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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001766 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
SCA FOR FEIGENBAUM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL OEXC TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: KABIRI'S IRPT TAKES A "TIME OUT" 
 
DUSHANBE 00001766  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  During an hour-long introductory call with 
the Ambassador September 26, Islamic Renaissance Party of 
Tajikistan (IRPT) leader Muhiddin Kabiri described his party's 
reasoning for not participating in the upcoming presidential 
elections.  Kabiri said the party would use the next three years 
to increase party strength and "build trust from domestic 
society and the international community" in preparation for the 
2009 parliamentary elections - "the government will no longer be 
able to play the Islamic fear card against us then."  Kabiri 
made a plea for increased educational exchanges and help 
improving the level of English among the party's young people - 
"otherwise they go to Russia."  End Summary. 
 
=============== 
 
Internal and External Factors Behind the "Time Out" Decision 
 
=============== 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Kabiri listed several domestic reasons for the 
party's September 25 decision not to participate in the 
presidential elections.  First, there is no proper legal basis 
for the elections.  Perhaps more importantly, Rahmonov's forces 
have created a political environment where society believes 
there is no real alternative to him.  The "monopolist" press has 
already been conducting a pro-Rahmonov campaign for two or three 
years; it is impossible to conduct a campaign in a matter of 
months.  "You could battle Rahmonov as a person, as a politician 
- but not his administrative resources."  Kabiri described a 
belief that exists both in Tajikistan and sometimes abroad that 
the active political participation of an Islamic party is 
ironically a threat to democratization - the ruling party argues 
that should the IRPT gain power, it will set Tajikistan on the 
same course as Afghanistan under the Taliban, or at least be 
"bad for the investment environment."  The IRPT has found it 
difficult to get out its message that it is not extremist, but 
rather stands for fair government that reflects the common 
"values of civilization and humanity" and not just Islamic 
values. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Kabiri also described challenges posed by the 
external environment.  When the U.S. began its fight against the 
Taliban in Afghanistan, the party took a difficult decision - to 
support the U.S. battle against terrorism even against 
"believing Muslims."  The party's support of the U.S. position 
had cost it some of its electorate.  The war in Iraq compounded 
this problem, as had Western reaction to the election of Hamas 
in Palestine.  "Our people say that when an Islamic party was 
democratically elected, it created a rift with the West, and 
caused problems not just for the government, but for the people 
of Palestine."  Kabiri's media statements that his party decided 
not to participate in the election so as "not to create a 
confrontational situation" grow in part from this perception. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  "There will not be a true contest," Kabiri predicted. 
 When we participate in elections, he added, we want to 
participate in a true competition.  To participate at this 
juncture would "play with the feelings of the electorate." 
 
============== 
 
Election Conduct and Next Steps 
 
============== 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Kabiri said his party would like to observe the 
voting process, and would like to have one of its members 
participate in the Election Commission (Note:  Parliament 
Speaker and Dushanbe Mayor Ubaidulloyev had told Ambassador 
earlier that day that only parties fielding a candidate would be 
allowed to observe the elections at polling places.  The Mayor 
is probably incorrect.  The Central Committee on Elections and 
 
DUSHANBE 00001766  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Referenda already having approved IRPT representatives at 
polling stations even prior to its decision not to field a 
candidate. The CCER's Deputy Chairman Muhibulloh Dodojonov has 
already told international organizations that the government has 
changed the decree to permit all political parties to send in 
observers regardless of whether or not they have fielded a 
candidate.)  Kabiri said he doubted the presidential election 
would be substantially better than the last parliamentary 
elections.  Following the election, which Kabiri described as a 
"Time Out" for his party, the IPRT will focus its efforts on 
"building up trust in society" and "strengthening the party" for 
participation in parliamentary elections three years hence.  He 
said the environment then would be different - "they will no 
longer be able to play the fear-of-Islamists card against us." 
The IPRT would not be substantially changing its strategies or 
tactics, "but every generation has its own view." 
 
=============== 
 
Separating the IRPT from Extremists 
 
=============== 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Kabiri pointed out the difference between what he 
called "extremist" groups such as the IMU, which use violence to 
achieve political goals, and "radical" groups such at Hizb Ut 
-Tahrir (HT), which do not.  "I'm not a supporter of HT," he 
said, "but we shouldn't be imprisoning people for having radical 
ideas if they're not acting on them with violence."  When you 
put young people in jail for 8-10 years because of political 
ideology, they're already "lost" and more disposed to become 
extremists, even terrorists. The official position of the IRPT 
is that HT's ideas are utopian and against the national interest 
of an independent and sovereign Tajikistan. 
 
============== 
 
Request for More Exchanges 
 
============== 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  As in every official meeting the Ambassador has had 
since her arrival, Kabiri asked for more educational exchange 
opportunities for Tajik students, especially those from the 
IRPT.  Many of his staff have been to the United States.  "They 
always return with a greater appreciation for the U.S. because 
of the respect they see for Muslims there."  He lamented that so 
far no IRPT members had been selected for educational exchange 
programs, "although I know the selection is fair and 
transparent, and you cannot establish some kind of IRPT quota." 
(Note: Vohidkhon Qisiddinov, Head of Administration for the IRPT 
was selected for USAID's Community Connections exchange program 
in the United States October 6-25.)   He thought perhaps the 
level of English language was not sufficient to compete 
successfully, "so many of our students go to Russia."  Kabiri 
himself, who regularly travels abroad, including several visits 
to lecture at Columbia University, has again been invited for a 
three week trip this fall to the United States.  "It's tough for 
a political leader to be away for such a long time, and it's 
also a political question - some of our members think I already 
spend too much time in the West." 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Comment:  While sharing the view of other opposition 
parties who have opted out of the election (septel) that there 
will not be a level playing field for candidates, Kabiri clearly 
believes that the political dynamic in the country will evolve 
over time to permit more electoral freedom.  Although Rahmonov's 
People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan will hold onto power, 
the tools it has used to do so thus far (fear of instability, 
assertions that an Islamic party would send Tajikistan back to 
the dark ages) will be increasingly less effective as time goes 
by and the devastating civil war recedes from the political 
 
DUSHANBE 00001766  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
consciousness. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  We are struck by the constant request for more 
educational exchanges in the United States - including from some 
less expected sources such as the leader of the Islamic party 
and Parliament Speaker, largely believed to be in Moscow's 
pocket.  It is clear to us that the emerging political 
generation, no longer overwhelmed by memories of the dark days 
of the 1990s, is looking for a touchstone - if not in the United 
States, they'll find it in Russia or Iran.  To truly promote 
democratic political development in the only country in Central 
Asia to have a legal Islamic party, we need to dramatically 
increase our exchanges, and find new ways to boost the level of 
English language throughout the country - Peace Corps could play 
a positive role in this regard.   End Comment. 
JACOBSON