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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 005161 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: LDP MEMBERSHIP DECLINES AS VOTING PATTERNS CHANGE 
UNDER KOIZUMI 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Membership numbers for the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) have fallen sharply on the mass 
defections of postal workers since the passage of Prime 
Minister Junichiro Koizumi's postal privatization package in 
2005, according to recently released party statistics. 
Peaking at almost 5.5 million party members in 1991, the 
LDP's formidable political machine that reached every corner 
of Japan is now down to one million members.  To prevail in 
the upcoming elections and maintain their hold on power, the 
LDP is working to recruit unaffiliated individual voters and, 
more recently, to win back the disaffected postal workers. 
Election campaigning Japanese style has changed fundamentally 
under Koizumi, who has presided over the wind-up of the 
conservative party's national and local chapters and members. 
 End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's skillfully 
orchestrated passage of a postal privatization package in 
2005 has had a dramatic impact on membership numbers for the 
ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), according to figures 
published on August 29.  The most recent numbers, released by 
the party in connection with the LDP's September 20 
presidential election, show a decrease of 333,956 qualified 
voting members since 2003, down from 1,402,621 to 1,068,665. 
(Note:  Qualified voting members are those who have paid the 
membership fees for two consecutive years and are 
consequently entitled to vote in party elections.  End note.) 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The nearly 25 percent decline in membership since 
2003 is due almost entirely to the mass exodus of the 
Association of Special Postmasters (ASP) and an organization 
composed of postal system retirees, called "Taiju," according 
to Embassy contacts in the LDP's national headquarters 
office.  The two organizations were among the largest of the 
LDP's support groups, prior to cutting their ties with the 
party over Koizumi's postal privatization measures.  Over 95 
percent of Taiju members, nearly 110,000 qualified voting 
members of the LDP, turned in their memberships at nearly the 
same time, the press reported.  As an example of the 
tremendous clout these organizations enjoyed in the past, an 
LDP candidate with career connections to the postal system 
received over one million votes from organized postal workers 
in the 1980 Upper House Diet election, according to a recent 
press report. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Declining LDP membership rolls predate Koizumi and 
postal reform.  Party membership reached a high of 5.46 
million in 1991, but has steadily declined ever since.  While 
Japan's economic doldrums played a role, Embassy Tokyo's LDP 
contacts attribute the bulk of the nearly 75 percent decrease 
since 1991 to reforms that radically reduced incentives for 
recruiting new members (e.g., abolition of recruitment quotas 
for Diet members in 2000, elimination of "rewards" for 
recruitment to Upper House proportional candidates in 1998 
and purging of "phantom members" from the roles that same 
year). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Prior to the 2004 Upper House and 2005 Lower House 
Diet elections, much media and scholarly attention was 
focused on the fact that the LDP could no longer rely on 
organized voting of the sort made possible by groups like the 
postal workers and postal retirees, but would instead need to 
win over the roughly 50 percent of the electorate that was 
classified as unaffiliated.  Total membership hovered just 
above 1.67 million in 2001 and 2002, then held at 
approximately 1.4 million for the next two years, before 
falling to 1.22 million in 2005.  With support for Koizumi at 
50 percent and support for the LDP itself at only 35 percent 
just prior to the LDP's landslide victory in the 2005 general 
election, Koizumi was clearly successful at pulling in these 
"floating" votes.  The postal workers fought hard to reelect 
Lower House candidates who had resigned from the LDP over 
postal reform, but Koizumi fielded his own candidates against 
 
TOKYO 00005161  002 OF 002 
 
 
the "postal rebels" and led the LDP to a landslide victory on 
the strength of his reform message.  Embassy contacts confirm 
that party efforts have succeeded in enrolling more of these 
"floaters," with individual memberships having risen 
slightly, even as organized memberships are dropping. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) According to LDP officials, Party Organization 
Headquarters Chairman Yoshio Yatsu initiated efforts back in 
February 2006 to reconcile with the postal workers in hopes 
of regaining their support in time for unified local and 
Upper House Diet elections in April and July of 2007, 
respectively.  Prime Minister Koizumi supports these efforts 
to repair the strained relationship, recognizing the 
important role the two organizations will play in efforts to 
implement the privatization process, slated to begin in 
October 2007.  This is a far cry from when the Prime Minister 
referred publicly to the two organizations as "forces of 
resistance" for their attempts to block his privatization 
legislation.  The postal workers, for their part, have an 
interest in staking out a meaningful role for themselves in 
the implementation process, although it is still unclear 
whether they will rejoin the LDP fold. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Comment.  Prime Minister Koizumi stated at the 
beginning of his term that he was out to either reform the 
LDP or destroy it.  His willingness to break the rules and 
alienate two of the party's largest support groups just prior 
to an election in pursuit of his legislative agenda is a 
clear illustration of how unconventional a politician he has 
been.  Despite the steep decline in party membership during 
his term, the LDP still maintains its lock on power.  To 
prevail in the coming elections and maintain that hold, 
however, the LDP will need to maintain it's support levels 
among fickle "floating voters."  The well-oiled 
organizational machine of their coalition partner, New 
Komeito, will likely supply significant support. 
SCHIEFFER