VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #2074/01 2632326
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 202326Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7632
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002074 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: OAS EOM CHIEF SEES NO NEED FOR OCTOBER INTERIM 
REPORT, BUT WILL ISSUE ONE AT GON,S REQUEST 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 1593 
 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 1555 
     ¶C. MANAGUA 0565 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador and WHA/CEN director recently 
met with the OAS election mission to assess developments in 
the preparations for Nicaragua's November 5 elections. 
While Mission head Gustavo Fernandez sees no need for a 
second OAS interim report on Nicaragua's electoral process, 
Ambassador urged Fernandez to reconsider, noting that 
issuing a second report would allow OAS member countries to 
make observations.  Fernandez clarified that OAS will issue 
a report if President Bolanos so requests.  According to 
President Bolanos senior political adviser, President 
Bolanos intends to request a second report.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) Ambassador, WHA director John Feeley, DCM, and 
polcouns met on September 12 with the OAS EOM leader 
Gustavo Fernandez and OAS-contracted technical director 
Patricio Gajardo to discuss preparations for Nicaragua's 
November 5 elections.  Fernandez saw no need for a second 
OAS interim report on Nicaragua's electoral process, noting 
his plans to issue public statements instead.  According to 
Fernandez, the Nicaraguan government (GON) has agreed with 
this approach.  Ambassador urged Fernandez to reconsider, 
noting that issuing a second report would allow OAS member 
countries to make observations.  Fernandez clarified that 
he will respect the wishes of the GON; if Bolanos requests 
a second report, the OAS will comply. 
 
FACILITATING CLOSURE ON IRI CASE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (C) Fernandez was supportive of Ambassador's assertion 
that the Supreme Electoral Council's (CSE) attacks against 
the International Republican Institute (IRI) are unmerited 
and politically driven -- in part to raise a smoke screen 
to divert attention from the CSE's flawed regulations 
concerning vote result challenges (impugnaciones). 
Fernandez offered to weigh in with CSE President Roberto 
Rivas on the IRI case. 
 
THE DEVIL'S IN THE REGS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Continuing on the subject of impugnaciones, 
Fernandez shared that the CSE has welcomed additional OAS 
input.  Fernandez asserted that the regulations are flawed 
and confusing, specifically regarding the nullification of 
vote tabulations at voting tables (JRVs), vote result 
challenges (impugnaciones), and appeals.  However, contrary 
to the view of Etica y Transparencia (ET) leader Roberto 
Courtney and others, Fernandez did not see a problem with 
the regulation requiring signatures of the JRV officials 
and party poll watchers (fiscales) to verify the result 
of the vote tally because if an official or fiscal refuses 
to sign, he/she must justify the refusal.  Further, not 
requiring the signatures of all officials/fiscales would 
present a greater risk because certain political parties 
could 
connive and agree on inaccurate vote tallies without the 
approval of other parties. 
 
CSE TO ISSUE 200,000 TEMPORARY VOTING DOCUMENTS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Fernandez shared that the CSE will issue some 
200,000 temporary voting documents (documentos supletorios) 
and must also deliver up to (many have not been retrieved 
for years) 170,000 national ID/voter cards, or cedulas 
(many of these cedulas have been in the CSE's possession 
for years).  The OAS will accompany the CSE in the document 
delivery process.  Regarding the CSE's inflated voter roll 
(padron), Fernandez confirmed that the CSE has closed the 
list, estimating that while the roll contains as many as 
3.5 million supposedly eligible voters, probably only 2.4 
million of the names are current because included in the 
roll are thousands of Nicaraguans residing abroad and 
hundreds of deceased. 
 
OAS BEEFS UP OBSERVATION TEAM, FOLDS IN "NOTABLES" 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (C) Fernandez reported that the OAS will increase its 
number of observers from 130 to 200 to ensure better 
 
coverage of the electoral process.  He noted that despite 
its efforts, the OAS was unable to arrange for the arrival 
of the Madrid Club "group of notables" well in advance of 
the OAS observation team.  Rather, the notables will be 
incorporated into the OAS team.  (COMMENT: According to 
senior Bolanos advisers, the OAS caved to Sandinista Front 
(FSLN) pressure to refrain from bringing in the Madrid Club 
notables in September to participate in conferences with 
political parties/civil society and meet with the press. 
In light of Daniel Ortega's criticism of what he terms the 
OAS' political meddling in the electoral process, the 
notables program as a stand alone event was shelved. 
Ironically, it was Ortega who originally insisted that the 
OAS contain both a technical and political team, the latter 
to make sure "the gringos" did not step out of bounds.) 
 
CAPUTO TO FOCUS ON GOVERNABILITY 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) Fernandez confirmed that Dante Caputo will arrive 
September 22 and will focus on helping the GON and 
political parties resolve the issue of constitutional 
changes scheduled to go into effect 20 January 2007.  He 
added that the OAS has offered to help print a flow 
chart/posters of the voting process for use at the JRVs 
tables and to inform officials, party poll watchers, 
observers, and the public.  OAS will check with IFES to 
ensure they are not duplicating IFES' efforts (IFES is 
issuing the "step-by step" (paso por paso) manual.) 
 
ORTEGA COULD WIN IF THE LIBERALS REMAIN DIVIDED 
- - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8.  (C) To Fernandez, Ortega could win the November 5 
election if the Liberals remain disunited.  He remarked 
that Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) candidate Edmundo 
Jarquin's campaign is beating all expectations; while many 
people predicted that the MRS would lose steam following 
Herty Lewites' death, Jarquin has maintained, even 
increased, support for the MRS.  Fernandez related that in 
his recent meeting with Jarquin, "Mundo" Jarquin told him 
that about 11 of his 18/20 points in the polls could 
potentially migrate to Montealegre on Election Day if these 
largely independent voters determine that Montealegre is 
the candidate who can beat Ortega.  Fernandez, who appears 
well disposed towards Jarquin, noted that the MRS has the 
potential to eventually replace the FSLN. 
 
HOW MUCH FRAUD IS POSSIBLE, LIKELY? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9.  (C) Fernandez differed with the common assumption that 
Ortega can or will steal up to 5% of the vote.  However, he 
concurred with Ambassador that the FSLN and PLC could use 
their control of the CSE to influence the elections of 
Assembly candidates via "minor" irregularities.  Fernandez 
assured Ambassador that the OAS is taking precautions, 
including raising its number of observers to offset any 
efforts to commit fraud.  The OAS will also work closely 
with other leading observation groups before releasing 
conclusive statements. 
 
GON WILLING TO RECONSIDER POSITION ON OAS INTERIM REPORT 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶10.  (C) Later the same day, President Bolanos' chief of 
staff Leonardo Somarriba confirmed to WHA/CEN director John 
Feeley that the GON does not require a second interim 
report.  Feeley suggested that the option of a second 
report could help pressure the CSE to stay on track.  He 
added 
that a report would allow OAS member countries to keep 
Nicaragua's 
electoral process on the Hemisphere's radar scope and 
re-enforce 
the importance of international observers, especially in 
light of 
Ortega's continuing attacks on the OAS EOM.  A second report 
would 
also allow OAS members to signal concern with any 
pre-electoral 
irregularities, should they occur.  Somarriba explained that 
he 
had agreed with Fernandez' recommendation on the condition 
that 
Fernandez will speak out regarding any anomalies that arise 
from 
 
now until the November election.  In light of Feeley's 
observations, 
however, Somarriba said the GON is willing to reconsider its 
position.  (NOTE: On September 20, President Bolanos' senior 
political adviser informed polcouns that in light of concerns 
arising from the CSE's impugnaciones regulations, President 
Bolanos now plans on requesting a second interim OAS report.) 
TRIVELLI