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OO RUEHAST
DE RUEHBW #1454/01 2541253
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O 111253Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9329
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001454 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO RETURNS RULING COALITION TO POWER 
 
 
BELGRADE 00001454  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: Belgrade 1421 
 
This is a Podgorica cable. It has not been cleared with 
Embassy Belgrade. 
 
¶1. (U) Summary: Unofficial preliminary election results for 
the Sunday Republic-wide parliamentary elections show the 
ruling DPS/SDP coalition holding on to power with 41 of 
parliament's 81 seats, an absolute majority. Official 
results will be released on September 12. Former Leader of 
the Opposition Predrag Bulatovic's SNP-NS-DSS coalition 
stumbled, and now has 11 seats to the Serbian List's 12. 
Serbian List head Andrija Mandic of the Serbian People's 
Party (SNS) looks to become Opposition Leader; his major 
coalition partner was the Radical Party, nominally led by 
war crimes indictee Vojislav Seselj. Two-third's of 
Montenegro localities also held elections.  The Government 
is expected to announce Ministers later this week, but Milo 
Djukanovic will remain as Prime Minister. The OSCE/ODIHR 
monitoring mission said September 11 that the vote was 
"generally in line with international standards."  End 
summary. 
 
Moderate Turn-out Confirms Government in Power 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (U) Voter turn-out was around 70 percent, below the 
turnout for past parliamentary elections and below the high 
85.8 percent turn-out for the May 21 referendum vote on 
independence. Seventy-six of 81 seats were contested 
Republic-wide, with five seats "set aside" for Albanian- 
majority districts. (In the last, October 2002, election 75 
MPs were elected, of which four were from "Albanian" 
districts.)  Twelve coalitions and parties contested the 
election. 
 
¶3. (U) The Republican Election Commission has delayed 
announcing official preliminary results until September 12. 
The independent NGO Center for Democratic Transition (CDT) 
projected allocations of the 81 mandates, based on its 
sample of 200 of 1,047 polling places; they believe their 
projection is accurate to plus or minus one percent, and 
the mandate allocations that follow are those projected by 
CDT. Official results and mandate allocations may vary 
slightly from these projections 
 
¶4. (U) PM Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists 
(DPS) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) won 41 of 
parliament's 81 seats, including one "Albanian" seat.  (In 
2002, the Government won 39 of 75 seats, including 2 
Albanian seats.) The three leading opposition groups split 
34 seats, up from 30 in 2002.  The Serbian List, led by 
Serbian People's Party (SNS) and Andrija Mandic, won 12 
seats, displacing the Socialist People's Party (SNP) and 
its leader, Predrag Bulatovic.  SNP's coalition with 
People's Party (NS) and Democratic Serbian Party (DSS) now 
has 11 seats. 
 
Newcomers and Albanians 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The Movement for Change (PzP), led by Nebojsa 
Medojevic picked up 11 seats in its first campaign.  The 
Liberals, which suffered dissension and defections in the 
last two years, allied with the new Bosniak Party to get 
two seats (down from the four won by the Liberals in 2002). 
Two "Albanian" seats returned to the Democratic League in 
Montenegro (DSCG) and to the Democratic Union of Albanians 
- one each to current MPs Mehmet Berdhi and Ferhat Dinosa. 
The other Albanian seats went to new parties "Albanian 
Alternative", based on Tuzi near Podgorica, and pro- 
business party "Forca" in Ulcinj. 
 
 
Opposition Changes Hands 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Polls (ref) had shown SNP-NS-DSS as winning 15 
seats, the Serbian List only 8.  Instead, four seats appear 
to have shifted from SNP to the Serbian List.  Long-time 
opposition leader Predrag Bulatovic, never a popular 
politician, may exit the scene after the relative defeat. 
That will enhance the position of Andrija Mandic, who as 
President of the Serbian People's Party (SNS) headed the 
Serbian List.  Mandic is a Serb nationalist, but not as 
extreme as his major coalition partner, Vojislav Seselj's 
Radicals (the only party to exist both in Serbia and in 
Montenegro).  Party leaders can choose one-half of their 
 
BELGRADE 00001454  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
MPs from anywhere on the party list; with a number of 
notorious Karadzic and Milosevic supporters on the Serbian 
List, Mandic's picks bear close attention.  The new 
opposition party, Movement for Changes (PzP), appears to 
have drawn its vote largely from pro-Union supporters who 
otherwise might have voted for SNP (or SNS), and from pro- 
independence Liberal voters, leaving the core of DPS and 
SDP voters untouched. 
 
Local Government 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Two-thirds of Montenegro's 21 municipalities also 
held elections on September 10.  In Podgorica, incumbent 
DPS mayor Miomir Mugusa won handily, outpolling both his 
opponents combined. He will also enjoy a bare but absolute 
majority in the city council: 28 DPS/SDP councilors to 27 
divided among SNP-NS-DSS, Serbian List, and PzP. 
 
Cabinet Expected Soon 
--------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) PM Djukanovic is expected to recommend his new 
cabinet to his party ally President Vujanovic soon, perhaps 
later this week.  Post expects a number of changes, but 
Djukanovic has kept his cards very close, particularly as 
to key positions such as Defense Minister and Foreign 
Minister. 
 
OSCE/ODIHR, CoE Statement 
------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) International observers said the elections were held 
largely in line with OSCE commitments and Council of Europe 
standards for democratic elections, but several reappearing 
challenges remain to be addressed.  They noted the campaign 
was for the most part calm, orderly and low-key, but the 
campaign climate deteriorated during the last days. They 
said the legal framework provides an adequate basis for the 
conduct of elections, but contrary to international 
standards and practice, the Election Law was amended after 
the elections were called. Some of the amendments included 
limitations on freedom of speech and expression (some 
limitations were struck down by the Constitutional Court 
before the vote).  Furthermore, the mandate allocation is 
not fully transparent, as it only requires parties to 
allocate half of the seats according to the order of 
candidates on the electoral list.  Some 200 observers from 
41 countries monitored the vote and the count. Election day 
was assessed positively in 98 per cent of polling stations 
visited. 
 
POLT