VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #3585/01 2920922
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 190922Z OCT 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2666
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5796
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7011

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003585 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPRK NUCLEAR TEST, PRESIDENT CHEN 
SHUI-BIAN'S "SECOND REPUBLIC" IDEA 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies gave 
significant coverage October 19 to Taipei prosecutors' raid of the 
Chinatrust Financial Holding Company on Wednesday and the detention 
of two senior officers in charge of financial and legal affairs. 
News coverage also focused on the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung 
mayoral race; on the Department of Health's sudden decision 
Wednesday to ban hairy crabs carried by passengers from China after 
traces of carcinogens were detected in these crabs; and on further 
investigation into the Presidential Office's fund for state affairs 
case.  The pro-status quo "China Times" ran a banner headline on 
page four that said "Protests to Oust Bian Give a Lift to [Frank] 
Hsieh and [James] Soong But Do Damage to Hau [Lung-pin]." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a column in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" commented on North Korea's recent 
nuclear test, saying that China is the first to bear the brunt of 
the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.  A separate "Apple 
Daily" opinion piece said the nuclear test has confirmed the urgency 
for Taiwan to buy weapons from the United States.  An editorial in 
the limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan 
News" discussed President Chen's idea of a "Second Republic 
Constitution," saying the concept can "help bridge the notions of 
constitutional 'amendment' and constitutional 'enactment.'"  End 
summary. 
 
¶3. DPRK Nuclear Test 
 
A) "Beijing Has Changed from Observer to Victim" 
 
Columnist Antonio Chiang commented in the mass-circulation "Apple 
Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (10/19): 
 
"On the surface, the main characters in the North Korean nuclear 
crisis are Pyongyang and Washington.  But to judge from a more 
substantive perspective, it is not the United States, but China, 
that is the first to bear the brunt of it.  This is because if the 
United States adjusts its relations with North Korea, conflicts 
between the two sides can be easily reduced or even eliminated.  But 
Beijing and Pyongyang are neighbors, and a Pyongyang in possession 
of nuclear weapons will forge permanent restraints on China's 
strategic security. 
 
"Beijing's reaction this time has far surpassed the expectations of 
the United States and Japan, and has won a positive view from the 
international community, which believes China has demonstrated a 
responsible attitude.  In reality, however, Beijing's attitude 
toward North Korea has long faced a dilemma.  The White House has 
been stretched too thin and has long desired to treat the North 
Korea issue as a regional security issue, hoping that China will 
shoulder more responsibility.  Strategy experts in Beijing are 
currently arguing about how China could cope with the [nuclear] 
crisis. ... 
 
"The motive behind Pyongyang's development of nuclear weapons may be 
aimed at the United States, Japan, or others.  But no country will 
ive up nuclear weapons once it possesses them, and international 
politics is evolving every day.  ...  North Korea has a much 
stronger nationalistic sentiment than China, and history shows that 
North Korea has been subjected to more bullying than China.  China 
can develop nuclear weapons for its nationalism, so why cannot North 
Korea?  When China's ally, Pakistan, detonated nuclear devices in 
1998, China did not try to stop it.  Why has Beijing adopted a 
double standard now?  Was it any different from the hegemonic 
thinking of U.S. imperialism?  These are the questions Beijing will 
find very difficult to answer." 
 
B) "Nuclear Crisis Confirms Urgency of Arms Procurements" 
 
DPP China Affairs Director Lai I-chung opined in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (10/19): 
 
"North Korea's nuclear test on October 9 has again escalated the 
security crisis in Northeast Asia.  For Taiwan, which is about a 
two-and-a-half-hour flight from Pyongyang, the new changes in 
geostrategy in East Asia triggered by Pyongyang's crisis, as well as 
its impact on Taiwan's regional security, have confirmed the need 
for Taiwan to buy the three items of weaponry [from the United 
States]. 
 
"North Korea performed a nuclear test in October and test-fired 
long-range ballistic missiles in July.  We therefore cannot exclude 
the possibility that North Korea may be have the capability to 
launch nuclear missiles.  Even though there is no direct conflict 
between Taiwan and North Korea, Pyongyang may still be likely to 
launch missiles when tension escalates or a war breaks out in the 
future.  If ballistic missiles hit Taiwan accidentally due to 
imprecision or miscalculation, Taiwan, which has zero missile 
defense capability and no hardware or software to link itself with 
SHUI-BIAN'S "SECOND REPUBLIC" IDEA 
 
information from the United States and Japan, will be unable to 
defend itself or get early warning about the missiles.  All the 
more, given the lack of relevant information, Taiwan may likely 
misjudge the situation and cope with it as if the missiles are the 
harbinger of Chinese attacks against the island, and unexpectedly 
turn the nuclear crisis into a crisis across the Taiwan Strait. ... 
 
"In addition, the United Nations has just approved international 
sanctions against North Korea, including inspecting all airplanes 
and ships going in and out of North Korea.  Since the waters on both 
sides of the island of Taiwan are important gateways for North 
Korea, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, and Kaohsiung Harbor used to 
be a harbor at which North Korean ships chose to berth, there are 
possibilities that North Korean ships might enter the Taiwan Strait 
to dodge checks by the United States and Japan on the high seas. 
China may also interfere with such a situation.  Since [Taiwan's] 
three arms deals with the United States include key interfaces to 
link Taiwan with U.S. and Japanese information, and they involve, to 
a certain extent, early-warning capabilities, the deals may be 
helpful for Taiwan in handling North Korean vessels.  If Taiwan 
fails to complete those arms deals in time, ... it may cause 
difficulties for Taiwan in interacting with the United States and 
Japan and create new variables in the Taiwan Strait, which may 
increase new uncertainties [for the area]. ..." 
 
¶4. President Chen Shui-bian's "Second Republic" Idea 
 
"Time to Proclaim 'Second Republic'" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (10/19): 
 
"... The concept of a 'Second Republic Constitution' can help bridge 
the notions of constitutional 'amendment' and constitutional 
'enactment' and include a comprehensive revamping that can both 
remove past 'provisional' articles or clauses or obsolete and 
anachronistic features.  Such an option could meet the needs of 
advocates of a 'new' constitution while respecting the feelings of 
citizens with an emotional or political attachment to the R.O.C. 
moniker.  Nevertheless, the thinking behind President Chen's mention 
of Koo's concept of enacting a 'Second Republic Constitution' has 
also disappointed some elder statesman in the 'pan-green' camp, 
especially since this path would not feature a 'rectification' of 
Taiwan's official name into the 'Republic of Taiwan' or more simple 
'Taiwan.' ... 
 
"Moreover, we believe that re-engineering of Taiwan's constitutional 
order is urgently needed and should focus primarily on the question 
of the central government system and enhance protections for human 
and civic rights.  We believe there is little to be gained by 
raising qusstions of our formal national title or to try to reinvent 
the wheel of the process of constitutional revision, projects which 
could not possibly be approved by the opposition Kuomintang-People 
First Party controlled Legislature. ..." 
 
YOUNG