VZCZCXYZ0013
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #1037 2701016
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271016Z SEP 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5818
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6876
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7456
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2577

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001037 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA, CHAVEZ REGIONAL AND 
INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE; BRAZIL AND THE SGP; SAO PAULO 
¶1. "Oil Threatens Chvez" 
Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (9/25) editorialized: "President 
Hugo Chvez does not use the richness provided by its nation's oil 
 
reserves to prepare Venezuela's infrastructure for the day oil will 
be over, but to finance a flogging campaign against the US and to 
weaken democratic institutions. All this has the purpose of 
perpetuating himself in power.... Now the speculation wave seems to 
be ending and oil prices are ending up near USD 50 per barrel.  If 
this is confirmed, Chvez will soon be deprived of money to support 
his ideological extravagances and ambition for power. After all, 
it's only because he has so far enjoyed large resources resulting 
from the daily sale of oil by more than USD 70 per barrel that he 
has been able to send to Cuba an annual aid estimated in USD 4 
billion in the hope of becoming Fidel Castro's legitimate 
successor.... During 40 days in July and August, Chvez visited ten 
nations not only to obtain support for Venezuela's claim for a seat 
at the UN Security Council, but also to present himself as the 
leader of an opposition axis against the US.... Chvez's foreign 
policy goal is to create a front of nations that are hostile not 
only to the US, but also to capitalist democracies. He wants to 
revive the North-South antagonism.... To protect Venezuela from 
non-existent threats, he is buying weapons in large quantities - a 
fact that may cause an arms race in the region. Domestically, his 
goal is to become dictator for life.... As long as oil receipts 
permit, such assaults on democracy and regional stability will 
continue to be carried out near Brazilian borders. And the Lula 
administration, which flirts with Chvez, does not see that the 
storm being formed in the Caribbean may affect Brazil." 
¶2. "GSP - Brazil-US Partnership" 
The president of the state of Sao Paulo Industrial Federation 
(FIESP), Paulo Skaf, wrote in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo 
(9/23): "The GSP is one of the economic and commercial pillars of 
the partnership between Brazil and the US. Incidentally, it is only 
one that remains for us.  Removing Brazil from the GSP is, 
therefore, to contradict the goal established by Presidents Lula da 
Silva and George W. Bush in November 2005 of doubling the bilateral 
trade by 2010. To focus on trade expansion and commercial 
negotiations is the Brazilian industrial sector's proposal.... There 
are in the US Congress two bills to renew the GSP for two more years 
to benefit Brazil.  FIESP will make every effort to support their 
approval." 
 
McMullen