VZCZCXYZ0008
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #3474/01 2840841
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 110841Z OCT 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2518
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5748
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6963

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003474 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPRK NUCLEAR TEST 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage October 6-11 on the high-profile parade and siege of the 
Presidential Office launched by former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh's 
"Oust Bian" campaign on the Double Ten National Day; on North 
Korea's nuclear test Monday; and on new Japanese Prime Minister Abe 
Shinzo's visits to China and South Korea over the weekend.  The 
pro-status quo "China Times" front-paged an exclusive news story on 
October 8 with the headline "Following  Cessation of National 
Unification Council, Bian Wants to Redefine Taiwan's Territory; 
United States Exert Triple Pressure." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, most Chinese-language 
dailies editorialized on the high-profile parade Tuesday to oust 
President Chen Shui-bian while editorials of all the 
English-language papers discussed North Korea's nuclear test Monday. 
 A "China Times" opinion piece said North Korea's nuclear test 
showed that China's nightmare is becoming a reality.  An opinion 
piece in the pro-unification "United Daily News" pointed out four 
key parts to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula: the 
United States, China, the Six-Party Talks, and the UN Security 
Council.  An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language 
"Taipei Times" urged Taiwan's leaders to put aside their petty 
bickering and formulate a unified, proactive policy o deal with 
this crisis.  An editorial in the conservative, pro-unification, 
English-language "China Post" suggested that Taiwan consider 
resuming its plan to go nuclear.  An editorial in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News," on the other hand, 
said "Beijing will be under intense pressure to show in action and 
not just words whether it stands with the international community to 
prevent the emergence of a nuclear and missile-armed North Korea." 
End summary. 
 
¶3. DPRK Nuclear Test 
 
A) "North Korea's Nuclear Test, China's Nightmare" 
 
Lai I-chung, executive member of the Taiwan Think Tank, opined in 
the pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation; 400,000] (10/10): 
 
"... North Korea's nuclear test also indicated that the 'Six-Party 
Talks,' which were organized to resolve North Korea's nuclear issue, 
are a total failure.  As a matter of fact, the 'Six-Party Talks' 
have never really achieved anything, because the United States and 
China have been acting inconsistently. ...  China has contributed 
much energy to the 'Six-Party Talks' in the hope of using the talks 
to prevent any actions that may endanger China's interests in North 
Korea, thereby further directing the security agenda in Northeast 
Asia.  But Pyongyang's nuclear test, which turned the 'Six-Party 
Talks' into a failure, indicated that the nuclear diplomacy headed 
by China would end in failure and that China has lost a favorable 
strategic stage in Northeast Asia where it can play its role.  In 
the meantime, while both the United States and Japan demanded that 
the United Nations adopt stern punitive measures against North 
Korea, China faces a dilemma of choosing to take sides with the 
United States and Japan, or with North Korea.  North Korea is 
China's key strategic buffer zone and a major tool to restrain 
Japan.  But it will not meet China's current strategic interests to 
have a showdown with Japan and the United States just because of 
Pyongyang's nuclear test.  In the face of a North Korea that is 
airing the opposite view from China's in public, the strategic 
nightmare that China has been worried about seems to have become 
reality. ..." 
 
B) "Four Keys to Resolve the North Korean Crisis" 
 
Professor Philip Yang of National Taiwan University's Department of 
Political Science opined in the pro-unification "United Daily News" 
[circulation: 400,000] (10/10): 
 
"... In the face of the crisis in which North Korea has already 
performed nuclear tests, there are four major parts in the 
resolution equation:  the United States, China, the Six-Party Talks, 
and the UN Security Council.  The United States, for its part, must 
demonstrate a consistent policy, but it also needs to adopt a more 
flexible approach to deal with future talks [with Pyongyang].  China 
must further exert its influence in mediating the two sides; 
moreover, Beijing must give double guarantees to Washington and 
Pyongyang about the contents of their negotiations, since North 
Korea, which has succeeded in its nuclear tests, also poses a threat 
to China's security.  The Six-Party Talks should be the only venue 
that will bring Pyongyang back to the negotiation table, while the 
joint statement made on September 15, 2005 can still serve as a 
starting point.  The sanctions that will be imposed by the Security 
Council will end up in more talks rather than real actions, but 
still, the Security Council can gather together voices in the 
international community and provide a venue for China and the United 
States to test each other's position. ..." 
 
C) "Nuke Test Heralds New Age of Danger" 
 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (10/10): 
 
"North Korea claims it completed an underground nuclear test 
yesterday morning.  Everyone knew this day might come, but that does 
not mitigate the awful dread with which we meet the news that 
Pyongyang has joined the nuclear club. ...  For anyone living in the 
Asia-Pacific region, there are few events that could have such a 
profound impact.  A major, protracted conflict involving some of the 
world's most powerful countries and economies is now a distinct 
possibility.  The stability enjoyed in East Asia since the cessation 
of hostilities in the Korean War has been turned into uncertainty. 
The security relationship between Japan, China, South Korea, North 
Korea, Russia and the US will now begin to change drastically. 
 
"This is a situation that poses serious challenges for Taiwan.  Even 
if yesterday's test does not lead to conflict, its repercussions 
will be felt for years. ...  Taiwan's leaders must set aside their 
petty bickering and formulate a unified, proactive policy to deal 
with this crisis.  Because internationally, Taiwan's domestic 
problems take a back seat to the threat of nuclear war." 
 
D) "Kim Jong-il's Nuclear Rabbit" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/11): 
 
"KimJong-il, North Korea's dictator, did it.  He just pulled a 
nuclear rabbit out of his hat like a black magician who did the 
trick without saying abracadabra.  Of course, Kim surprised almost 
everybody, just as his father did in May 1950 by unleashing his 
Communist army in an all-out attempt to take over South Korea. ... 
But North Korea's successful nuclear test explosion certainly will 
trigger an arms race, and that is the real concern of the United 
States and the rest of the West.  India and Pakistan already have 
their atomic bombs.  Iran will be encouraged to develop its nuclear 
weapons, while South Korea and Japan, the two likeliest targets of a 
North Korean nuclear attack, are being forced to build theirs to 
achieve a balance of terror.  In other words, the Nuclear 
Non-proliferation Treaty is going to be just a piece of paper. 
 
"As the situation now stands, it is time for Taiwan to consider 
resuming its plan to go nuclear.  President Chiang Ching-kuo halted 
it when it came to light.  Taiwan is a signatory of the treaty, and 
the plan was scrapped under persistent American pressure.  Just like 
South Korea, Taiwan faces a potential enemy, who, however, is 
already a nuclear power.  China has been a member of the nuclear 
club since 1965.  It deploys 800 cruise missiles targeting Taiwan. 
We are not certain if these missiles can carry nuclear warheads, but 
we do believe Taiwan has to have a nuclear deterrence in 
self-defense.  We have to have it to make China hesitate to invade 
Taiwan for whatever trumped-up reason." 
 
E) "Taiwan Cannot Ignore Nuclear Test by North Korea" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (10/10): 
 
"Yesterday's announcement by the secretive North Korean regime under 
Kim Jong Il that it had successfully conducted an underground test 
of a small nuclear weapon must be seen as a sharp wake-up call to 
capitals around the world, including Washington, Tokyo and Beijing, 
and it may have a grave impact on the prospects for peace and 
security in Northeast Asia. ...  In any event, it is unlikely that 
Washington, Tokyo or Seoul, much less Beijing, will attempt to push 
North Korea into a corner.  A more likely alternative would be the 
restoration of the multilateral six-power talks on the North Korean 
issue. 
 
Despite the increased threat to the people of Japan and South Korea 
posed by Pyongyang's latest display of brinkmanship, the government 
which has suffered the greatest degree of embarrassment is the 
Chinese Communist Party-ruled People's Republic of China, which has 
long been North Korea's closest ally and is its main provider of 
economic and energy assistance.  With the test firings of missiles 
and the testing of a nuclear device, Pyongyang has demonstrated that 
Beijing, whose leaders are on record as supporting a non-nuclear 
Korean peninsula, have only limited influence in controlling the Kim 
regime. ...  Beijing will be under intense pressure to show in 
action and not just words whether it stands with the international 
community to prevent the emergence of a nuclear and missile-armed 
North Korea. ..." 
 
YOUNG