VZCZCXRO5168
PP RUEHAST
DE RUEHBW #1502/01 2591214
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161214Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9367
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001502 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KPAO SR
SUBJECT: Serbia: New Poll Indicates Softening Support for Radical 
Party 
 
 
BELGRADE 00001502  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  The latest poll (conducted in early September) by a 
well-respected electoral/political NGO in Serbia, records a 
significant softening in the popularity of the Radical Party and an 
improvement for PM Kostunica's DSS party.  The results continue to 
show sky-high rates of abstention and indecision but suggest: that 
prospects for an SRS victory may be overstated and that the 
non-nationalist democratic parties will benefit by an aggressive, 
focused GOTV campaign.  End Summary 
 
Numerical Snapshot 
------------------ 
¶2. Representatives of the prestigious election-assistance NGO, 
Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID) recently briefed 
poloffs on the preliminary results of their Summer 2006 public 
opinion poll.  Based on only 2 million "sure" voters SRS and DS are 
tied at 30%, the DSS has 14% (up from 9% last quarter), while 
Socialists hold steady at 6.4%.  Poll results indicate that only 
these four parties would pass the 5% threshold for Parliamentary 
representation if elections now. Just as telling are the results on 
party preferences which indicate a definite orientation of the 
electorate around the coalition of ex DOS (the democratic parties 
that joined to beat Milosevic).  The data, based on a sample size of 
over 1600 respondents, examined intentions and preferences of the 
Serbian electorate with regard to Serbia's national political 
parties.  Chief analyst Zoran Lucic, noted that the results while 
surprising were exceptionally stable and quite consistent. 
 
¶3. Roughly, out of total Serbian electorate of 6.5 million voters 
only about 2 million are likely, decided voters.  Almost 2 million 
are undecided either whether to vote and for whom, about 700,000 
declined to disclose voting intention and just under 800,000 will 
not vote. The other 1 million never vote for different reasons. 
 
Poll results 
------------ 
¶4. Following are poll results: 
 
- Question: 
If elections were held tomorrow, would you vote and who would you 
vote for? 
 
Likely/Decided voters  2.021.000 
 
DS - Boris Tadic     615.000  30.4% 
SRS - Tomislav Nikolic    614.000  30.4% 
DSS - Vojislav Kostunica    280.000  13.8% 
SPS - Ivica Dacic     130.000   6.4% 
SPO - Vuk Draskovic        93.000   4.6% 
NS - Velja Ilic      73.000   3.6% 
G17+ - Mladjan Dinkic     63.000   3.1% 
LDP - Ceda Jovanovic     53.000   2.6% 
 
Undecided     1.980.000 
Undisclosed voting intention   709.500 
Won't vote      789.500 
 
- Question (for undecided voters only): 
Which party is closest to you? 
 
DS   388.000 30% 
DSS   277.000 21.4% 
SRS  211.000 16.3% 
G17+  119.000 9.2% 
SPS   98.000 7.6% 
NS   79.000 6.1% 
SPO   53.000 4.1% 
PSS   36.000 2.8% 
LDP   32.000 2.6% 
D/K  668.778 
Total   1.963.500 
 
- Question (for those who declined to disclose voting intention 
only): 
Which party is closest to you? 
 
DS   125.000 28.1% 
SRS  112.000 25.2% 
DSS    79.000 17.8% 
SPS   43.000 9.6% 
G17+   30.000 6.7% 
NS   26.500 5.9% 
PSS   13.500 3% 
LDP   10.000 2.2% 
SPO    6.500 1.5% 
D/K  257.652 
Total     703.588 
 
Analysis 
-------- 
 
¶5. For the first time in almost two years, the poll records a drop 
in the support of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS).  Comparison of 
 
BELGRADE 00001502  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
results from CESID's Spring 2006 poll and the latest numbers show 
that almost 300,000 voters who said they would vote for the Radical 
party in elections are now abstaining.  Over the same time period, 
support for President's Tadic Democratic Party (DS) increased 
slightly, while Prime Minister's Kostunica Democratic Party of 
Serbia (DSS) increased significantly (pollsters told us by 5%). 
Besides these three, only the SPS will pass 5 percent threshold. 
Translated into Parliamentary seats if elections were held today a 
new Parliament would look like this (total 250): 
 
DS  90 
SRS 90 
DSS  40 
SPS  18 
(Minority parties 12) 
 
¶6. Lucic opined that the results suggest resistance in the Serbian 
electorate to the hardening rhetoric of the radicals over the last 
several months, reminiscent of inflammatory and virulent rhetoric of 
the 90's.  SRS supporters seemed to be split between economic 
populist issues and territorial anti-minority ones, with less 
cross-over then might be expected.  The big winner -- exploiting the 
government's 1.5 billion euro sale of Mobtel and the government's 
position on Kosovo (firm but "statesman like") -- is the DSS . 
 
¶7. According to the poll, party preferences suggest a high voter 
turn out scenario would mean as much as 55% of the electorate 
supporting the "democratic bloc" (DS, DSS, SPO, LDP and G-17 Plus) 
with only 27% for the social-nationalistic bloc (SPS, SRS).  This 
strong democratic potential, according to chief pollster Zoran 
Lucic, would only be fully realized through a careful door-to-door 
campaign involving an aggressive and focused effort by political 
parties in a targeted GOTV campaign. 
 
¶8.  Comment: These findings are another indication that an active 
and aggressive effort by democratic parties in the field is far more 
important to a democratic victory over the Radicals then a debate 
about the electoral timetable.  While admittedly only the first 
suggestion in recent polls that the conventional wisdom about the 
strong prospects for the Radicals even in a post-Kosovo settlement 
election might be wrong, it is in keeping with anecdotal information 
indicating some nervousness and disarray in the Radical camp.  Lucic 
notes that traditionally opposition parties have only a limited 
window of opportunity to translate dissatisfaction into electoral 
victory.  The CESID poll might be an indicator that the window may 
have begun to close.  We will be working the other side of the 
equation -- aggressive field work by the other parties -- in our 
GOTV campaign in the months ahead.  End Comment. 
 
POLT