VZCZCXYZ0002
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #3536/01 2890906
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 160906Z OCT 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2600
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5775
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6990

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003536 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPRK NUCLEAR TEST, U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage October 14-16 on President Chen Shui-bian's call to 
consider writing a constitution for a "Second Republic" Sunday; and 
on the UN Security Council's decision to impose sanctions on North 
Korea.  News also focused on President Chen Shui-bian's survival of 
a second presidential recall vote last Friday; on a meeting between 
KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou and People First Party Chairman James 
Soong Sunday on the feasibility of a no-confidence vote on Premier 
Su Tseng-chang and a third recall motion against President Chen; and 
on the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral races.  The 
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's largest-circulation 
daily, ran a banner headline on page two that read "Bian: Institute 
Constitution for 'Second Republic,'" while the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" front-paged a banner headline that said "Bian 
Tosses Off Second Republic Constitution." 
 
In addition, several papers continued over the weekend to cover on 
inside pages the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) report 
released last Tuesday.  These news reports focused on the DPP 
government's suspicion of TECRO representatives in Washington, as 
analyzed in the CRS report, and said Washington is concerned that 
the Taiwan leadership is more inclined "to put personal political 
interests ahead of more strategic objectives and U.S. concerns." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an opinion piece in the 
"United Daily News" said Pyongyang's recent nuclear test will serve 
as an important indicator of the rise and fall of U.S. and Chinese 
forces in East Asia.  An editorial in the limited-circulation, 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" said 
Kim Jong-il has acted as if North Korea "is a real tiger with 
nuclear teeth" and "in the end, the world probably must bite the 
bullet and recognize the fait accompli that is the result of the 
collective blunders made the major players who had either 
miscalculated or underestimated North Korea."  An opinion piece in 
the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" urged the 
United States to make a comprehensive evaluation of the current 
situation in East Asia, while a separate "Taipei Times" opinion 
piece said the nuclear test "has thoroughly proven the 
ineffectiveness of Beijing's effort to be a leader in international 
policy, and destroyed any credibility it had as a reliable 
mediator."  With regard to U.S.-Taiwan relations, columnist Antonio 
Chiang commented on the CRS report and said President Chen's 
credibility problem has done severe harm to Taipei-Washington ties. 
An editorial in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, 
English-language "Taiwan News," on the other hand, said it is 
apparent that Washington was "overly tilting toward Beijing ... for 
the sake of fostering China as a' responsible stakeholder' in the 
international community."  End summary. 
 
¶3. DPRK Nuclear Test 
 
A) "North Korea's Nuclear Test [Results in] Declining Chinese Force, 
Rising U.S. Force" 
 
Chen Hsin-chih, associate professor of political science at National 
Cheng Kung University, opined in the pro-unification "United Daily 
News" [circulation: 400,000] (10/15): 
 
"On the surface, it seems as if the United States has softened its 
punitive measures against North Korea at Beijing's insistence.  But 
Beijing's support for, and participation in, the [UN] resolution to 
impose sanctions on North Korea also indicates that the era in which 
Beijing and Washington worked together to divide their territories 
of power on the Korean Peninsula by the 38th parallel has come to an 
end.  North Korea has always been classified as being within China's 
territory of power, and since the Korean War in 1950 Beijing has 
been the long-time protector of North Korea's safety and its biggest 
supporting partner when it comes to economic and trade exchanges 
with North Korea.  But Pyongyang's test-firing of ballistic missiles 
on July 5 and its recent nuclear test both indicated that North 
Korea no longer trusts Beijing to provide the necessary safety 
umbrella to protect North Korea.  Pyongyang, as a result, has 
switched to developing its nuclear deterrent force as the key tool 
to maintain Kim Jong-il's regime.  North Korea's repeated challenges 
to the international community have all the more highlighted 
Beijing's declining influence on Pyongyang. 
 
"Beijing has failed to restrain North Korea's behavior in recent 
years, and it has failed to resolve Washington's negative impression 
on North Korea.  Beijing has also been in great straits when it 
comes to maintaining the security status quo on the Korean 
Peninsula.  By contrast, Washington's tough attitude toward 
Pyongyang, which has more than once spurred North Korea to adopt 
extreme practices in order to maintain the Kim Jong-il regime, has 
rapidly weakened China's prestige with and influence on North Korea. 
 As a result, Beijing is forced to work with the United States to 
abandon ... its original unilateral strategy to restrain North 
Korea, and to deal with the North Korean nuclear issue by using the 
negotiation methods normally adopted by big countries, in an attempt 
to meet the common interests of Beijing and Washington. ... 
 
"For the future, developments on the Korean Peninsula will serve as 
a touchstone for China and the United States in dealing with 
regional security issues in East Asia, using the negotiation methods 
adopted by big countries.  It will also become an important 
indicator of the rise and fall of U.S. and Chinese forces in East 
Asia." 
 
B) "Who Is the Paper Tiger?" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/14): 
 
"... Although labeled by George W. Bush as a rogue state and member 
of the axis of evil, North Korea is gusty enough to play the game of 
chicken with the world's sole superpower. ... You may call North 
Korea a 'paper tiger' if you like, but it is scary enough to unnerve 
its neighbors, even the United States, which is the real tiger.  Kim 
was able to embarrass Bush by calling his bluff.  The American 
president now looks at the end of his rope on how he could respond 
to Kim's provocation.  More than that, Kim was also able to expose 
to the whole world the hypocrisy of Bush, who invaded Iraq three 
years ago under the pretext that Saddam Hussein possessed 'weapons 
of mass destruction.'  But no traces of WMDs have ever been found 
since the oil-rich country was 'liberated' by the U.S.-led forces. 
 
"Kim has told Bush all along that he has nuclear weapons, and 
long-range missiles, too.  Now, Kim has detonated one for the world 
to see.  Bush is watching this proliferation of WMD with folded 
hands.  Why the double standard?  Why was a sin for Saddam to own 
something he did not have, while it is OK for Kim to test the WMD in 
the face of the world?  Is it because North Korea does not have oil? 
 Equally embarrassed is mainland China, which has put its 
credibility on the line by assuring the world that the best way to 
resolve the nuclear crisis was through quiet diplomacy.  Now the 
Frankenstein's monster created by Beijing has not responded to 
Beijing's entreaties and pressure, and gave Beijing a slap in the 
face.  Now the world is watching how Beijing will clean up the mess 
created by itself.  Beijing, after all, is the only country that 
wields real influence on Pyongyang, because it is the provider of 
food, fuel, and financial support for North Korea. ... 
 
"But Kim has acted as if the North is a real tiger with nuclear 
teeth.  He stands tall despite his diminutive stature, knowing that 
the collapse of his regime would be a nightmare for its neighbors, 
mostly mainland China, South Korea, and Russia who fear for the 
millions of North Korean refugees fleeing the slave land. ...  In 
the end, the world probably must bite the bullet and recognize the 
fait accompli that is the result of the collective blunders made the 
major players who had either miscalculated or underestimated North 
Korea.  With or without sanctions, Pyongyang will not vanish from 
the earth any time soon.  A nuclear-free Korea peninsula will become 
more difficult to achieve, now that the Pandora box is opened." 
 
C) "China Behind North Korea, the 'Reds'" 
 
Paul Lin, a political commentator based in Taipei, opined in the 
pro-independence "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (10/16): 
 
"... China colluded with North Korea in the six-party talks to lie 
to the US and the international community just to buy time to 
increase Pyongyang's military prowess.  And Beijing also allowed the 
North Koreans to move their center for money laundering to Zhuhai, 
China, after shutting down the Macau operation, and last November, 
Hu visited North Korea to give a gift of US$2 billion. ...  The 
nuclear test is a direct threat to the peace of East Asia, and so 
the defenses of South Korea, Japan and Taiwan must all be 
strengthened.  The test is also sure to encourage Iran's arrogance 
and increase tensions in the Middle East. ... 
 
"Beijing is behind North Korea just as it is behind this new 'red 
army' in Taipei.  We shall see if China is willing to punish North 
Korea. ...  The US must make a comprehensive evaluation of the 
current situation in East Asia.  Besides preparing military options, 
it must also have political solutions.  The US can no longer be 
lenient with China, the source of the problem." 
 
D) "North Korean Test Exposes Regional Fault Lines" 
 
Parris Chang, former deputy secretary-general of the National 
Security Council, opined in the pro-independence "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (1015): 
 
"... North Korea's nuclear test is a serious blow to international 
stability in East Asia, and proves that China and the US' efforts to 
prevent North Korea from joining the nuclear club have been massive 
failures.  The international community originally had high hopes 
that the six-party talks would persuade North Korea to give up its 
nuclear aspirations.  However, its test has thoroughly proven the 
ineffectiveness of Beijing's effort to be a leader in international 
policy, and destroyed and credibility it had as a reliable mediator. 
... 
 
"The US' top concern, no the other hand, is that North Korea could 
develop the ability to attack the US with nuclear weapons and 
long-range missiles.  This week's test proves that the 'no war, but 
no peace either' tactic Bush has adopted over the past six years has 
been a complete failure.  Furthermore, the Bush administration's 
reliance on China to act as moderator for the six-party talks has 
been a colossal strategic failure.  It is therefore time for a 
policy reassessment. ... 
 
"North Korea's policy of brinkmanship has forced Japan to once again 
consider amending its pacifist constitution and build up its 
military.  It also has to decide whether or not it wants to develop 
its own nuclear weapons.  North Korea has strengthened Abe's 
position.  He has long held that Japan should amend its 1947 
Constitution so that military forces can fight alongside allies 
overseas.  The draft of the revised Constitution will maintain 
Japan's commitment to peace, but it will also allow for Japan to 
quicken its military buildup and become a normal country." 
 
¶4. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
A) "A-Bian Does Severe Harm to Taiwan-U.S. Relations" 
 
Columnist Antonio Chiang commented in the mass-circulation "Apple 
Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (10/16): 
 
"A-Bian's credibility problem is his Achilles heel.  If society can 
trust his personality, corruption will not be the target of the 
'Oust Bian' campaign.  When it comes to Taipei-Washington ties, 
Bian's personal credibility problem has not only hurt himself but 
also done damage to Taiwan's interests as a whole.   The U.S. 
Congressional Research Service has no substantive political 
influence, but its severe criticism of A-Bian himself did reflect 
mainstream opinion in Washington D.C.  Over the past six years, 
since A-Bian came to power, Washington's patience and goodwill 
toward the Taiwan authorities have been eroded to nearly nothing. 
No matter whether it's the White House, the National Security 
Council, the State Department, or the think tanks, their bad opinion 
of A-Bian has not only been increasing but also almost undivided. 
... 
 
"For A-Bian, this way [i.e., flip-flopping] is the only way to 
survive in the perilous waters of politics, and this is his survival 
strategy.  But having passed one trial after another, he has 
destroyed practically every bridge after he passed the trial.  Now 
almost all the bridges of Taipei-Washington relations have been 
totally destroyed by him." 
 
 
B) "Mutual Respect Key to U.S.-Taiwan Ties" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (10/16): 
 
"Maintenance of healthy and constructive relations between Taiwan 
and the United States has undeniably become more difficult in the 
face of factors such as China's increasing influence on global 
affairs, Washington's 'war on terror,' contending crises in the 
Middle East, the North Korean nuclear crisis, and domestic changes 
in both Taiwan and the U.S.  A newly released report by an analyst 
with the U.S. Congressional Research Service called 'Taiwan-U.S. 
Political Relations:  New Changes and Strains' pointed to both 
structural and political constraints that have complicated ties 
between the right-wing Republican administration of U.S. President 
George W. Bush and the Democratic Progressive Party6 administration 
under President Chen Shui-bian in Taiwan. ... 
 
"We have repeatedly urged the Bush administration to keep in mind 
the importance of striking a balance between its engagement with the 
authoritarian Chinese Communist Party-ruled People's Republic of 
China and Washington's long-time support of Taiwan's democracy. 
Washington's anxiety about cross-strait tension comes largely from 
the perception that Beijing will make a 'dangerous, objectionable, 
and foolish response' to Taiwan's continued affirmation of its 
sovereignty and independence.  Since the Beijing regime is even less 
predictable than democratic Taiwan, it has been easier for 
Washington to attempt to constrain Taipei first or even treat the 
Taiwan leader as a 'trouble-maker' than to address the structural 
problems that cause these tensions. 
 
"President Chen's leadership style may indeed constitute an element 
in past flaps in the Taipei-Washington relationship, but 
unilaterally putting all the blame on Chen's personal style or 
alleged political motives is unfair to Taiwan's 
 
democratically-elected national leader and shows a myopic refusal to 
acknowledge fundamental changes in the nature of cross-strait 
relations. ...  While the Bush administration keeps pressuring 
President Chen and the DPP to avoid rocking the boat by pursuing any 
possible means of so-called 'formal independence,' it should also 
have introduced concrete measures to constrain Beijing's incessant 
deployment of more and more missiles targeted at Taiwan and its 
diplomatic saber from rattling against Taipei's international space. 
 We believe the Bush administration did make efforts to persuade 
Beijing leaders to engage in direct dialogue with Taiwan's 
duly-elected president and government and to refrain from misguided 
and belligerent moves to threaten Taiwan's democracy.  However, it 
is also apparent that Washington has overly tilting toward Beijing, 
despite the lack of a 'goodwill' response to the above initiatives, 
for the sake of fostering China as a 'responsible stakeholder' in 
the international community. ..." 
 
YOUNG