VZCZCXYZ0031
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #4155/01 2681304
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251304Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4496
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 8787
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 6936
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 1727
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 4846
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 4364
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1568
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0606
RUEHLGB/AMEMBASSY KIGALI 4515
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 5006
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3995
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6984

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004155 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AID/DCHA FOR WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, PMORRIS, SSTOKAR 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, TANDERSON, CMUTAMBA, GEILERTS 
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE, KNELSON 
AFR/SD HLIGHTFOOT, FSANDS 
ROME FOR FODAG RNEWBERG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
ADDIS ABABA FOR MJENNINGS, SPOLAND 
BUJUMBURA FOR RLUNEBURG 
DAR ES SALAAM FOR TMCANDREWS 
KAMPALA FOR WWELZ, DMUTAZINDWA 
KHARTOUM FOR JPOOLE, KLAUER 
KIGALI FOR RWASHBURN, SVENANT 
NAIROBI FOR JMYER, MTSEGAYE, MHALL 
USUN FOR TMALY 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
TAGS: KE
SUBJECT: CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER ? DECEMBER 2006 
AND ITS EXPECTED POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY IN 
THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1.   This is a joint cable prepared by FEWSNET Nairobi 
and USAID/East Africa?s Food for Peace Office. 
USAID/EA/FFP and Regional Economic Growth and 
Integration (REGI) Offices attended the 18th Climate 
Outlook Forum (COF) August 31 ? September 1, 2006 in 
Nairobi, Kenya.  It was convened by the Inter- 
Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate 
Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in 
collaboration with the National Meteorological Services 
of most of the 10 member countries, and various other 
partners.  [Note:  ICPAC received support from 
USAID/OFDA (this support is now ending) and has 
continued institutional strengthening support from 
USAID/EA REGI Office. End Note.]  The objective was to 
formulate consensus guidance for the September-December 
2006 rainfall season in the Greater Horn of Africa 
(GHA).  This forum convenes semi-annually, and 
participants review the state of the global climate 
system and its implications for seasonal climate in the 
GHA sub-region.  Major factors taken into account 
include the observed and predicted Sea Surface 
Temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean and 
over much of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean, 
which are known to have a bearing on the upcoming 
weather in the GHA.  The Climate Outlook is summarized 
in para(s) 5-7.  End Summary. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶2.  The semi-annual COF meetings are an important 
occasion for African, Africa-based and foreign climate 
experts and stakeholders to consult with each other. 
The resulting forecast represents a consensus and is 
the result of a great deal of research and analysis. 
Information this year has helped provide an effective 
early warning to stakeholders, including USAID, that 
rainfall patterns in the Horn of Africa and have 
informed relief operations. 
 
¶3.  The climate predictions are also relevant to other 
sectors: ICPAC products contribute to monitoring, 
prediction, early warning and mitigation of adverse 
impacts of extreme climatic events on agricultural 
production and food security, water resources, energy, 
and livestock and human health among other socio- 
economic sectors. The activities of the Centre also 
include capacity building for climate scientists and 
users alike. 
 
¶4. ICPAC represents an important successful investment 
by several USAID operating units, mainly DCHA/OFDA and 
USAID/EA/REGI, which serves the needs of early warning 
in the context of an effective regional context, and 
complements the role of FEWSNET. ICPAC is a partnership 
synergizer, as partnership in all these results and 
potential results is key. 
 
CLIMATE OUTLOOK AND POTENTIAL IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY 
 
 
 
¶5.  The short-rains (September ? December) season 
constitutes an important rainfall season over much of 
the equatorial sector of the GHA sub-region. This is 
the second rainfall season, after the long-rains (March 
? May) rainfall season. 
 
¶6.  Overall, the seasonal rainfall forecast for short- 
rains is generally favorable, as the forecast indicates 
an increased likelihood for normal seasonal rainfall 
performance for most parts of the GHA sub-region. This 
means favorable conditions for crop, pasture and water 
resources replenishment for both the agricultural and 
pastoral livelihoods in the region. This could ensure 
the gradual recovery process for the drought affected 
pastoralists communities. 
 
¶7.  In areas where there is the increased likelihood 
for above normal to normal rainfall in central 
highlands of Ethiopia, Lake Victoria basin and along 
the East African coast and parts of northern Kenya 
there is an increased flood risk in perennial flood 
prone areas along the Juba, Shabelle river basins in 
Somalia, Nyando river basin and parts of the Kenya 
coastal strip. Most seasonal forecasts indicate that 
the rains are expected to intensify in the months of 
November and December, and therefore the flood risk 
maybe more pronounced during these two months. This 
could affect negatively the overall good crop 
prospects. Flooding could also pose health problems, 
such as increases in water-borne diseases and malaria 
incidences. 
 
¶8.  More specifically, this forecast depicts prospects 
for a near normal crop production for much of the 
short-rains dependent areas in GHA. The short-rains 
crop production account for about 15% of the annual 
Kenya crop production and 25-35% for Somalia. Although 
these rains do not seem to account much for the 
national annual crop production for most of the GHA 
countries they are especially important to marginal 
agriculture in Kenya, as they are the most reliable and 
highly depended on. For the pastoralists, they are also 
particularly important in breaking the June ? September 
dry season. 
 
METHODLOGY 
 
¶9.  This favorable forecast is based on the development 
of a weak El-Nino episode, occasioned by the mild 
anomalous warming of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST?s) 
in eastern Pacific Ocean, coupled with the warming of 
the central Indian Ocean, which is conducive to good 
rains.  The current weak El-Nino event in development 
will require close monitoring in coming months to 
ascertain its potential impact in the sub-region. 
 
CONCLUSION 
 
¶10.  If the forecast holds, then, we are likely to see 
a decline in populations needing humanitarian 
assistance, especially among the farming communities on 
 
 
the eastern sector of the GHA. 
 
¶11.  If the forecast does not hold and below normal 
rainfall performance (worst-case scenario) does occur, 
then the pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and marginal 
agricultural populations, especially in southeastern 
Ethiopia, northern and eastern Kenya and most of 
Somalia will significantly be affected, worsening the 
current food and humanitarian crises in the region. 
 
RANNEBERGER