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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 002924 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y NAME CORRECTED IN SUBJ LINE 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EUR/AGS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIA'S OCTOBER 1 NATIONAL ELECTIONS -- 
CHANCELLOR SCHUESSEL KEEPS WIRE-TO-WIRE LEAD 
 
REF: VIENNA 2787 
 
VIENNA 00002924  001.4 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  This weekend's elections will likely 
result in a clear victory by the conservative People's Party 
(OVP) of Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel.  It will be no 
landslide, however, as the Social Democratic Party (SPO) has 
managed to shore up its position.  Under current conditions, 
the most likely coalition to result will be an OVP-SPO Grand 
Coalition.  The process of government formation will take at 
least a month, and could drag on longer.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
The Predictions:  A Surprise Would be ... a Surprise 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Polling data and the best guesses of observers 
throughout Austria generally agree on what they expect to see 
Sunday afternoon when vote numbers emerge.  There are no 
outriders predicting radically different results.  The only 
caveats concern the effect of rather lower participation than 
usual, and the meaning of a relatively high number of 
"undecideds."  That said, predictions fall around the 
following figures (with 2002 results in parentheses): 
 
Austrian People's Party (OVP -- Conservative) -- 38-40 
percent (2002 -- 42.3) 
Social Democratic Party (SPO) -- 35-37 percent (2002 -- 36,5) 
Freedom Party (FPO) -- 10-12 percent (2002 -- 10) 
Greens -- 9-11 percent (2002 -- 9.5) 
Alliance-Future-Austria (BZO) -- 2-4 percent (2002 -- did not 
exist; FPO-splinter "Liberal Forum" polled 3 percent) 
Hans-Peter Martin -- 2-4 percent (2002 -- did not exist) 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Voter participation could be as low as 75 percent 
of registered voters, compared to the 2002 turnout of 84.2 
percent.  The reasons, analysts of all political stripes tell 
us, are clear:  overconfidence on the part of OVP voters and 
disillusionment among SPO voters.  Indeed, the OVP's abilitiy 
to approach 40 percent may depend on its success in 
convincing its faithful to spend part of a beautiful Fall 
Sunday going to the polls. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The latest polls show "undecideds" on the order of 
10 to 15 percent of respondants.  This may hide some protest 
votes (who could break for the FPO or for Hans-Peter Martin). 
 However, an even greater share probably consists of SPO 
sympathizers who have not yet decided whether they will turn 
out at all.  A significant share of that sub-set probably 
involves committed union members who resent the SPO's 
strategy of excluding union officials from the SPO candidate 
list.  (The SPO took this step in response to the scandal 
involving the "Bank fuer Arbeit und Wirtschaft, A.G." 
(BAWAG), an entity the Trade Union Federation (OGB) owned.) 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Double-digit expectations for the FPO are no 
surprise.  FPO strategy has focussed on the bottom fifth of 
Austrian society who really do face competition from illegal 
workers and foreign claimants to the government's social 
welfare resources.  The FPO does best in districts of Vienna 
in which low-income Austrians and poor immigrants mix.  The 
major parties have had significant success in coopting the 
FPO's calls for law and order and stricter enforcement of 
immigration laws.  It is important to note that the FPO's 
overt anti-Muslim slogans have found no resonance with the 
other parties.  The FPO has not/not included anti-Semitic 
elements in its campaign, although, as our contacts in the 
Jewish community point out, the party's xenophobic campaign 
(directed against recent immigrants) would probably tend to 
draw support from anti-Semites. 
 
---------------------- 
Last-Minute Strategies 
---------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The last two weeks of the campaign saw some 
relatively mild attempts at a "September surprise."  The SPO 
rolled out two allegations against OVP Chancellor Wolfgang 
Schuessel.  In one case, they tried to throw some BAWAG tar 
at him by "revealing" that he had participated in a 
conference in Bulgaria that BAWAG had sponsored.  (The OVP 
quickly countered with the argument that it was entirely 
reasonable for the Chancellor to appear at an event under the 
sponsorship of one of Austria's largest companies.)  In 
another case, the SPO charged Schuessel with having stood by 
several years ago while his wife hired an illegal caregiver 
for her father (who has since died).  In the latter version 
of "nannygate," it quickly emerged that this was common 
practice, and that even the highly popular Federal President 
and SPO leader, Heinz Fischer, had done so.  The cry of "he's 
 
VIENNA 00002924  002.4 OF 002 
 
 
almost as bad as us" would not have turned the race around, 
but it probably served to solidify the SPO base somewhat. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) For their part, the OVP has played the last two 
weeks in a relatively low-key way.  The party itself has left 
the BAWAG issue to the OVP-affiliated trade union, but even 
it has been remarkably silent on the issue.  However, if 
Schuessel is playing like a football team protecting a lead, 
he is also playing like a coach who does not want to embarass 
his opponent.  In fact, Schuessel and SPO head Alfred 
Gusenbauer apparently have a perfectly fine personal 
relationship, and Schuessel knows that the chances are that 
he and Gusenbauer will have to work together in the next 
government. 
 
------------ 
Match-Making 
------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU) On September 28, in the so-called "elephant round" 
-- the televised debate among party leaders -- Schuessel 
declared that he could form coalitions with the SPO, Greens 
or BZO.  He also explicitly ruled out a coalition with the 
FPO.  With the BZO (and Hans-Peter Martin) fading fast, and 
the Greens apparently unable to draw much support beyond 
their historic levels, the prospect of an OVP-SPO "Grand 
Coalition" is the odds-on favorite.  Under that scenario, the 
SPO would join the government as the junior coalition 
partner, probably laying claim to the Foreign Ministry and 
other key ministries.  If the SPO does as currently expected 
-- 35 percent or better -- Gusenbauer would likely become 
Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister.  If the SPO falls below 
about 34 percent, chances are that Gusenbauer would have to 
bow out. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Coalition negotiations in Austria tend to take at 
least a month, and have dragged on for as long as six months. 
 What is clear is that we will not wake up on October 2 with 
a new government in place.  Instead, the Federal President 
will ask the leader of the party with the most votes -- 
probably Schuessel -- to begin talks to form a government. 
Many of our contacts point out that if the SPO is the only 
choice, the talks will probably take longer, as the SPO tries 
to take its pound of flesh from Schuessel.  The Austrian 
public would probably start getting antsy if they hit the 
Christmas break (December 22) without a government. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) There are alternatives, of course.  The numbers 
could work for an OVP-Green ("Black-Green") coalition (if the 
Greens can agree among themselves to enter government under 
terms Schuessel can accept).  However, the Greens do not seem 
to have added to their strength recently, and this is 
therefore only a marginal possibility.  For the same reason, 
an SPO-Green ("Red-Green") coalition is even less likely.  An 
OVP-BZO coalition is practically impossible.  Even if the BZO 
entered parliament, chances are that its meager number of 
seats would not help the OVP form a coalition.  Numerically, 
there remains the possibility of an OVP-FPO coalition. 
Schuessel, as noted above, and all of his advisors have 
categorically ruled this out.  Of course, Austrians recall 
that, before the 1999 election, Schuessel had stated 
categorically that he would quit if he came in third -- and 
instead, he formed a coalition with Joerg Haider's FPO.  But 
times and people change.  In 1999, the FPO drew a majority of 
its votes from people who were tired of Grand Coalitions, 
which represented such a finely-tuned internal balance that 
they could take no initiatives.  In addition, the 1999 FPO 
still included its "economic liberal" wing.  That is one 
reason the business community favored a coalition with the 
FPO in 1999.  But the FPO's liberal wing is now long gone. 
Today, Schuessel could no longer justify a coalition with the 
FPO. 
McCaw