VZCZCXRO2535
RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #1773 2710253
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280253Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8674
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1847
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1836
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1780
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1843
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1801
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RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1542
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1554
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1349
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1811
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 1108
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0033
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 0097

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001773 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TI
SUBJECT: SIX WEEKS OUT: NO STRONG CANDIDATE WILL CHALLENGE RAHMONOV 
 
REF: Dushanbe 1766 
 
¶1.  (U)  Tajikistan's opposition political party congresses have 
taken a stance not to participate in the election.   Short of 
boycotting the election, the Islamic Renaissance Party of 
Tajikistan (IRPT), the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan 
(SDPT) and the Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT) each decided 
not to nominate a candidate to run against President Rahmonov in 
the November election.   In addition the parties will not throw 
their support behind any candidate. 
 
¶2.  (U)  The SDPT and the DPT declared the election "irrelevant" 
and spoke out against the unconstitutional nature of Rahmonov's 
presidency.  They will not consider the results of the November 
election legitimate.  The parties as a whole are refusing to 
participate in the election, but will allow members to vote for 
whomever they choose.  The DPT and SDPT, spearheaded by the 
country's preeminent constitutional lawyer Rahmatullo Zoyirov 
who helped draft the constitution, do not recognize the 2003 
constitutional referendum that permitted Rahmonov to run for two 
additional seven-year terms.  Both parties publicly stated that 
they foresee the election will not be free or fair. 
 
¶3.  (U)  The IRPT congress on similar lines voted unanimously 
not to nominate a candidate, not to publicly support any 
candidate and also not to boycott the election.  In addition, 
the party rationalized that it needs to work on its image.  It 
does not want the people to view it as an opposition party that 
is a destabilizing force, a reputation stemming from the Civil 
War that ended nearly ten years ago.  The Ambassador met with 
IPRT Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri September 26 to discuss this 
decision further. (reftel). 
 
¶4.  (U)  The IRPT's Chief of Information, Saifullozoda remarked 
the decision was "in the spirit of the late Nuri."  Saifullozoda 
suggested that just as a decision to remain silent is inherent 
in free speech, the IRPT's decision to not to field a candidate 
is consistent with the practice of democracy. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Rahmonov officially accepted the People's Democratic 
Party of Tajikistan's nomination to run for a new term September 
¶23.  He was unanimously supported by the party's delegates. 
The Communist Party of Tajikistan (CPT) also nominated Ismoil 
Talbakov, a parliament member. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  The SDPT, DPT and IRPT's decisions not to 
run a candidate do not come as a surprise.  All three know that 
no candidate they field could possibly beat Rahmonov.  In the 
SDPT and DPT's case, taking a stance and not participating is 
the loudest political message they could send and a more shrewd 
move than attempting to field a candidate.  Although the IRPT 
took a similar stance, it distanced itself slightly from the 
SDPT and DPT, not wanting to be lumped in the category of 
"opposition" political parties.  If the IRPT ran Kabiri, he and 
IRPT members would have faced harassment from the government. 
If the IRPT supported Rahmonov, it would create more tension and 
possibly a public party split. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  The OSCE has said that it will send 100 short term 
observers for the election with the caveat that if no credible 
opposition candidates emerge, it would consider rescinding the 
decision.  With the SDPT, DPT and IRPT out, no true opposition 
candidate is eligible to run.  Narziev's Socialist Party of 
Tajikistan, although considered opposition is not eligible to 
run since the party is not officially registered.  We will see 
if the OSCE considers the pocket party and pro-governmental 
party candidates to be credible.  END COMMENT. 
 
JACOBSON