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courage is contagious

Viewing cable 06BRASILIA1963, BRAZILIAN OPPOSITION SAYS ALCKMIN CAMPAIGN IS ON THE RISE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BRASILIA1963 2006-09-15 18:21 2011-07-11 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Brasilia
VZCZCXRO4876
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #1963/01 2581821
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151821Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6670
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 5449
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 8049
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 2878
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4265
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6461
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5660
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5777
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001963 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BR
REF BRASILIA 1837 
 
SUBJECT: BRAZILIAN OPPOSITION SAYS ALCKMIN CAMPAIGN IS ON THE RISE 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  Opposition presidential candidate Geraldo 
Alckmin's national campaign manager said the campaign's strategy of 
pressing hard for more votes in Bahia while letting Lula take the 
rest of the northeast still has a chance of forcing a second round 
and then defeating president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on October 
29.  Senator Sergio Guerra of Pernambuco (PSDB - Party of the 
Brazilian Social Democracy) says the Alckmin campaign has given up 
on the northeast except for Bahia, and that their own polling shows 
Alckmin is on the rise.  Alckmin and Lula are nearly tied in a 
second round face-off, according to their polling.  Polling done by 
independent Brazilian organizations does not show Alckmin gaining, 
and predict Lula would win a second round by a comfortable margin. 
This cable was prepared by Embassy Poloff and coordinated with 
AmConsul Recife.)  End summary. 
 
2. (SBU)  Geraldo Alckmin's national campaign manager said Alckmin 
still has a chance of forcing a second round in October 1 voting and 
then defeating president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on October 29. 
Senator Sergio Guerra of Pernambuco (PSDB) met with Recife Principal 
Officer and visiting Embassy Poloff at his office in Recife on 
September 11 and said the Alckmin campaign has given up on the 
northeast, except Bahia state.  Guerra said he is not an optimist 
but a realist, and while recognizing that Alckmin faces a tall order 
to win votes in a short time frame, he said the tide is turning. 
The campaign's own polling on September 8-9 showed Alckmin on the 
rise, and he and Lula are nearly tied in a second round face-off, 
with Alckmin at 44 percent and Lula at 45.  The polling also had the 
two candidates at 31 for Alckmin and 43 for Lula in the first round, 
which could be enough to force a second round, depending on the 
number of blank or spoiled ballots.  Guerra also said only 30 
percent of Lula's votes are firm, the others are soft, and many 
could be brought into the Alckmin camp. 
 
3.  (U) Note: In contrast to Guerra's assertions, polling by 
independent Brazilian organizations does not show Alckmin gaining, 
and predicts Lula would win a second round by a comfortable margin. 
The latest available polling, conducted on September 11-12 by 
Datafolha, showed Alckmin had gained one point and stood at 28 
percent, while Lula had lost one point and stood at 50 percent.  One 
point is well within the margin of error.  End note. 
 
4. (SBU) Guerra went on to say that the campaign is doing well in 
critical southern states such as Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, but 
needs to do better in Bahia, Rio de Janeiro and the center west 
region in order to win.  He said Bahia is the state where Alckmin 
faces the biggest challenge, and the PSDB will make a huge effort 
there.  On September 11, Alckmin participated in a large rally in 
Salvador with over 300 Bahia mayors, and top Bahia political figures 
such as Senator Antonio Carlos Magalhaes (PFL - Party of the Liberal 
Front) and Governor Paulo Souto (PFL).  The rally was billed as "The 
Turning Point" for Alckmin's campaign. 
 
5. (SBU) Guerra said that many voters do not believe Lula is 
corrupt, and corruption is not an issue that will win Alckmin votes. 
 Instead, Alckmin's chief challenge is to get voters to recognize 
him.  The campaign's research shows voters believe Alckmin offers 
better programs than Lula, he said.  (Comment: This begs the 
question of why the Alckmin campaign has become so negative in the 
last weeks, emphasizing corruption in the Lula government, and a 
differing perspective among other PSDB national leaders, per reftel. 
 Guerra did not explain the apparent contradiction.  End comment.) 
Guerra said their strategy is working: Lula has just started 
attacking Alckmin with negative advertising, showing he is feeling 
the heat. 
 
6. (SBU) Guerra predicted that Lula, if re-elected, will have a hard 
time governing because he does not know how to put together a 
government, and the ministries will be used as platforms for getting 
resources for the parties' next campaigns.  He also said that TV 
Globo has been actively supporting Lula because of their interests 
in the selection of a digital television system (decided earlier 
this year in favor of the Japanese system) and restructuring of the 
network's debt. 
 
7. (SBU) Guerra dismissed the widespread perception that Lula has 
distanced himself from his party, and said the proof was in Lula's 
defense of Humberto Costa at a rally in Caruaru, Pernambuco, in 
early September.  Costa, a PT (Workers Party) candidate for governor 
of Pernambuco, has been indicted by the Federal Police for 
corruption in the Bloodsuckers scandal involving rigged ambulance 
sales with kickbacks to many members of congress. 
 
 
BRASILIA 00001963  002 OF 002 
 
 
8. (SBU) Guerra also said he believes that, after the October 1 
elections, when a new threshold law will result in the elimination 
of many smaller parties, only about eight or nine parties will 
survive.  He predicted the PT will lose about ten percent of its 92 
congressional seats. 
 
9. (SBU) Comment: Guerra has no illusions about how difficult the 
task will be to put Geraldo Alckmin in the Brazilian presidency, 
even though polling numbers he cited may be evidence of some wishful 
thinking on his part.  His assertion that voters will go for Alckmin 
when they learn more about him contradicts what we have been hearing 
in Recife and Salvador from knowledgeable observers who believe 
voter loyalty to Lula -- at least in the northeast -- comes from his 
public assistance programs, personal appeal and a feeling that he 
truly represents the masses.  But voter loyalty in the northeast is 
now relevant for the Alckmin campaign only in Bahia, because it has 
written off the rest of the northeast as Lula territory. 
 
SOBEL