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INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000845 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S KAMANA MATHUR 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR MI
SUBJECT: THE UNITED DEMOCRATIC FRONT: DOWN BUT NOT OUT 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Malawi's formerly powerful ruling party, the United 
Democratic Front (UDF), has declined significantly in both resources 
and influence since President Mutharika's resignation from the party 
in February 2005 and his subsequent formation of a new ruling party. 
 Following the split, the UDF pushed unsuccessfully for Mutharika's 
impeachment, and is now focused on the next elections in 2009.  The 
future of the party is tied to the political success or failure of 
Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2. (U) The UDF is the third largest party in Parliament, and the 
party of former president Bakili Muluzi, who remains its National 
Chairman.  The party was formally registered in July 1993 after the 
referendum introducing political pluralism. The UDF was in power 
from 1994 to 2005; from 1994 to 2004 under President Muluzi and from 
May 2004 to February 2005 under President Mutharika. Its stronghold 
was Malawi's populous southern region. However, the party began to 
lose political ground when Muluzi campaigned for an end to 
presidential term limits and later for a third term in 2003.  Public 
resentment of Muluzi's attempt to hold onto power caused the loss of 
many of his hand picked candidates in the 2004 parliamentary 
elections.  In their place a record number of independent candidates 
with UDF ties but without the Muluzi blessing (or curse) were 
elected to Parliament.  Many of these independents then joined the 
pose-Muluzi UDF, but quickly followed Mutharika to the new DPP in 
¶2005.  President Mutharika won the 2004 presidential election as the 
UDF's presidential candidate with a plurality vote of 35.9 percent. 
The party itself won 49 out of 193 seats in Parliament. 
 
¶3. (U) After taking office, Mutharika came into conflict with much 
of the party, including his predecessor Muluzi.  Muluzi held onto 
power in the party and attempted to use Mutharika to continue to 
govern behind the scenes.  Mutharika accused Muluzi and other UDF 
leaders of blocking his anti-corruption campaign, and he resigned 
from the UDF in February 2005.  He then formed the DPP, which under 
local practice automatically became the "governing" party in 
parliament, despite its initially miniscule, non-elected standing in 
the assembly. 
 
¶4. (U) Since the split, the UDF's popular base has shrunk from the 
entire southern region to only the eastern part of the southern 
region. The east is mainly comprised of Muslims from the Yao ethnic 
group, as Muluzi himself is a Muslim Yao from this area.  This 
shrinkage has largely benefited the president's DPP, and if the DPP 
begins to falter, the UDF may regain some of its southern strength. 
 
 
The UDF today 
------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The UDF reacted to Mutharika's defection by aggressively 
pursuing impeachment of the President on a number of questionable 
grounds.  The impeachment was backed by most of the opposition 
Malawi Congress Party (MCP) whose leader, John Tembo, claims to have 
actually won the 2004 presidential election.  However, the 
impeachment move failed, as most of the public turned against it, 
its procedures were challenged in court, and the opposition was 
unable to amass the necessary votes in Parliament. 
 
¶6. (U) Bakili Muluzi formally put the impeachment issue to rest in 
early July 2006.  Upon returning from six months of medical 
treatment in Britain, Muluzi declared that the UDF will not pursue 
impeachment of Mutharika. Instead he urged party members to prepare 
for the 2009 presidential and parliamentary elections. 
 
The future of the UDF 
--------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) The future of the party is tied to the success or failure of 
President Mutharika and his DPP.  Support for UDF plummeted when 
Mutharika left the party.  A number of UDF leaders followed 
Mutharika into the DPP, the UDF came to be perceived as standing for 
corruption above all else, and a number of UDF leaders were in fact 
charged with corruption.  A DPP victory in all six seats of a 
by-election in December 2005 was another heavy blow for the UDF, 
which lost three seats in its southern base.  However, the DPP has 
faced a number of recent challenges and for the first time looks as 
if it could be vulnerable in 2009.  The defection back to the UDF of 
the DPP's Regional Governor for the South means that the UDF still 
has a fighting chance in the entire region. 
 
Comment: UDF as Spoilers 
------------------------ 
 
¶8. (U) The UDF should be able to challenge the DPP in the 2009 
election, thanks to the charisma and political talents of former 
President Muluzi. Muluzi is very popular with the UDF base, and his 
 
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departures and arrivals to the country are greeted and cheered by 
thousands of supporters. Muluzi's popularity in the UDF is probably 
part of the reason why Mutharika chose to leave the party, rather 
than try to take it over. However, the UDF is unlikely to retake 
power soon, as the reputation for corruption-- a hallmark of the ten 
years of UDF rule-- still clings tightly to the party. At the 
halfway mark between elections, admittedly very early to make 
predictions, it appears that the best the party is likely to achieve 
in the coming elections would be to prevent the DPP from gaining a 
majority of the seats in parliament.  Key indicators in the coming 
months will be the expected by-elections to fill several seats 
vacated by death or jail sentences and the projected district 
assembly elections, expected in May or June 2007. 
 
Key UDF Leaders 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Bakili Muluzi, UDF National Chairman -- The former 
President became UDF National Chairman just before the 2004 
presidential and parliamentary elections. Having failed to amend the 
Malawi Constitution to remove term limits and allow for a third 
term, Muluzi took up the chairmanship of the party as a way of 
holding power behind the scenes. Due to a constitutional 
technicality (which outlaws more than two "consecutive terms"), he 
could be eligible to run for President again in 2009, if he chose to 
do so. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Brown J. Mpinganjira, MP, UDF National Executive Committee 
Member -- A founding member of the party, Mpinganjira served as a 
cabinet minister in Muluzi's administrations between 1994 and 2000. 
He then broke with Muluzi over the open/third term issue and formed 
his own party, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). In the 2004 
Malawi presidential election, Mpinganjira finished in fourth place 
in a field of five, receiving only 8.7% of the vote. Mpinganjira 
later dissolved the NDA and rejoined the United Democratic Front. 
Formerly Muluzi's right hand man, Mpinganjira is the strongest 
contender for the UDF Presidential nomination in 2009. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Friday Jumbe, MP, the UDF's Deputy Leader in Parliament -- 
He was Muluzi's last Minister of Finance (2002 to 2004). In May 2005 
he faced corruption charges including the misappropriation of $4.2 
million from the state-run agricultural company (ADMARC) where he 
had served as General Manager prior to becoming Finance Minister. He 
pled not guilty, and the case is yet to proceed. Jumbe is generally 
believed to have accumulated his wealth corruptly, and owns Superior 
Hotel in Blantyre, among other assets. It is this very wealth that 
makes him a contender for the UDF's 2009 Presidential nomination. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Sam Mpasu, spokesman of the UDF -- former cabinet minister 
(under Muluzi), former Speaker of Parliament and former Secretary 
General of the UDF. He was first elected to Parliament in 1994 but 
lost his seat in the 2004 elections.  While Mpasu is one of the 
contenders for the party's presidential nomination, the fact that he 
comes from the central region in a party dominated by southerners is 
a disadvantage for him. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Humphrey Mvula -- Mvula is a trusted Muluzi aide who is 
rumored to have masterminded the alleged vote rigging in the May 
2004 presidential election in favor of Mutharika.  In August 2004 he 
was arrested and charged after a probe in to the dealings of the 
state-run bus company where he was chief executive. According to 
investigators millions of dollars were pilfered from the bus company 
through dubious purchases of spare parts. Following the arrest, 
Mutharika fired Mvula. He was the first member of Muluzi's inner 
circle to be arrested under the government of President Mutharika. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Atupele Muluzi, MP, son of former President Bakili Muluzi. 
 Bright and articulate, Muluzi is a leader of the younger MPs in the 
UDF, though he lacks the respect of many older UDF die-hards.  After 
leaving college in the UK, where he studied law, Atupele returned to 
Malawi and won a parliamentary seat in 2004.  He is also involved in 
the running of his father's numerous businesses.  Despite this fact, 
he has come across as independent, rational, and reform-oriented in 
his dealings with mission staff. As Chair of the Parliamentary Legal 
Affairs Committee he pushed for the passage of the Anti Money 
Laundering bill during the last meeting of Parliament. 
 
EASTHAM