VZCZCXRO6816
RR RUEHNZ
DE RUEHWL #0735/01 2620453
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 190453Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3281
INFO RUEHNZ/AMCONSUL AUCKLAND 0919
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4539
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000735 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR D (FRITZ), EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR VICTOR CHA 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: POLLS SHOWS BRASH SURVIVING SCANDAL, SO FAR. 
 
REF A WELLINGTON 725  B WELLINGTON 721 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) An alleged extramarital affair has not diminished National 
Party leader Don Brash's popularity with voters, according to a 
recent poll. Kiwis seem to be registering distaste that their MPs' 
private lives are being made public. But many analysts believe that 
Brash's handling of this incident has again shown a lack of judgment 
that will almost certainly lead to a leadership challenge later in 
the year, if not the coming weeks. Meanwhile, PM Helen Clark has 
raised the public mudslinging another notch by accusing National of 
being behind rumors that her husband is gay. End Summary. 
 
 
Support remains for Brash despite allegations 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In the first poll after Brash's alleged affair was made 
public (reftels) the Herald on Sunday Digipoll, which historically 
tilts towards Labour,  reveals that support for Brash as Prime 
Minister has actually grown 1.6% (Brash still trails Clark 51.3% to 
24% in Preferred PM polling). National also continues to lead Labour 
in the party vote, at 44.2% to 39%. Amid increased speculation that 
Brash's days as leader are numbered, the poll also reveals that 
Brash at 31.6% still leads his nearest rival, John Key at 21%, as 
Preferred National Party Leader, and 24% vs. 10.8% as Preferred 
Prime Minister. 
 
Brash's popularity largely linked to public sympathy 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Most Kiwis are apparently more upset about the intrusion 
into Brash's private life than the allegation that he had an affair. 
The poll shows that the vast majority disapprove of MPs bringing the 
private lives of colleagues to public attention (73.8% disapprove 
vs. 20.9% who approve). With a fairly relaxed attitude towards sex, 
Kiwis seem largely unperturbed about Brash's alleged marital 
transgression, with a solid majority (67.2%) believing Brash should 
continue as National's leader. 
 
But hold on leadership still not secure 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The public may sympathize, but given that most kiwis still 
do not support Brash as a future PM, his caucus may not be as 
sympathetic. Brash's grip on the leadership is now considerably 
looser. According to a National Party source, caucus confidence in 
his ability to deliver an election victory is beginning to wane. The 
media continue to speculate about his possible replacements and are 
beginning to coalesce around Key. Many analysts believe that Brash's 
lapse in judgment in having an affair while publicly speaking about 
the sanctity of marriage will almost certainly clear the way for a 
leadership challenge before the 2008 election, or even much sooner. 
A National Party insider tells us that Brash should not be comforted 
by a lack of discernible maneuvering by his caucus to remove him, 
which the source attributes to senior National MPs' belief that 
voters will see an immediate challenge as opportunistic. Analyst 
Barry Gustafson imagines that "if (National) were going to move 
against Brash, the ideal time would be before Christmas, just before 
everyone goes off on holiday." 
 
Stakes rise as PM's private life now under scrutiny 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, PM Clark has stepped firmly into the fray, 
pointedly asking a journalist over the weekend how Brash could now 
speak of integrity in Parliament. But mud is sticking to her as 
well: Investigate magazine, whose editor has firm right-wing 
beliefs, has openly questioned the sexuality of Clark's husband 
Peter Davis. Photos of Davis being hugged and kissed by an openly 
gay close family friend have graced the magazine's pages as well as 
that of the popular Sunday Star Time Star newspaper. A furious Clark 
blames National for the smear campaign, which Brash has strongly 
refuted. 
 
Comment: End Game for Brash Approaching? 
 
¶6. (SBU) By Kiwi standards, the current political climate is now 
 
WELLINGTON 00000735  002 OF 002 
 
 
defined by unprecedented levels of tit-for-tat personal mudslinging 
and vitriol. While the personal intensity has increased, the 
relative standing of the players remains about what it has been. The 
only apparent change is the readiness of Brash's colleagues in the 
National Caucus to find a new leader at the first opportune moment. 
 
McCormick