VZCZCXRO7462
OO RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTL #0851 2621340
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 191340Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9029
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS TALLINN 000851 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EU NATO AF IZ EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIAN MPS ON IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  On September 14, the Ambassador hosted a 
luncheon discussion of Afghanistan and Iraq with four 
members of Parliament: Jarno Laur (Social Democrats), Janno 
Reiljan (People's Union), Ela Tomson (Res Publica) and Ain 
Seppik (Center Party).  The discussion focused on the 
upcoming debate in Parliament over extension of Estonia's 
Iraq Mission mandate.  The debate reflected the clear 
trends we have seen in Parliament's position on these key 
missions - firm support for Afghanistan and division over 
Iraq.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) All four MPs reaffirmed Parliament's strong support 
for Estonia's mission in Afghanistan and highlighted the 
mission?s two-year mandate.  They emphasized the importance 
of the NATO framework for the Afghan mission and said 
Estonia's participation demonstrates its commitment to 
being a good NATO ally.  Reiljan (People's Union) expressed 
concern over the prospects for "success" in Afghanistan. 
Given the tribal culture, lack of democratic traditions, 
and history, he noted, it will be very difficult to bring 
together the Afghan peoples.  The Ambassador emphasized the 
need for more NATO troops in Afghanistan emphasized that 
establishing a secure environment is critical to success. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Discussion on Iraq was significantly less unified. 
With parliamentary elections next year, all the MPs agreed 
that extending the Iraq Mission Mandate (which expires at 
the end of 2006) will be more difficult than it has been in 
the past.  The debate in Parliament is likely to take place 
in November, Tomson said.  Discussions among MPs has not 
yet started, she added, although there is some talk "in the 
corridors" on this issue.  All of the MPs asserted that it 
will be impossible for Parliament to approve an extension 
without a new UN mandate. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Seppik (Center) voiced his support for the Iraq 
mission, while Reiljan and Laur (Social Democrat) noted 
their concern that coalition efforts in Iraq lacked a 
finite timeline.  "What is the exit strategy?" Laur asked 
several times. "The [Estonian] Government hasn't given us 
any indication what our long term plans are in Iraq." 
Seppik also noted the sensitivity of the term "occupation" 
in Estonia and said that he did not think the optics 
concerning coalition forces sit well with the average 
Estonian.  Laur added that the lack of a UN mandate at the 
start of the war continues to have a negative effect on 
public opinion in Estonia. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment.  Although three out of four of these MPs 
(all but Laur) voted for extension of the Iraq mandate last 
year, they represent parties that, for the most part, are 
opposed.  How the vote plays out in Parliament will depend 
significantly on how the issue is presented by the GOE. 
The Prime Minister has told us on several occasions that he 
is confident the mandate will be extended, but two of the 
three parties in the governing coalition are lukewarm at 
best about the Estonian commitment in Iraq. In the coming 
weeks we will liaise closely with the GOE on its strategy 
for winning the vote in Parliament. 
 
WOS