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DE RUEHSK #0963/01 2481032
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
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FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5038
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000963 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EPET ENRG KTDB BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - SEPTEMBER 5, 
2006 
 
 
MINSK 00000963  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by 
Embassy Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
LOCAL ELECTIONS 
--------------- 
- Opposition Council Discusses Local Coalitions (para. 2) 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
------------- 
- Milinkevich Visits France, Opposes Union State (para. 3) 
- Police Seize Protestor, Nine Reporters in Bobruisk (para. 4) 
- Three Journalists to Be Awarded Dmitriy Zavadskiy Prize (para. 5) 
- Writers' Union Evicted from Headquarters (para. 6) 
- Belarusian Border Guards Stop Two Opposition Leaders (para. 7) 
 
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
----------------------- 
- South African National Assembly Speaker to visit (para. 8) 
- Mayors of 27 CIS Cities to Attend Minsk Conference (para. 9) 
- Delegation Attends Conference on Nuclear Materials (para. 10) 
- Belarus Ready to send Aid to Lebanon, Lacks Airlift (para. 11) 
 
TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
-------------------- 
- Beltransgaz Assets to Be Appraised in October (para. 12) 
- BMZ Director General Backs Belarus and Russia Merger (para. 13) 
 
DOMESTIC ECONOMICS 
------------------ 
- Belarus Budget Surplus at 1.5 Percent GDP thru July (para. 14) 
- Belarus' Foreign Debt Down 1.1 Percent (para. 15) 
- Belarus' Internal Debt Up 4.5 Percent (para. 16) 
 
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 17) 
 
--------------- 
Local Elections 
--------------- 
 
¶2. Opposition Council Discusses Local Opposition Coalitions 
 
The Political Council of the United Democratic Forces (UDF) 
coalition convened a meeting on August 30 to discuss the 
establishment of local opposition coalitions in the run-up to local 
elections currently scheduled for January 14.  Opposition 
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) leader Vinstuk Vyachorka predicted 
local coalitions would likely include NGOs and trade unions that 
are not part of the national UDF coalition but support its 
strategy.  According to Vyachorka, the Political Council did not 
discuss proposals for organizing a new congress of pro-democracy 
forces but would in September.  Earlier, BFP Deputy Chairman Viktor 
Ivashkevich suggested convening a second congress of pro-democracy 
forces that would include activists who collected more than 500 
signatures for the local elections.  Opposition United Civic Party 
leader Anatoliy Lebedko expressed support for the second Congress. 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶3.  Milinkevich Visits France, Opposes Union State 
 
On September 1, former opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr 
Milinkevich visited France to discuss a possible referendum on 
unification of Belarus and Russia with French Interior Minister 
Nicolas Sarkozy, Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy, and NATO 
Parliamentary Assembly President Pierre Lellouche.  Milinkevich 
decried any such referendum as illegitimate and observed that 
Belarusian youth will not accept the "loss of their homeland."  He 
asserted French politicians share his opposition and called upon 
other western leaders to oppose the creation of a Russian- 
Belarusian Union State. 
 
¶4.  Police Seize Opposition Protestor, Nine Reporters in Bobruisk 
 
On August 31, police detained opposition Bobruisk City Council 
member Ales Chigir and nine journalists in the central eastern city 
of Bobruisk for several hours.  Chigir had chained himself to a 
pole in the city's central square to protest his dismissal from a 
local school after working as a history teacher for 13 years. 
Chigir headed  opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr 
Milinkevich's campaign team in Belarus' eastern Mogilev region 
during the 2006 presidential elections.  According to Chigir, the 
education department fired him for political reasons. 
 
¶5.  Three Journalists to Be Awarded Dmitriy Zavadskiy Prize 
 
On August 31, a source with the Belarusian Association of 
 
MINSK 00000963  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Journalists (BAJ) told independent media that Russia's First 
Channel will award three Belarusian journalists its annual Dmitriy 
Zavadskiy Prize on September 11.  This year's recipients include 
independent newspaper "Nasha Niva" editor-in-chief Andrey Denko and 
photographer Yuliya Doroshkevich and "Komsomolskaya Pravda" staff 
writer Oleg Ulevich.  The prize was instituted six years ago to 
commemorate a Belarusian cameraman with the Russian television 
network who disappeared in Minsk under mysterious circumstances in 
2000, and recognizes courage and professionalism of journalists in 
the face of government repression. 
 
¶6.  Writers' Union Evicted from Headquarters 
 
On August 30, the Union of Belarusian Writers (UBW), which was 
founded in 1934, was evicted from its headquarters in central 
Minsk.  In March, the Minsk City Economic Court ruled that the UBW 
had occupied premises in the House of Writers illegally since 
January 2003 when its lease with the Presidential Administration 
(PA) Property Management Department expired without renewal.  The 
UBW lost government support in 2001 and subsequently refused to pay 
the PA rent on the grounds that its building, the House of Writers, 
was built with writers' royalties.  According to UBW Chairman Ales 
Pashkevich, the union will hold a meeting in October on the return 
of its headquarters.  In the meantime, the UBW needs to find a 
different legal address to remain a registered organization. 
 
¶7.  Belarusian Border Guards Stop Two Opposition Leaders 
 
On August 29, Belarusian border guards prevented two leaders of the 
Brest chapter of the opposition Belarusian Social Democratic Party 
"Gramada" (BSDP) from crossing the border into Ukraine. 
Authorities pulled Brest regional BSDP Head Igor Maslovsky and his 
predecessor, Georgiy Rutskiy, off their train to Kiev, searched 
them, and seized their notebooks without explanation.  The BSDP 
leaders were permitted to board another train to Kiev later that 
day.  On August 21, border guards detained a group of BSDP youth 
activists as they traveled to the Ukrainian city of Shatsk. 
 
----------------------- 
International Relations 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  Speaker of South African National Assembly to Visit Belarus 
 
On August 29, South African National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete 
accepted an invitation from Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergey 
Martynov to visit Belarus.  Martynov issued the invitation during 
his four-day visit to South Africa for talks on economic and 
political cooperation wth South African President Mbeki, Defense 
Ministr Lekota, and Arts and Culture Minister Jordan.  Jrdan and 
Martynov signed an interstate agreementon artistic and cultural 
cooperation. 
 
¶9.  Mayos of 27 CIS Cities to Attend Minsk Conference 
 
O August 30, Minsk City Economic Committee Chief Vldimir Tishurov 
announced the mayors of 27 citiesand vice mayors of 11 cities in 
the Commonwealthof Independent States (CIS) are expected to attend 
the tenth conference of the International Assembl of Capitals ad 
Lrge Cities scheduled for Septmber 8 and 9.  The conference 
agenda includes sihtseeing, a visit to a Minsk commercial 
exhibitin in front of the new building of the National Library, 
and tours of municipal utilities.  The Interational Assembly of 
Capitals and Large Cities, wich is headed by Moscow Mayor Yuriy 
Luzhkov, curently includes 59 cities in the CIS. 
 
¶10.  Belarsian Delegation Attends Conference on Nuclear Materials 
 
On August 29, a Belarusian delegation attended an international 
conference on nuclear materials control at Ukraine's Khmelnitski 
nuclear power station.  Other attendees in the conference included 
experts and officials representing the European Union, Lithuania, 
Russia, Sweden, Ukraine, the United States, and the International 
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).  Participants discussed proposals for 
an international framework to control nuclear materials and IAEA 
safeguards.  The U.S. Department of Energy helped organize the 
conference. 
 
¶11.  Belarus Ready to Send Aid to Lebanon, Lacks Airlift 
 
On August 31, the Belarusian Emergency Management Ministry 
expressed its readiness to send Lebanon humanitarian assistance 
including diesel power generators, water purifiers, blankets, tents 
and food.  However, the Ministry noted that Belarus had no aircraft 
for transporting the aid, but would turn to Russia for logistical 
support. 
 
-------------------- 
Trade and Investment 
-------------------- 
 
MINSK 00000963  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶12.  Beltransgaz Assets to Be Appraised in October 
 
On August 30, Belarusian First Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir 
Semashko announced an appraisal of the assets of Belarus' gas 
transport company will be conducted in October.  According to 
Semashko, the Dutch firm ABN Amro will estimate the upper and lower 
limits of market prices for Beltransgaz.  In 2003, Gazprom 
announced its intention to buy 50 percent of Beltransgaz assets 
after determining the net assets value.  However, Beltransgaz 
insisted on appraising the true market before agreeing to sell.  In 
May, Semashko had offered to sell Gazprom a controlling share of 
Beltransgaz for a share of Russian gas production amounting to 12 
billion cubic meters of gas per year. 
 
¶13.  BMZ Director General Endorses Union State 
 
On August 30, Belarusian Steel Works (BMZ) Director General Nikolai 
Andrianov urged Russia and Belarus to sign the Constitutional Act 
on the Belarusian-Russian Union State as soon as possible.  He said 
the two countries should form one state in order to provide equal 
conditions for Belarusian and Russian enterprises.  He predicted 
that equal prices for energy would result from the union, allowing 
BMZ to increase its profits by seven or eight percentage points 
above the current 20 percent. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶14.  Belarus Budget Surplus at 1.5 Percent of GDP 
 
On August 31, Belarus' Ministry of Statistics posted a state budget 
surplus of USD 297 million, or 1.5 percent of GDP, from January to 
July.  State budget revenues amounted to USD 7.2 billion during 
that period.  Profit tax revenues reached USD 449 million, while 
VAT and excise revenues totaled USD 1.3 billion and USD 651 
million, respectively.  Meanwhile, foreign trade and foreign 
economic activity revenues amounted to USD 521 million.   State 
budget expenditures reached USD 6.8 billion, 54.6 percent of the 
GOB target for 2006.  Total state expenditures and the budget 
deficit for 2006 are projected at USD 12.5 billion and USD 608 
million, respectively. 
 
¶15.  Belarus' Foreign Debt Down 1.1 Percent 
 
On August 31, the Belarusian Ministry of Finance (MinFin) announced 
that Belarus' state foreign debt decreased 1.1 percent in July to 
USD 746.3 million as of August 1.  The debt declined 4.8 percent 
from January to July.  As of August 1, long-term government debt 
accounted for 69.6 percent of foreign debt, and short-term debt 
totaled 4.3 percent.  The GOB has set its foreign debt limit for 
late 2006 at USD 2 billion.  Belarus' largest creditors are 
Germany, the World Bank, the United States, and Russia. 
 
¶16.  Belarus' Internal Debt Up 4.5 Percent 
 
On August 31, the MinFin reported Belarus' nominal internal debt 
increased 4.5 percent on the month in July to USD 1.8 billion as of 
August 1.  Nominal debt rose four percent from January to July 
while real debt increased 0.4 percent.  Internal debt decreased by 
USD 69 million in during January to July, or 0.4 percent of GDP. 
Belarus' state budget restricted the annual increase in internal 
debt to 3 percent of GDP.  Long-term debt and short-term government 
debt amounted to 56.4 and 25.3 percent of all internal debt, 
respectively. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶17.  During an interview about the recent death of the Lithuanian 
vice consul in the western city of Brest, Belarusian Member of 
Parliament Nikolai Cherginets warned other countries against 
sending intelligence agents posing as diplomats to Belarus: 
 
"Unfortunately, many countries do that.  The country that sends an 
intelligence officer as a diplomat into our country is risking its 
image. So I can only say: whatever they want to do, let them do 
that, we won't advise against that, but let me warn them: if any 
intelligence officer of any country will act in Belarus against the 
interests of our state, he will be treated accordingly." 
 
Moore