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DE RUEHBR #1961/01 2581817
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001961 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
NOT FOR INTERNET 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BR
SUBJECT:  PERNAMBUCO PMDB LEADER FORESEES DIFFICULT LULA SECOND 
TERM 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The re-election of President Luiz Inacio Lula da 
Silva will be a "tragedy" and his government will perform so badly 
he may not finish his term of office, according to Pernambuco's 
former Governor Jarbas Vasconcelos, (strictly protect), a veteran 
PMDB (Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement) politician from 
Pernambuco state and candidate for Senate. Jarbas did not specify 
how Lula4s second term might end prematurely, but he described a 
discouraging political landscape during a meeting with visiting 
Embassy poloff and Recife Principal Officer on September 5.  Jarbas 
said he had no doubt that Lula knew of all the corruption scandals 
that erupted during his first term, but most voters do not care 
enough about corruption to reject Lula at the ballot box, in spite 
of relentless media attacks on him.  He dismissed predictions of a 
deep reduction in the PT (Workers Party) seats in Congress, but said 
Lula will have a hard time working with the new Congress, which will 
be against him.  Most of Jarbas's own party, the PMDB, is "rotten," 
he said, but he explained that he did not feel he had a place in 
another party.  Polling shows Jarbas should easily win the senate 
seat being vacated by Jose Jorge, opposition presidential candidate 
Geraldo Alckmin's running mate.  This report was prepared by 
visiting Embassy Poloff in Recife and cleared with AmConsul Recife. 
End summary 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The re-election of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 
will be a "tragedy" and his government will be so bad that he may 
not finish his term of office, according to former two-term 
Pernambuco governor Jarbas Vasconcelos, now running for the Senate. 
Jarbas did not specify how Lula4s second term might end prematurely, 
but he described a discouraging national political landscape during 
a meeting with Recife Principal Officer and visiting Embassy Poloff 
on September 5.  Jarbas retold a bit of the overthrow of Joao 
Goulart by the Brazilian military in 1964, noting that Goulart had 
sown the seeds of his government's demise by undermining two pillars 
that were fundamental to military support: discipline and hierarchy. 
 But Jarbas said the end was provoked by two editorials in leading 
daily "O Estado de Sao Paulo." By comparison, he noted, Lula has 
survived a relentless and ongoing media attack and is heading for 
re-election.  Jarbas did not say how Lula might be forced out before 
the end of his second term, but he seemed to be suggesting it would 
be a resignation in the face of overwhelming opposition. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Jarbas said he believed that Lula will win re-election in 
the first round, but foresaw a very poor relationship with congress. 
 He predicted the PMDB, the PFL (Party of the Liberal Front) and 
PSDB (Party of Brazilian Social Democracy) would each have 17 
senators, or 51 out of 81 senate seats. He said Lula would not be 
able to get along with such a congress.  Part of the PMDB supports 
the Lula government, while another faction remains in opposition; 
Jarbas did not say how many of the PMDB senators would be 
pro-government and how many opposition.  Jarbas also said the PSOL 
(Party of Solidarity and Liberty), the far left party of Heloisa 
Helena, the presidential candidate polling third at about ten 
percent, would decline after the election. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Many voters do not care enough about the corruption 
scandals of Lula4s first term, Jarbas said, and they will vote for 
Lula.  Many of Lula4s supporters, especially those with little 
education, will vote loyally for the PT by choosing candidates on 
the ballot whose numbers start with 13, the PT's number, he 
explained.  Because of this loyalty to the PT among the poor, Jarbas 
said the PT block in Congress, currently just over 90 federal 
deputies and senators, will not be reduced by more than 10 or 15 
seats.  Jarbas also said Lula was running a good campaign, while 
Alckmin's campaign was weak.  The only one affected locally by 
corruption charges, in Jarbas' view, is Severino Cavalcanti, a 
Pernambuco politician who was forced to resign from the presidency 
of the Chamber of Deputies for taking bribes from the congressional 
cafeteria concession.  Jarbas expected an electoral defeat for him. 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) While most of the PMDB remains in Lula's camp, Jarbas does 
not moderate his anti-Lula stance.  He was not always an 
anti-Lulista: he said he recommended the PMDB cooperate with Lula in 
2003 when Lula first took office, but the PMDB refused.  Jarbas, who 
is as critical of his own party as he is of the Lula government, 
said that refusal was strong evidence that the PMDB acted out of 
self-interest regardless of what was good for Brazil.  Jarbas said 
the majority of the PMDB was "rotten," and an ideological grab-bag 
("a sack of cats").  Still, he said he has not joined another party 
because he does not have a PSDB "profile," and he does not feel 
close enough to any other party to switch.  (Jarbas was elected 
governor of Pernambuco in 1998 and re-elected in 2002 in the same 
 
BRASILIA 00001961  002 OF 002 
 
 
election that brought Lula to power.  He resigned recently to run 
for the Senate.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Jarbas added that in 2003 he became aware of extensive 
corruption at a national level and warned his state government 
administrators to be on guard against it in Pernambuco.  Lula was 
fully aware of all the corruption scandals, Jarbas was certain, 
because there was rampant cronyism. 
 
¶7.  (U) Jarbas was confident of his own election to the senate and 
said his polling shows he is at 66 percent with Pernambuco voters. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment:  Some of Jarbas' observations struck us as 
reasonable, except for the stunning and rather mysterious prediction 
that Lula might not finish his second term.  Coming from such a 
level-headed and well-respected politician, Jarbas's forecast of 
stormy political weather ahead is a warning that political gridlock 
could revisit Brazil in one form or another in a second Lula 
presidency. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Comment continued.  Given Jarbas' long-time role in 
Northeast politics and his good relations with Lula when he was 
governor, his frank and negative comments came as a surprise.  He 
takes the role of the realist in politics, but he made very clear 
that he did not condone corrupt practices in any party.  He will 
have an interesting role to play in the Senate, and he believes that 
his vice governor, Jose Mendonca Filho, will take the election in 
Pernambuco and be his surrogate there. 
 
SOBEL