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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #2094/01 2651900
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221900Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7654
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS MANAGUA 002094 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI NU
SUBJECT: ELECTION DISPUTES GALORE -- AND HOW THEY COULD 
AFFECT NICARAGUA,S ELECTION RESULTS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  The possible threats that impugnaciones 
(election disputes) pose to a legitimate election in November 
were recently discussed and explained at a forum hosted by 
IPADE and NDI.  Candidates from all parties, with the 
exception of the FSLN, were in attendance and participated in 
debate with the hope of clarifying confusion over electoral 
law and reaching a constructive agreement.  The Supreme 
Electoral Council (CSE) failed to attend, despite their 
confirmation and prominent place on the agenda.  Possible 
election fraud scenarios have been laid out in public and the 
FSLN faces accusations that they are conspiring with the PLC 
and the CSE to defraud the 5 November vote.  CSE President 
Roberto Rivas announced on September 20 that the CSE will 
modify the regulations concerning vote result challenges 
(impugnaciones); however, the modifications in the regulation 
present other risks.  The bottom line is that we can expect 
the CSE to attempt to allow political interests to prevail 
over fairness on election day.  Party poll watchers and 
observers can help stem these efforts.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  (U) Institute for Development and Democracy (IPADE) 
recently held a day-long forum on election disputes 
(impugnaciones) where international experts, political party 
representatives, and NGO members discussed the laws and 
concerns about impugnaciones in the upcoming election.  Pat 
Merloe of the NDI presented the democratic theory and 
international precedent of election observation and dispute, 
using as examples, the cases of Granada 2004, the 2006 
Mexican election, and Florida's 2000 election to illustrate 
possible problems and tried solutions.  Political party 
representatives were given the opportunity to debate with one 
another and discuss concerns and possible solutions.  Not in 
attendance was the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), even 
though it was scheduled to fill a large part of the agenda, 
and the Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN).  Heated debate 
among candidates and forum participants ensued, but as the 
workshop ended, no viable solutions were in evidence.  For 
example, Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS) member, Dora Maria 
Tellez, accused the FSLN of being in league with both the PLC 
and the CSE to mount a massive fraud based on using 
impugnaciones to annul votes in departments where the FSLN 
and PLC are losing. 
 
ON OPENING THE BALLOT BOX FOR THE RECOUNT 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (U) Many voices, including that of international 
elections authority, Luis Alberto Cordero, emphasized the 
importance of clarifying procedure concerning when election 
party poll watchers (fiscales) are permitted or encouraged to 
open the ballot boxes and conduct a recount.  The concern is 
that strict electoral law prohibiting the opening of ballot 
boxes, except in extreme situations, can accord more power to 
the tally sheets (actas) and make the election more easily 
defrauded.  Current electoral law is self contradicting, 
stating both that a fiscal who refuses to sign an acta faces 
between 30 and 180 days in prison, and that an unsigned acta 
or impugnacion makes the votes of that voting center null and 
void.  IPADE is encouraging a clarification of this law so 
that confusion, perhaps deliberate, does not allow the 
widespread nullification of Voting Centers (JRV). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) All interlocutors agreed that the electoral law 
should be flexible enough to give due power to the ballot 
itself and not allow "the next government of this country to 
be decide by a piece of carbon paper."  According to director 
of Etica y Transparencia , Roberto Courtney, many details of 
the procedure are excluded from electoral law and leave the 
procedure open to much interpretation, making it possible for 
officials to proceed legally without lending legitimacy to 
the process.  According to Cordero, during the 2001 election 
in Granada, election officials were completely within the 
law, but the election was absolutely illegitimate, setting a 
dangerous precedent for future 
behavior. 
 
¶5.  (U) Specific concerns about impugnaciones raised at the 
forum: 
 
-- The specific procedures for raising and addressing a 
dispute are unclear. 
-- Whether an alteration on a copy of an acta is basis for 
a dispute. 
-- Whether an unaltered copy prevails over an altered 
original. 
-- Whether when opening a ballot box a 
 
recount is warranted, or what rules prevent one. 
-- Impugnaciones will be brought by fiscales who arrive at 
the poll 
at the end of the day. 
-- Impugnaciones will be used to delay the vote and incite 
panic. 
-- Impugnaciones will be used to discredit the process and 
cause 
confusion. 
-- Although five parties have the right to deploy fiscales, 
the 
acta form only includes one line for observations. 
 
¶6.  (U) At the heart of this debate are concerns over the 
control of certain political parties over the process.   As 
delegates related during question and answer periods, the 
fact that Nicaragua's electoral process is held hostage by 
the FSLN-PLC pact, makes any minor detail imposed by the CSE 
a potential attempt to manipulate the process.  As the party 
representatives debated, Julio Rojas, legal representative 
for the Alternative for Change (AC) lamented that, as a small 
and new party, it was impossible to gain access to the 
mechanisms that the traditional parties use for control and 
that he wanted reassurances that his party's fiscales would 
have access to the polls.  As he finished speaking, a PLC 
representative stood to question him and, in the style of a 
TV court, held up a series of pictures showing the AC 
campaign headquarters in Leon, painted with FSLN campaign 
slogans and stating that the FSLN is a friend of the AC. 
(Note: If not falsified, this picture will be the first proof 
that the AC is behaving as a front party for the FSLN, a 
rumor we have heard circulate.) 
 
THE IMPORTANCE OF SHOWING UP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The two most important characters in the debate 
over impugnaciones, the CSE and the FSLN, failed to attend 
the forum at all.  A presentation by the CSE and a debate 
with the political parties constituted about a quarter of the 
forum and the CSE was scheduled to arrive and simply didn't. 
This absence raised concerns over the transparency and 
accountability of the organization, which were whispered and 
mentioned in private conversations.  NDI speaker Pat Merloe 
reported to pol intern that in an earlier meeting, CSE 
president Roberto Rivas had expressed to him that he didn't 
want to send a representative to the forum "in order to avoid 
problems."  In the same meeting he made clear his belief that 
the ballot boxes should not be opened "on principle" and that 
he would advise his representatives to avoid that measure. 
Speaker Luis Cordero faulted the CSE for its lack of 
accountability to the people, putting forth statistics that 
while 70% of the people trusted the CSE in 1990, less than 
42% trust the organization today, a factor Cordero believes 
contributes to abstentionism. 
 
¶8.  (U) The FSLN, on the other hand, gave no indication as to 
whether they intended to come.  Their absence was noticeable 
during the comments of many participants, guests, and party 
representatives, who referred to the FSLN as "the party that 
shall not be named."  The FSLN's lack of participation in 
this forum, the presidential debate, and other public 
election events has drawn concern. 
 
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR USE OF IMPUGNACIONES AS A TOOL OF 
ELECTION FRAUD 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9.  (U) Various scenarios for how impugnaciones could be used 
to perform voter fraud were discussed.  During the forum, PLC 
representative, Miguel Rosado, passionately painted a picture 
of the FSLN using the delay caused by widespread 
impugnaciones to "fill a certain plaza with people and 
declare victory" preventing or complicating a recount.  This 
event would cause disorder which the FSLN could use to 
leverage power. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) In a public statement, Dora Maria Tellez of the 
MRS accused the FSLN of working with the PLC and the corrupt 
CSE to mount massive election fraud using widespread 
impugnaciones.  According to the scenario she envisions, the 
FSLN and the PLC will take advantage of the confusion over 
proper dispute procedure to annul JRV's in areas where the 
two parties are losing, or polling at a low level.  Tellez 
accused the FSLN of securing two positions on JRVs throughout 
the country by registering Sandinista loyalists into the JRV 
 
posing as AC members -- if true, such registrations would 
give the FSLN two of the three spots on a JRV.   (COMMENT: 
We have heard and reported before that AC candidate Eden 
Pastora may be Ortega's "Trojan pony," that many of his JRV 
officials are FSLN members and will side with the FSLN in the 
event of any dispute on election day.) 
 
THE THEORY AND HISTORY BEHIND THE DEBATE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶11.  (U) NDI representative Pat Merloe spoke through a 
translator as he explained cases that have established 
international precedence and laid out the normative 
requirements for bringing an election dispute to the 
attention of authorities.  He explained that a legitimate 
system of dispute resolution must ensure that all citizens 
enjoy equality before the law, equal protection before the 
law, an impartial tribunal for the redress of grievances, and 
effective remedies to disputes that honor the will of the 
people.  This lecture provided participants with a starting 
point and their reaction showed that on many observations, 
Merloe was explaining something truly new to many audience 
members.  He emphasized that impugnaciones should always 
protect and  "respect the will of the voters as expressed at 
the ballot box."  Speaker Luis Alberto Cordero agreed 
Nicaragua's strict election dispute laws make it feasible for 
the laws to be used to go against the will of the voter. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - - 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Likely in an effort to defuse some of the 
criticism, CSE President Roberto Rivas announced on September 
20 that the CSE will eliminate the stipulation that if one of 
the three members of a voting table (JRV) does not sign the 
vote tally sheet (acta), then the votes are voided -- 
replacing this with a new condition that the votes are valid 
so long as two of the three JRV members sign.  Although at 
first glance the CSE's change of heart appears encouraging, 
the modifications in the regulation present other risks. 
With the change, JRV officials representing the PLC and the 
FSLN, or the FSLN and the AC, could "collude" and sign an 
acta that is inaccurate, and the third JRV official could do 
little.  The CSE will also add language that notes (as per 
Article 173 of the Electoral Law) that if members of the JRV 
do not sign the opening, closing, and observation acts 
deliberately or in bad faith, then these officials are 
subject to the penalties described in Article 173 (referring 
to electoral infractions).  The bottom line is that we can 
expect the CSE to attempt to allow political interests to 
prevail over fairness on election day.  Party poll watchers 
and observers can help stem these efforts. 
TRIVELLI