VZCZCXYZ0004
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #3309/01 2681022
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251022Z SEP 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2301
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5698
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6913

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003309 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S CONSTITUTIONAL 
REFORM PROPOSAL 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage September 23-25 on the ongoing and follow-on movements of 
former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh's campaign to oust President Chen 
Shui-bian; on possible solutions to the current political stand-off 
in Taiwan; and on President Chen's proposed constitutional reforms 
that touch on the island's territory.  The pro-independence "Liberty 
Times," Taiwan's largest circulation daily, ran a banner headline on 
page three September 25 that read "Bian Tosses Out Topic; Territory 
to Be Included in DPP's Draft Constitutional Reform Proposal."  The 
pro-status quo "China Times," in the meantime, ran a banner headline 
on page four September 25 that said "Ma to Take Action Today: 
Second [Presidential] Recall Motion Will Be Focus of Negotiations 
between Ruling and Opposition Parties."  The pro-unification "United 
Daily News," on the other hand, front-paged the results of its 
latest poll September 25, showing that only 15 percent of those 
polled said they support the DPP, a 40 percent loss of support over 
the past twelve months.  The same poll also found that the DPP's 
approval rating has dropped 30 percent since it came to power six 
years ago. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty Times" 
analysis urged the ruling DPP government to clarify to the United 
States and Japan the sensitive constitutional reform proposal that 
touches on Taiwan's territory.  A "China Times" analysis judged that 
after having weighed the entire political situation, President Chen 
is moving closer to hasty Taiwan independence, using Taiwan-centered 
awareness as an umbrella to protect himself.  A "United Daily News" 
analysis, on the other hand, called the unification/independence 
card a new trick that Chen has play so many times when he faced 
crises that his skill has attained perfection.  End summary. 
 
A) "Constitutional Reform on Territory Is Sensitive, Need to Clarify 
with United States and Japan" 
 
Journalist Luo Tien-pin noted in an analysis in the pro-independence 
"Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] (9/25): 
 
"The fact that President Chen Shui-bian tossed out the 
constitutional reform issue on [Taiwan's] territory yesterday has 
aroused grave concern and will certainly touch the sensitive nerve 
of Washington-Beijing-Taipei relations.  Should the ruling party 
pass the resolution to put forward the constitutional reform 
proposal on territorial changes, the government has to give complete 
details to important allies in the international community, such as 
the United States and Japan, clarifying to them that the move is 
purely in line with [the island's] actual governance status and 
international reality, and it is not meant to change the status quo. 
... 
 
"When compared with the move to cease the functions of the National 
Unification Council (NUC) and the application of the National 
Unification Guidelines (NUG), the ruling party regards the move to 
change Taiwan's territory as a very important substance of its 
constitutional reform proposal.  The Chinese side will definitely 
link this move to the cessation of the NUC and the NUG.  In 
addition, Chen has already instructed his administration to assess 
the possibility of pushing Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations 
under the name of Taiwan.  For the Chinese side, the move will only 
confirm its belief that the next step the Bian administration will 
take is to change Taiwan's national flag and title, and eventually 
take the path towards Taiwan independence. ... 
 
"A faithful description of a country's territory is something that 
[Taiwan] must make in the face of international reality.  What the 
DPP government is doing is in reality something that the Chiang 
Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo administrations should have done years 
ago.  Given the current sensitive triangular relationship between 
Washington, Beijing, and Taipei, if the constitutional reform 
proposal on territorial change is really as simple and plain as the 
ruling government claims it to be, which does not involve any 
long-range political objectives, the ruling government should 
candidly explain the issue to the international community. ..." 
 
B) "Bian Moving Closer to Hasty Independence, Making It Difficult 
for Wang to Head Cabinet" 
 
Journalist Hsiao Hsu-tsen said in an analysis in the pro-status quo 
"China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (9/25): 
 
"President Chen Shui-bian has indeed revealed his trump card for the 
remainder of his term -- he is moving toward hasty independence. 
Once this card is played, it will give a big shock to 
U.S.-China-Taiwan relations.  Su Tseng-chang, who aspires to the 
presidency [in 2008] may find it difficult to stay on in his current 
position, and the rumors that have been circulating for a long time, 
that Wang Jin-pyng may head the Cabinet, will be close to falling 
apart.  By contrast, the chances have suddenly grown higher with 
regard to the rumors that either Mark Chen will head the Cabinet or 
 
that Yu Shyi-kun will be appointed as the premier again. 
 
"If Chen touches on the bottom line of writing a new constitution, 
as clearly stated in his 'Four Nos' pledge, the two superpowers, the 
United States and China, will perhaps interfere with Taiwan's 
political situation.  A high-ranking KMT person predicted just 
recently:  'Both Washington and Beijing will keep silent even if one 
million Taiwan people surround the Presidential Office.  But both 
will get angry and show no mercy if Bian changes one word in his 
'Four Nos' pledge!"  [Should this happen], the chances will be slim 
for Wang Jin-pyng, whom the United States deeply trusts and Beijing 
regards as a target for future interaction, to head the Cabinet 
right now. ... 
 
"Chen's moving closer to hasty independence is a calculated move 
after he weighed the entire political situation.  First, [if he does 
so], Lee Teng-hui, who also is calling for the rectification of 
Taiwan's name and writing a new constitution, will hardly be able to 
impede him.  No matter what Lee's plan is, Lee cannot harm Bian as 
long as the latter stands on the high ground of Taiwan independence. 
 Second, Bian chose to use 'his striving for Taiwan independence' as 
his historical legacy.  He will not only not become a figurehead, 
but can also use Taiwan-centered awareness and turn it into an 
umbrella that protects him. ..." 
 
C) "It's [Chen's] Old Trick to Play the Unification vs. Independence 
Card Whenever [He] Faces Crisis" 
 
Journalist Huang Ya-shih said in an analysis in the pro-unification 
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (9/25): 
 
"For President Chen, the move to toss out the unification vs. 
independence issue can at least hit two targets:  First, the move 
can divert people's attention.  In the highly divided Taiwan 
society, once the ideological battle between unification and 
independence is triggered, every one will join the fight, which will 
naturally weaken the criticism against Bian.  Second, the 
unification vs. independence issue will divide the public into two 
groups and thus shift [public argument] into the controversy over 
whether 'supporting Bian is akin to supporting nativism.'  Over the 
past six years, since Chen came to power, he has been playing and 
manipulating the unification vs. independence card whenever he faces 
a crisis, and his skill has attained perfection. ... 
 
"The uproar caused by [Chen's move to] 'cease the functions of the 
National Unification Council (NUC)' in early 2006 was a one hundred 
percent issue of unification versus independence.  Chen put out the 
National Unification Guidelines (NUG), which have never been applied 
and have been long forgotten by most people, and spent a lot of 
effort talking up his ideas about 'scrapping the NUC and the NUG.' 
After a long circle, Chen, under U.S. pressure, returned to where he 
started by eventually swallowing the word 'abolition' and changing 
it to 'ceasing.'  What Chen did made zero contribution to helping 
Taiwan move toward substantive Taiwan independence, but Chen himself 
proudly showed off this result to his Green hard-cores as his 
distinguished performance. 
 
"Changing Taiwan's territory via constitutional amendments is a fake 
topic that is almost impossible to achieve.  Chen has pledged to the 
international community at least ten times that constitutional 
reforms will not involve sovereignty issues such as territorial 
change.  Chen made his pledge repeatedly because he knew that the 
international community, in particular the United States, is 
concerned and clearly opposed to it.  Under such international 
circumstances, can Taiwan possibly insist on pushing the proposal? 
..." 
 
WANG