VZCZCXYZ0013
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #3988/01 2570723
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 140723Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4256
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 1718
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 4993
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3992
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS NAIROBI 003988 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID/DCHA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR KISAACS, GGOTTLIEB, AFERRARA, 
ACONVERT,CGOTTSHALK, KCHANNELL, LPOWERS, CABLA 
(A)AA/AFR FOR WWARREN 
DCHA/FFP FOR BHAMMINK, JDWORKEN, DNELSON, SBRADLEY 
AFR/EA FOR JESCALONA, JBORNS 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID KE
SUBJECT:  KENYA DROUGHT UPDATE - September 2006 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 738 B. 05 NAIROBI 7345 AND PREVIOUS 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1.  Kenya's long rains (March-June) food security 
interagency assessment has been completed. The overall 
assessment process and methodology was coordinated and 
backstopped by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group 
(KFSSG) comprising of representatives of GOK, NGO and UN 
agencies. 
 
¶2.  The assessment reveals modest improvements in food 
security in some marginal agricultural areas in the 
southeast and coastal districts as well as in parts of 
pastoral districts.  However, productivity of livestock 
is low in pastoral areas, after normal reproductive 
patterns were disrupted by the devastating consecutive 
years of drought.  The assessment confirms that a 
sizeable proportion of pastoralists lost substantial 
herds and are now destitute, camped close to local 
centers.  Hence, food security in most pastoral areas 
remains precarious and pastoralists' food security is 
sustained, for the most part, by significant levels of 
food aid.  Modest harvests in the marginal agricultural 
areas suggest that current improvements are temporary 
and food security will remain an issue until the next 
key harvest beginning in March 2007. 
 
 
¶3.  The Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) 
recommends that approximately 2.95 million persons in 25 
Arid and Semi-Arid Areas (ASALs) continue to receive 
food aid until their status improves following the next 
short-rains harvest.  This caseload includes 
approximately 554,000 children that are targeted under 
school feeding programs in the drought affected 
districts. According to the World Food Program, 
approximately 180,679 MT of food is required to address 
immediate relief needs of the 2.95 million persons 
through February 2007.  It is anticipated that the GOK 
will request donors and humanitarian groups to continue 
providing key humanitarian assistance to drought 
affected Kenyans following the issuance of the long- 
rains assessment report to be officially released on 
September 14, 2006.  End summary. 
 
The food security assessment framework 
 
¶4.  An interagency and multi-sectoral food security 
assessment, organized by the Kenya Food Security Group 
(KFSSG) has completed the fieldwork and data analysis 
and is expected to issue its final report on September 
14, 2006. 
 
¶5.  The assessment methodology was based on a 
livelihoods approach to understanding vulnerability, and 
used an adapted version (for rapid assessment) of the 
household food economy method for the field data 
collection.  The assessment covered 25 districts from 
August 10-31, 2006.  It included quantitative data 
collection at the household, market and community level 
and more in-depth discussions with the District Steering 
Groups (DSGs).  As appropriate, the assessment teams 
held separate meetings with lead NGOs dealing with food 
security that have representation in the District, local 
district experts, local community based organizations, 
etc. 
 
¶6.  Based on the assessment, approximately 2.95 million 
persons in Kenya will require various short to medium 
term relief assistance through the next short rains 
harvest in March 2007. The relief requirement includes 
an estimated 180,679 MT of food and over US$8 million 
worth of non-food assistance in health and nutrition, 
water and sanitation, and emergency agricultural and 
livestock interventions. 
 
Food security and agro-climatic conditions 
 
¶7.  According to FEWS/NET, Kenya experiences mild 
cyclical drought events approximately every 3-5 years 
with more severe dry periods roughly in ten-year cycles. 
Since 1998, successive poor rainy seasons have limited 
the ability of poor households in parts of the ASAL 
(Arid and Semi-Arid Lands) to recover lost assets and 
employ traditional coping mechanisms.  In addition to 
lack of rains, limited purchasing power, political 
marginalization (in the pastoralist context) and limited 
livelihood options are exacerbating the drought in 
Kenya. 
 
¶8.  The 2006 long-rains were erratic, characterized by 
an early start and early cessation in drought-affected 
areas, compounded by uneven spatial and temporal 
distribution.  Although the 2006 long rains ended in 
June in most of Kenya, the western half of the country 
as well as the southern coastal areas experienced 
unseasonable showers during late July and early August. 
The rains had little impact on crops outside western 
Kenya, as most of the crop has been harvested. However, 
the showers have benefited pasture and browse in 
northwestern pastoral districts, after an unusually 
early cessation of the long rains in May.  Little or no 
rains occurred in the eastern and northeastern pastoral 
districts save in localized areas. 
 
¶9.  The Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP) 
has reported that localized areas in the northwestern 
pastoral districts have received reprieve from the dry 
conditions, after unseasonable showers in Marsabit, 
Baringo, Moyale, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana 
districts towards the end of July and early August.  In 
most other pastoral districts, pasture, browse and water 
are steadily declining.  This situation is not expected 
to improve before the next short-rains season (October - 
December, 2006). Therefore, watering and grazing 
distances are increasing dramatically as livestock 
migrate to dry season grazing areas. Water trucking has 
re-started in localized areas such as in southern Wajir 
and northern Mandera due to the depletion of key surface 
water sources. Water quality is problematic and 
contamination by carcasses in parts of Mandera District 
and high salinity in Garissa has limited the use of some 
key water sources.  An upsurge in disease and incidence 
of conflict mainly over scarce resources has further 
complicated the dire food insecurity situation in the 
drought affected pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. 
 
 
¶10.  The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) has revised the 
total estimated national maize output for 2006 down to 
2.52 million MT from the original estimate of 2.9 
million MT.  The revision was necessitated by an 
extended dry spell in southern and coastal districts and 
the Rift Valley lowlands that lasted nearly one month 
and extended up to the harvest time.  Yet, the revised 
estimate represents a 15 percent increase over the 
average long-rains national maize output. 
 
 
Emergency Operation (EMOP) status 
 
¶11.  The Kenya Emergency Operation (EMOP) is scheduled 
to continue through February 2007.  An estimated 2.95 
million beneficiaries in 25 predominantly pastoral, agro 
pastoral and marginal agricultural districts will be 
targeted for emergency food distribution.  According to 
the World Food Program approximately 180,679 MT of foods 
is required to address immediate relief needs of 2.95 
million persons through February 2007.  Existing 
pipeline will not go beyond end of October.  Currently, 
the total shortfall is about 75,524 MT of which 87 
percent is in cereals.  Latest USG contribution of 2,500 
MT in assorted commodities is not expected until 
December. 
 
¶12.  More recent non-USG contributions include 
US$500,000 from African Development Bank, US$100,000, 
from the GOK and an unconfirmed contribution of Euro 
500,000 from Spain. 
 
 
Conclusion and recommendation 
 
¶13.  As per the long-rains assessment, the relatively 
modest 2006 long-rains in marginal agricultural areas 
have resulted in immediate relief after intense drought 
conditions that intensified during the first quarter of 
2005 through March 2006.  However, due to successive 
years of inadequate rains, livelihoods of pastoralists 
and agro-pastoralists, in particular, have deteriorated 
markedly and recovery has been ominously slow. The slow 
recovery, rising conflict and fragile nutritional status 
underline the poor prospects that the pastoral and agro- 
pastoral communities face in the short to medium term. 
The marginal crop producers also remain highly food 
insecure after a mediocre season followed up on the 
heels of a failed season. While the long-rains season is 
not the primary season in marginal agricultural areas, 
it often forms a critical bridge to the more significant 
short-rains season (October-December). 
 
¶14.  The food crisis in Kenya's Arid and Semi Arid 
pastoral and marginal agricultural areas is clearly much 
deeper than emergency. It is rather a fundamentally 
chronic poverty problem, necessitating strategies to 
address the root causes of food insecurity.  This calls 
for more dialogue and policy actions by the GOK that 
promote targeted investment in the areas in order to 
reduce levels of poverty and extreme vulnerability. 
Notwithstanding the climate variations and the ensuing 
unreliability of rains, the areas are endowed with 
diverse resources that, if managed creatively, could 
significantly improve the livelihoods of the communities 
at risk. 
 
¶15.  USAID/Kenya will continue to play an active role in 
the dialogue around understanding the factors underlying 
repeated food crisis in various parts of the country to 
find new approaches to protect poor people from short- 
term shocks and reduce their food insecurity in the 
medium term.  This discussion will contribute to joint 
GOK donor commitment to tackling chronic food insecurity 
in a more appropriate manner. 
 
¶16.  Meantime, given the likelihood of an emergency food 
pipeline break beyond October 2006, the USG should 
sustain its relief assistance to meet urgent food and 
non-food needs of millions of people expected to suffer 
from the protracted drought.  RANNEBERGER