evidence" was 
taped phone calls, supposedly of PM Djukanovic talking to 
someone in Italy about cigarettes - enough to besmirch a 
reputation, but probably not enough to support a criminal 
case. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Djukanovic's departure marks the end of an era, 
for Montenegro and for the former Yugoslavia.  Clearly 
committed to economic reform, Djukanovic has never 
completely escaped his roots in the Communist Party, or 
his start as an ally of Milosevic, despite the absolute 
break with Milosevic in 1997. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The view that Djukanovic will remain the central 
political force in Montenegro, despite leaving government 
office, is widely held.  Some note that he will remain as 
head of the ruling party, in a state where that formerly 
was the key political position. Others stress his 
political influence and undeniable charisma.  Post 
however believes that while the next Prime Minister may 
listen, even closely, to Djukanovic, especially in the 
first few months, no successor will be content with the 
role of a puppet.  Moreover, in independent Montenegro, 
the international community will pay attention to the 
holders of government -- not party -- office, enhancing 
the power of the new Prime Minister. It should be noted 
that the Prime Minister plays the lead role in advancing 
reform. Additionally, post sees the possibility of an 
expanded role for President Vujanovic, who has been 
content to stay in Djukanovic's shadow, but may assert 
his position's prerogatives more strongly with him gone. 
End comment. 
 
POLT