VZCZCXRO7056
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHTL #0867 2651106
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221106Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9049
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS TALLINN 000867 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - TEMPEST IN A 
TEAPOT 
 
Ref: A) Tallinn 00756  B) Tallinn 582 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The second round of voting in 
Estonia's presidential elections will take place on 
September 23rd, when members of the electoral college 
meet in Tallinn.  Although polls indicate popular 
support favors Social Democrat Toomas Hendrik Ilves, the 
contest in the electoral college between incumbent 
Arnold Ruutel and Ilves is likely to be extremely close. 
The outcome of this election will determine how much of 
a role Estonia's president will play in foreign policy 
for the next five years:  minimal if Ruutel wins; 
activist with Ilves.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Public interest in the election has been very 
strong. 43,000 people called in on September 20 to 
"vote" for president in a poll taken during a televised 
debate among party leaders.  The outcome of this poll, 
which tracks with other recent surveys, indicated 
approximately 70% of respondents favor Ilves over 
Ruutel.  Although representatives of local government 
councils (who make up more than two thirds of the 
electoral college) are more directly tied to their 
constituencies than MPs, popular support will not 
necessarily equate to victory in the electoral college. 
Adding to the uncertainty, parties do not have the 
ability to maintain the same level of discipline among 
local officials as they did with MPs in the first round, 
where Center and People's Union ordered their deputies 
not to vote rather than face the possibility that some 
might use their secret ballot to vote against the party 
line. 
 
¶3. (U) Not surprisingly, parties on both sides have 
asserted they have enough votes to elect their 
candidate.  Media predictions, however, have ranged 
widely.  Of note, a telephone survey of local electors 
conducted by Estonian Radio on September 19 concluded 
that Ilves may be three votes short of winning, Ruutel 
¶14.  However, 16 members would not reveal the way they 
intend to vote. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) There is a small chance that neither candidate 
will obtain enough votes to win; a simply majority of 
votes cast is required.  There has been speculation in 
the press that some electors will cast empty or spoiled 
ballots.  If enough electors do this and the votes that 
are cast are relatively evenly split, both Ilves and 
Ruutel could fall short.  Failure to choose a president 
this round would result in the elections moving back to 
Parliament for a third round of voting. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment:  Two things about this election are 
clear.  If President Ruutel wins re-election, he will 
continue the same relatively inactive approach he has 
taken the last five years.  Ilves, on the other hand, 
would certainly seek to play a much more activist role 
as President, particularly in foreign policy. (ref B). 
 
WOS