VZCZCXRO1227
RR RUEHNZ RUEHPT
DE RUEHWL #0756/01 2700059
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270059Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3309
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0934
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4548
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 0463
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH 0009
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: LABOUR LOSES SUPPORT AMID POISONOUS BODY POLITIC 
 
REF: Wellington 735 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) PM Helen Clark's withering attack on National Party leader 
Dr. Don Brash has sent National surging ahead in latest NZ political 
polls. Late last week, Clark called for a halt to smears on MPs' 
personal lives and, in the next sentence, called Brash "corrosive 
and cancerous". National claimed the PM's attack was designed to 
distract attention from National's allegations the Government had 
illegally used public money on its electoral campaign.  The Nats' 
prediction that the name calling would backfire against Labour 
appears to have been borne out in the polls. Labour's problems are 
compounded by the Greens decision not to support Labour's proposal 
for legislation validating Labour's election spending. 
 
Polls signal public backlash over Labour's tactics 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In the backwash of allegations of election misspending 
(reftel) and widespread public disquiet over Labour's counterattacks 
against Don Brash, the latest poll from Colmar Brunton, which has 
historically favored the National party, finds that National has 
moved 11 points ahead of Labour (49% to 38%). Labour has dropped 5 
points and National has gained 4 points since the last poll in 
August. Government approval had dropped 6 points to 38%, with 
disapproval climbing 8% to nearly half of all voters. Although Brash 
climbed 3% and Clark's dipped 1% in the Preferred PM stakes, he 
still trails her 36% to 18%. A snap Herald Digipoll survey, 
published September 26, tracked the Colmar Brunton poll with 
National at 45.7% and Labour at 38% among decided voters. Although 
the 7.7 point gap in party vote remains the same as the last 
Herald's poll in August, there was significant change in personal 
polling where Brash climbed 3.5 points to 25.9% while Clark dropped 
a further 2 points to 50.4% (which is down 6.6% from April). 
 
¶3. (SBU) These findings will cause considerable angst for Labour, 
especially as the UMR poll, published September 11, showed similar 
results. UMR are Labour's pollsters, so the mutually reinforcing 
results are even more ominous and the Government cannot easily 
dispute them. 
Public displeased by PM's vitriolic attack on Brash 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Already uncomfortable about the heightened levels of 
personal attacks in current political discourse, Kiwis are 
apparently shocked by Clark's use of extreme rhetoric to hit back at 
National. Still smarting from having to deny rumors about her 
husband Peter Davis' sexuality this week (reftel), Clark responded 
by unleashing a ferocious verbal assault on National, and in 
particular Brash himself. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In a radio interview, Clark made it clear that accusations 
of corruption by National were intolerable in a Western democracy 
and would not be taken lying down. She said the political atmosphere 
had become difficult since National began throwing around "extreme 
and polarizing rhetoric", and reminded listeners that Brash had met 
with and accepted funds from "the extremist" Christian Exclusive 
Brethren. Claiming that senior National MPs know that Brash is not 
fit to lead his party or the country, Clark announced that "Labour 
regards Dr Brash as a corrosive and cancerous person within the New 
Zealand political system." Clark disputed that this was a personal 
attack on Brash, instead claiming it was an attack on National's 
"brand." However she pointedly noted that the brand cannot be 
separated from Brash the man. Brash's response was to urge Clark to 
"get out of the gutter." He claimed that her comments would backfire 
on Labour. 
 
Additional problems for Labour 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Applying more pressure on Labour, its political ally, the 
Green Party, has announced that it would not support any laws 
validating election spending deemed to be unlawful. Labour has toyed 
with the idea of introducing contentious retroactive legislation to 
validate its alleged overspending during the last election campaign. 
The Greens refusal to support any such legislation means that Labour 
 
WELLINGTON 00000756  002 OF 002 
 
 
will have to rely on the support of both NZ First and United Future 
to secure safe passage through the House.  NZ First leader (and 
Foreign Minister) Winston Peters is on official travel and his views 
on the campaign funding legislation are unknown.  But Peters -- a 
champion mudslinger in Parliament -- has called on both Labour and 
National to stop the damaging rhetoric. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: Clark's strongly-worded comments send an 
unambiguous message to National, and indeed to voters, that while 
MPs private lives are off-limits, political personas are still very 
much fair game. The PM's comments came at a time when both the media 
and public have urged a halt to politicians' vicious personal 
attacks. Many NZers thought her comments over-the-top, even for 
current standards. The Herald Digipoll revealed that 73.6% of those 
polled found the "corrosive and cancerous" comment was "not okay". 
(Among the critics is a Kiwi with cancer who called the PM's remarks 
insensitive.) The tactic of questioning Brash's political worth is 
Labour's latest attempt to shift public focus from the imminent 
release of the Auditor-General's report on illegal election 
spending. Expect Labour to use other tactics in the coming weeks, 
such as seeking to highlight National's high proportion of anonymous 
donations and its links to the Exclusive Brethren. 
 
Keegan