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RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002242 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS UPDATE: 13 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FINAL 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The Constitutional Court on September 6 
authorized the candidacies of Lenin Torres (Popular 
Participation Revolution Movement) and Bolivarian candidate 
Marcelo Larrea (Third Republic Alliance Movement), while 
denying two other appeals, bringing down the final number of 
presidential tickets to 13 from 17 original aspirants.  Polls 
of decided voters still show Roldos out front, Cynthia Viteri 
in second, and Correa close behind and rising, in third 
place.  Meanwhile, some disillusioned pressure groups are 
urging voters invalidate their ballots for Congress, to 
further de-legitimize this troubled democratic institution 
and spur political reform.  The GOE has officially requested 
USG support for the OAS observation mission, and OAS election 
monitoring head Rafael Bielsa visited Ecuador this week to 
meet the presidential candidates and sign an agreement with 
the government. Civil society groups ramped up their 
respective efforts to promote electoral debate on issues of 
concern, ensure free and transparent elections, and protect 
the rights of indigenous and disabled.  End Summary. 
 
Presidential List Final at 13 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The Constitutional Court on September 6 overturned 
the August 23 Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) ruling 
precluding Lenin Torres (MRPP) and Marcelo Larrea (MATR) from 
competing in the October 15 presidential elections.  The 
Court ruled that the TSE had no legal basis for eliminating 
12,000 petition signatures due to duplication between 
independent candidates, and subsequently authorized their 
campaigns.  The Court denied the appeals of independents 
Pedro Roura (MRP) and Marcelo Aguinaga (MCN), for other 
technical failures.  The list of presidential candidates for 
the October 15 elections is now final. 
 
¶3.  (U) Final list of candidates, in roughly declining order 
of popularity among decided voters: 
-- Leon Roldos (RED/ID), 
-- Cynthia Viteri (PSC), 
-- Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN), 
-- Rafael Correa (PAIS), 
-- Fernando Rosero (PRE), 
-- Gilmar Gutierrez (PSP), 
-- Luis Villacis (MPD), 
-- Marco Proano Maya (MRD), 
-- Jaime Damerval (CFP), 
-- Luis Macas (Pachakutik), 
-- Carlos Sagnay (The Eclectic (!) Movement), 
-- Lenin Torres (MRPP), 
-- Marcelo Larrea (MATR). 
 
Polls:  Correa Rising? 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) A September 2-3 poll conducted by relatively credible 
"Informe Confidencial" revealed that while Roldos still leads 
the pack, his support has fallen to 19%.  Viteri is now in 
second with 15% and Correa follows, in a virtual dead heat, 
with 14%.  Noboa rounds off the top four with 10% while 
Gilmar Gutierrez trails in fifth with just 4%. 
CEDATOS/Gallup and Market polls show slightly higher numbers 
for Roldos.  An August 30 CEDATOS/Gallup poll put Roldos at 
24%, followed by Viteri with 17%, and Correa trailing with 
12%.  Noboa and Gutierrez follow with 9% and 7%, 
respectively.  "Market's" September 2-3 poll showed 24.6% for 
Roldos, a virtual tie between Viteri and Correa (13% vs. 
12.7%), and Noboa and Gutierrez trailing with 8.5% and 3.4%, 
respectively. 
 
¶5.  (U) The number of undecided voters continues to vary 
widely but remains high.  "Informe Confidencial" reported 62% 
of their respondents had not decided on a presidential 
candidate, CEDATOS/Gallup 71%, and Market 48.8%. 
 
Nihilist "Vote" 
--------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Frustrated with the quality of Congress, some civil 
society and political pressure groups are calling on voters 
to nullify their ballots for Congress on October 15.  Leaders 
of the effort ("Honorable Congress", "Common People", TV 
personality Carlos Vera, and radical defrocked priest Eduardo 
Delgado) hope to pressure the new Congress to immediately 
approve a constituent assembly (previously blocked by 
Congress) to rewrite the constitution.  A recently released 
study on democracy conducted by Vanderbilt University, funded 
by USAID, found that the National Congress ranks at the 
bottom of a list of 22 political institutions in public 
confidence (just above political parties). 
 
Second Round Referendum 
----------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) President Palacio on September 7 reiterated his 
August 10 call for a non-binding referendum and announced 
that the Ministry of Government and the Presidential 
Secretary General of Public Administration were working on 
 
SIPDIS 
questions to be presented to voters during the expected 
presidential runoff on November 26.  Questions will 
reportedly be put to voters on education, health, spending of 
oil resources, and political reform.  The referendum proposal 
has not yet been presented to the TSE for approval. 
 
Campaign Spending 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Presidential candidates will receive government 
funded access to media advertising totaling around $130,760 
each.  Noboa, however, is being investigated by the TSE for 
exceeding overall campaign spending limits by $1.1 m. before 
the election campaign period even began (reportedly spending 
$3.8 m. thus far).  Noboa's camp maintains his pre-campaign 
publicity blitz had humanitarian rather than electoral 
motives.  An unfavorable decision could result in a fine 
quadruple the value of Noboa's overspending. 
 
OAS Observation Mission Visit Raises Profile 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Chief of the OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM) 
Rafael Bielsa visited Ecuador September 5-7 to meet with 
presidential candidates individually and to sign an agreement 
with the GOE authorizing OAS election observation activities. 
 After meeting with FM Carrion for the signing ceremony and 
with election authorities, Bielsa told the press that 
pre-electoral preparations appeared to be going well.  OAS 
election observers are expected to arrive in Ecuador the last 
week in September. 
 
GOE Requests USG Assistance for EOM 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (U) On September 1 the Embassy received a diplomatic 
note (#36277/06-SM, faxed to WHA/AND) from the Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs officially requesting USG support for the OAS 
election observation mission for the first round of voting on 
October 15.  In the note, the GOE expresses confidence that 
OAS observation "will constitute an additional guarantee that 
the electoral process takes place in a manner which is 
democratic and transparent, and in accordance with Ecuadorian 
electoral law, thereby helping to strengthen democracy in 
Ecuador." 
 
USAID Grantees Active 
--------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) Volunteers with Citizen Participation (PC), a local 
NGO receiving USAID support, were registered by the TSE as 
official national observers for both rounds of elections.  PC 
also signed an agreement with the TSE to observers for 
Ecuadorians voting in the diaspora, which they will 
coordinate with immigrant associations.  PC has scheduled 13 
events for citizens to meet their congressional candidates to 
discuss key electoral issues in September.  PC also plays a 
key role in independently monitoring campaign spending, 
posting regular reports on the internet that are widely 
publicized by the press. 
 
¶12.  (U) The Center for Electoral Promotion (CAPEL), also 
with USAID funding, is providing technical assistance and 
training to the TSE to prepare over 250,000 poll workers for 
election-day.  CAPEL is also providing assistance to the TSE 
to enhance efforts to encourage voting by persons with 
disabilities. 
 
¶13.  (U) The indigenous NGO "Q'ellkaj" Foundation initiated 
its own pre-electoral observation program on August 31. 
Their efforts will focus on ten cities and rural areas with 
significant populations.  Nine workshops to train over 200 
volunteers will begin in September.  Q'ellkaj will also 
launch an aggressive radio campaign in indigenous communities 
promoting the importance of voting.  USAID and the 
Netherlands Embassy are supporting the NGO's effort. 
 
¶14.  (U) The Federation of People with Disabilities 
(FENEDIF), with USAID support, is poised to launch on 
September 7 a project to promote political and employment 
rights of people with disabilities, and seeks to increase the 
participation of persons with disabilities in the up-coming 
elections.  FENEDIF has worked closely with the TSE in the 
design and production of information, ballots, and training 
to assist disabled citizens. 
 
¶15.  (U) Finally, another USAID-supported group, called 
"Seventeen Urgent Themes," involves a civil society alliance 
of 15 NGOs, and is promoting attention 17 priority issues 
(e.g. education, health, political participation, etc.). 
Their goal is to encourage presidential candidates to reveal 
their positions on all the issues, especially before the 
runoff vote in November.  The alliance began disseminating 
the issues to media outlets in late August, with many 
journalists already incorporating the points in interviews. 
The group will hold 22 nationwide events to disseminate and 
promote their efforts.  Five such events have been held and 
the rest will be completed in September.  The National 
Democratic Institute (NDI) will also sponsor a meeting 
between the alliance and political parties to promote the 
topics. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶16.  (SBU) With the presidential field finally set, and the 
formal 45-day campaign period well underway, we are beginning 
to see some shifts in the polls, and an emerging tight race 
for second place between Viteri and Correa.  Most voters, 
however, remain undecided, offering hope to all aspirants, 
however unlikely.  The Court's decision to authorize the 
Torres and Larrea could have political motives, to splinter 
the leftist vote and thereby favor Viteri.  Larrea's Third 
Republic Alliance Movement is a new fringe movement largely 
without presence in current polls.  Larrea's revolutionary 
program openly associates itself with Hugo Chavez' brand of 
Bolivarianism, in contrast to Correa.  Meanwhile, Palacio's 
quixotic attempt to force a referendum still seems unlikely 
to be approved. 
JEWELL