VZCZCXYZ0016
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #3549/01 2900856
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170856Z OCT 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2619
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5780
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6995

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003549 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S "SECOND 
REPUBLIC" IDEA, U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies put their focus 
October 17 on President Chen Shui-bian's idea of writing a 
constitution for a "Second Republic;" on the KMT's decision Monday 
to pull back its support for a People First Party proposal on a 
no-confidence vote against Premier Su Tseng-chang; on the KMT-CCP 
Cross-Strait Agricultural Forum held in Boao October 17-18; and on a 
business scandal in which a former financial executive officer of a 
major holding company was taken into custody for violating the 
Banking Law.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's 
largest-circulation daily, ran a banner headline on page four that 
read "Bian Tosses Off [Idea of a] Second Republic, Part of [DPP's] 
Constitutional Reform Strategy."  The pro-unification "United Daily 
News," on the other hand, ran a news story on page two that quoted 
the U.S. State Department as saying Monday that the United States 
does not support Taiwan independence and is opposed to unilateral 
attempts by either side of the Taiwan Strait to alter the status 
quo. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a commentary in the 
pro-status quo "China Times" and a "United Daily News" commentary 
both noted that President Chen's playing with the constitutional 
issue is aimed at replacing former President Lee Teng-hui as the 
paramount leader of Taiwan independence.  An editorial in the 
limited-circulation, conservative, English-language "China Post" 
commented on a recent U.S. Congressional Research Service report on 
Taiwan, saying the report is "realistic and explicit, but it 
underestimates the capabilities of President Chen and his 
strategists."  A separate "China Post" editorial discussed AIT 
Taipei Director Stephen Young's relationship with the pan-Blue camp, 
saying "the blue camp has been angry with the U.S. for breaking a 
promise of not recognizing President Chen's 2004 re-election before 
a recount."  End summary. 
 
¶3. President Chen Shui-bian's "Second Republic" Idea 
 
A) "Constantly Tossing Off New Constitution [Plans] and Calculating 
Carefully, Bian Vies for Becoming Paramount Leader of Independence 
Faction" 
 
Journalist Lin Shu-ling said in an analysis in the pro-status quo 
"China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (10/17): 
 
"After Chen Shui-bian tossed off the idea of a new constitution on 
territorial redefinition on September 24, the communication between 
Taipei and Washington had not stopped until before Double Ten 
National Day.  Now Bian was in a hurry to toss off a 'constitution 
for a Second Republic' and said this does not violate his 'Four 
Noes' pledge to the United States, and his remarks were echoed by 
some people in the DPP Central Headquarters.  What is Bian's plan 
after all? ... 
 
"When judged in terms of final outcomes, Chen is in reality the 
winner in the upheavals caused by the cessation of the National 
Unification Council (NUC) in early 2006.  He succeeded after all by 
getting rid of the 'one No' and his pledge to the United States was 
reduced to 'Four Noes.'  Sources said that, when the Presidential 
Office made the proposal on the territorial issue last month, it 
claimed once again during its negotiations with Washington that 
[such a development] 'would not violate the "Four Noes" pledge.' 
But Washington, unwilling to see a repeat of the NUC matter, put on 
a stern face and very tough attitude, so Bian had to give up [his 
idea] at the last minute.  The Presidential Office was again 
emphasizing this time that a 'Second Republic constitution does not 
violate the "Four Noes" pledge,' so what happens next remains to be 
seen. 
 
"Bian is clearly aware that no matter what new constitutional draft 
is proposed by the DPP, the chances are slim for it to pass even in 
the Legislative Yuan.  But he still does not give up; he wants to 
push it even at the risk of stepping on the red line drawn by the 
United States.  His motivation has to do with how he will be defined 
when he leaves office in 2008. ...  Everyone can tell from the 
fierce competition lately between Lee Teng-hui and Bian that it was 
in reality a battle over who will be the 'paramount leader of the 
independence faction.' ..." 
 
B) "By Constantly Manipulating Issues, Bian Wants to Draw 
Independence Activists to His Side and Replace Lee" 
 
Journalist Huang Ya-shih noted in an analysis in the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (10/17): 
 
"President Chen's recent call to 'consider re-defining [Taiwan's] 
territory' triggered grave concerns from the United States.   On 
Sunday he again tossed off the idea of considering a 'Second 
Republic constitution,' which has touched on the sensitive nerve of 
sovereignty issues.  Even though Bian was simply floating trial 
balloons of 'his ideas,' his move somehow pointed out the path of 
REPUBLIC" IDEA, U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
the remainder of his term:  namely, cross-Strait relations will face 
a hard winter in the next one-and-a-half years. ... 
 
"Chen said at a party celebrating Koo Kuan-min's birthday the other 
day that Koo's dream of 'nation building' ten years ago was 
something that he 'woke up' to see today.  Chen's statement 
implicitly exposed his idea - namely, should the structures of the 
internal and external climates remain the same, Bian will definitely 
use various means in the next one-and-a-half years to try to touch 
the constitutional 'red line' concerning [Taiwan's'] sovereignty. 
..." 
 
¶4. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "U.S., Beware of Chen's Tricks" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/17): 
 
"... To reject persistent calls for his resignation and avoid the 
eventuality of going to jail, Chen is reportedly ready to disrupt 
the status quo by freezing, not abolishing or amending, the ROC 
Constitution in the name of improving the effectiveness of Taiwan's 
governance.  All existing government institutions, including the 
judiciary and the parliament, will be suspended.  There won't be a 
declaration of independence.  Washington will have to come to 
Taiwan's aid should Beijing attack the island.  Chen has promised 
his core supporters to draft a new Taiwan Constitution by the end of 
2006, hold a referendum on it in 2007, and implement it on May 20, 
2008, when he leaves office.  Thus, by successfully freezing the 
Constitution, he will have built a legacy and at the same time 
escaped punishments for corruption. 
 
"Kerry Dumbaugh's report on 'Taiwan-U.S. Political Relations: New 
Strains and Changes' for the U.S. Congress is realistic and 
explicit, but it underestimates the capabilities of President Chen 
and his strategists.  Angels, be prepared for the worst." 
 
B) "Young, Persona Non Grata?" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/17): 
 
"Could the U.S. chief representative in Taiwan be named a persona 
non grata by lawmakers who were mostly U.S.-trained and known for 
their pro-U.S. stance?  Last Wednesday, the day after the famous 
National Day 'disgrace,' some two dozen 'pan-blue' (KMT plus PFP) 
lawmakers actually talked about it. ... 
 
"Differences between the blue camp and Young began to emerge 
immediately after the new AIT head arrived in Taipei in March with a 
clear mission to push for an early conclusion of a robust arms deal 
package offered by President Bush in April 2001.  For two years, the 
Chen administration held up the deal over its cost.  When it was 
finally introduced, with a drastically reduced budget, the deal was 
blocked by the opposition on grounds that such expenditures 'are too 
high, too confrontational, and likely unnecessary in light of 
improvements in cross-strait interactions.' 
 
"There is 'the sea-change in KMT/PFP thinking' after historic visits 
to Beijing by KMT chairman Lien Chan and PFP chairman James Soong in 
¶2005.  The blue camp's support for a security relationship with the 
U.S., an unfulfilled dream of the KMT during its 50-year rule, 
appears in doubt now.  The blue camp has been angry with the U.S. 
for breaking a promise of not recognizing President Chen's 2004 
re-election before a recount. ...  Taiwan's mentor-and-protector is 
also criticized for failing to stop the Chen administration from 
degenerating in all aspects, turning Taiwan into a big mess." 
 
YOUNG