VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #3614/01 2961003
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231003Z OCT 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2715
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5814
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7029

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003614 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPRK NUCLEAR TEST, TAIWAN'S "SECOND 
REPUBLIC CONSTITUTION" 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage October 21-23 on the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral 
races; on the split between the KMT and the People First Party (PFP) 
leadership over December's Taipei mayoral election; on the follow-on 
movements of the "Oust Bian" campaign; and on the difficulties that 
lie ahead for Taiwan following the suspension of the WTO's Doha 
round of trade negotiations. 
 
With regard to the U.S. arms procurements bill, the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times," Taiwan's largest-circulation daily, ran a banner 
headline on page two October 21 that read "Orange [i.e. PFP] Refuses 
to Sign on Negotiation [Results]; Trouble Arises for [U.S.] Arms 
Procurement Bill to Be Reviewed by Procedural Committee."  In 
addition, several papers reported October 22 on a letter by former 
U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to the Taiwan 
authorities recently, asking Taiwan to open the bidding for the P-3C 
antisubmarine aircraft procurement to other U.S. suppliers, rather 
than designating Lockheed as the only source.  The pro-status quo 
"China Times" also ran a banner headline on page five on October 23 
that read "Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Lobbying for Arms 
Dealer; Armitage Exposes Inside Stories of State Department; Bian 
Finds [the Information] Very Useful." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times" 
editorial said that, given China's  mediation, which has 
successfully resolved the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, 
the world has again witnessed how Washington and Beijing have worked 
together in maintaining the status quo in East Asia.  An editorial 
in the limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification, 
English-language "China Post" also commented on North Korea's recent 
nuclear test, saying "the danger of a potential regional nuclear 
race cannot be ruled out."  In addition, Koo Kuan-min, former senior 
advisor to President Chen, discussed the idea of a "Second Republic 
constitution" in a weekly column in the "Liberty Times."  Koo called 
on the Taiwan people to demonstrate a strong collective will to pass 
a popular vote on Taiwan's new constitution, in an attempt to make 
the United States understand and accept this new reality in Taiwan's 
democracy.  End summary. 
 
¶3. DPRK Nuclear Test 
 
A) "North Korea's Nuclear Crisis Is Resolved, But Disputes Still 
Remain" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (10/23): 
 
"Given the mediation of Chinese special envoys, Pyongyang finally 
promised that it would not perform a second nuclear test.  This 
development is akin to having removed a major part of the fuse of 
the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.  Judging from the 
atmosphere of the press conference jointly hosted by U.S. Secretary 
of State Condoleezza Rice and Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing, 
it seemed that the United States and China have again worked 
together and concluded a 'crisis management' over North Korea's 
nuclear crisis, except that none of the core disputes has been 
resolved, and their best achievement was merely to stop the 
situation from further deteriorating.  This kind of deadlock will 
persist for a certain period of time.  Even though Taiwan may be a 
mere observer in this crisis, it has nonetheless again witnessed how 
Washington and Beijing have worked together to manage all the 
disputes in the region. 
 
"Without a doubt, North Korea is a genuine 'troublemaker' in East 
Asia.  It has no intention of integrating itself into the 
international community, nor has it shown any interest in 
participating in any dialogue in the region.  Neither does it want 
to be restricted by any rules of the game. ...  Pyongyang has 
several strategies, and none of its neighboring countries can find a 
way to deal with them:  The first strategy is that Pyongyang always 
picks and toys with the biggest and most sensitive bargaining chip 
it has.  Nuclear tests and ballistic missiles tests are both 
explosive means, and every time Pyongyang plays with these means, it 
is sure to make the headlines of global media. ...  The second 
strategy is Pyongyang's 'unpredictability'; to put it in plain 
language, it means one will never guess what it plans to do next. 
Pyongyang may promise that it will no longer perform any nuclear 
tests one day, and perhaps after a few days, it will [express] 
regret and get ready for talks.  It will appear to be willing to 
talk this moment, and the next moment it might refuse to go to the 
negotiation table. You'll never guess what surprising move it will 
take the next moment.  Pyongyang's third strategy is that 
intimidation on North Korea will never work.  To put it in plain 
language, it means 'You wouldn't dare hit me.'  The United States 
attacked Iraq once it said it intended to, but it never dares to 
behave the same way toward North Korea. ... 
 
"Many international observers agree that Beijing is the biggest 
REPUBLIC CONSTITUTION" 
 
loser in the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula this time, 
because the international community expects China to wield its 
influence to force Pyongyang to return to the negotiation table. 
But the games Pyongyang was playing got bigger and bigger, 
indicating that Beijing's influence over Pyongyang has greatly 
declined. ...   Such a judgment may seem accurate, but it is useless 
as a conclusion, because it was after all Tang Jiaxuan's visit to 
and negotiation with Pyongyang personally that has resulted in Kim 
Jong-Il's promise that there would not be a second nuclear test.  In 
other words, in the end, the window that can force Pyongyang to 
submit has to be opened from Beijing's side. 
 
"For Taiwan, the conclusion of the nuclear crisis on the Korean 
Peninsula has made it witness again how Washington and Beijing have 
worked together in maintaining the status quo in East Asia.  Even 
though the United States and China have differences with regard to 
their separate positions in resolving disputes in the region, their 
positions regarding 'maintaining the status quo' have come closer. 
Pyongyang attempted to alter the status quo, but the move has 
consequently drawn Beijing and Washington closer to each other, and 
the rein that has been put on Pyongyang's neck has been gathered up 
more tightly.  It follows that Taiwan will likely achieve nothing 
should it attempt to change the 'status quo' jointly maintained by 
the United States and China." 
 
B) "Beijing's North Korean Dilemma" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/21): 
 
"Beijing has been in an unenviable situation since Pyongyang's 
nuclear test on Oct. 9.  Mainland China, which is North Korea's only 
ally as well as its major provider of economic aid, was given only a 
20 minute advance warning prior to the underground test.  It's an 
embarrassment, if not humiliation, for Chinese president Hu Jintao 
who is clearly at a loss about how to deal with this 'ally' for whom 
hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops had died in the 1950-53 
Korea War.  To punish or not to punish the Hermit Kingdom and its 
Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il is a dilemma for Beijing.  All the major 
powers, especially the United States, are waiting to see what kind 
of action Beijing will take to resolve the North Korean nuclear 
crisis, as Beijing is the only country which wields influence over 
Pyongyang. ... 
 
"Now it's water under the bridge. Willy-nilly, the world will live 
with the unpleasant fact that Pyongyang is the ninth member of the 
nuclear club.  It is interesting to watch who will follow suit, now 
that the door has been blasted open by Pyongyang.  It is evident 
that Iran, another member of the axis of evil, is on the threshold 
despite threats from Washington.  A nuclear Korean peninsula is 
ominous because South Korea and Japan are under the direct threat of 
Pyongyang's weapons of mass destruction.  Mainland China will be 
particularly uneasy with the bomb in its backyard.  Who believes 
that Kim's bomb is aimed only at the United States?  The danger of a 
potential regional nuclear race cannot be ruled out." 
 
¶4. Taiwan's "Second Republic Constitution" 
 
"The Conception and Implementation of a 'Second Republic 
Constitution'" 
 
Koo Kuan-min, former Senior Adviser to the President, noted in the 
"Weekly Comment" in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" 
[circulation: 600,000] (10/22): 
 
"... We all know that the two most important objectives for Taiwan 
to become a normal country are the rectification of its name and the 
writing a new constitution.  However, there are two major obstacles 
that are hindering Taiwan from becoming a normal country, namely, 
the United States and China.  As we are pushing the democratic 
engineering of a new constitution right now, we have clearly felt 
the pressure from the United States. ... 
 
"Only by obtaining a clear understanding of U.S. policy principles 
can we pursue our national interests pragmatically.  Three months 
ago, I raised the idea of 'freezing the Republic of China 
Constitution and instituting a second constitution' to the U.S. side 
for the first time.  This idea mainly stemmed from the 'freezing' of 
the National Unification Council. ...  But the United States still 
has strong doubts about Taiwan's plan to write a new constitution, 
primarily because it would be akin to substantive 'Taiwan 
independence' should the declaration of 'sovereignty' be written 
into the new constitution.  Such a move will contradict the three 
major principles of the U.S. cross-Strait policy. ... 
 
"In addition to elaborating on the idea of 'freezing [the ROC 
Constitution],' I also told the United States that if they continue 
to pressure Taiwan not to push certain pragmatic plans to turn 
REPUBLIC CONSTITUTION" 
 
Taiwan into a normal country, and if they cannot give the Taiwan 
people hopes and dreams for the future, the Taiwan people will 
really give up hope someday and turn their support to Ma Ying-jeou 
and the KMT who advocate 'ultimate unification' [with China].  [I 
asked them] if this is what they are happy to see, Taiwan annexed by 
China and becoming part of China?  Will this meet the United States' 
national interests in the Western Pacific?  The United States was 
able to understand my elaboration and even asked me 'Have people in 
your country discussed your idea of a second constitution?' 
 
"The United States is a democratic country, and Americans are 
clearly aware of the importance of public opinion; they are gravely 
concerned about the process of pushing for a new constitution.  The 
Taiwan people, therefore, must demonstrate a strong collective will 
and pass the 'new constitution' via a popular vote.  I believe that 
the United States will consequently accept this new reality about 
Taiwan's democracy, because this is the true meaning of democracy - 
namely, democratic rights for the people. ..." 
 
YOUNG