VZCZCXYZ0027
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #3178/01 2560922
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 130922Z SEP 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2118
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5653
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6865

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, CAMPAIGN TO OUST 
PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies continued to 
give significant coverage September 13 to former DPP Chairman Shih 
Ming-tech's sit-in rally to oust President Chen Shui-bian -- in some 
cases, nearly half of their front sections were devoted to the "Oust 
Chen" campaign.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's 
biggest daily, however, is the paper that gave the least coverage to 
the "Oust Chen" campaign and instead, focused its reporting on a 
possible general strike in an attempt to force Chen to step down; a 
"Support Taiwan" rally planned by the Taiwan Society on September 16 
on Ketagalan Boulevard; and DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun's trip to the 
United States.  The "Liberty Times" ran a banner headline on page 
five that read "Concerned about Taiwan's Political Situation, United 
States Upgrades Level [of Officials] to Meet with Yu." 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an opinion piece in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" cast doubts on whether the 
United States will be able to maintain a "neutral" stance with 
regard to Taiwan's current political situation.  A "Liberty Times" 
analysis commented on the movement to oust President Chen outside 
the system, saying the move will only consume KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou, since Chen already has had nothing to lose.  End 
summary. 
 
¶3. U.S.-Taiwan Relations 
 
"Yu Lobbying in Washington; Americans Support Bian?" 
 
Loh I-cheng, a retired Taiwan diplomat, opined in the 
pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (9/13): 
 
"... It is true that among the so-called 'neo-conservatives' who 
have been employed at high levels by President George W. Bush, few 
have a very shallow understanding of Taiwan.  In particular, the DPP 
government has spent a huge amount of money over the past six years 
in making lawful donations via the Washington-based 'Formosan 
Association for Public Affairs' to assist the campaigns of American 
congressmen.  It also spent government funds sending officials like 
Chiou I-jen, Tsai Ing-wen, and Joseph Wu to fly first-class to the 
United States and, accompanied by TECRO officials, to lobby U.S. 
congressmen.  Over these years, such a 'slow poisoning' job must 
have harvested some results; it has more or less affected the U.S. 
perception of Taiwan's domestic political situation, at least on the 
middle, operational level. 
 
"This does not mean that neo-conservative leaders like Vice 
President Cheney, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, or former Deputy 
Defense Secretary Wolfowitz, who later transferred to head the World 
Bank, are also deceived.  These people put their full attention on 
core issues such as Iraq and the war on terrorism, and let those 
below them worry about cross-Strait issues, which they do not view 
as priority issues.  Inside the State Department, even though former 
Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, in charge of the grand 
China area, met with Ma Ying-jeou openly when the latter visited the 
U.S., he still deemed mainland China as his main target at work. 
After Zoellick resigned and moved to work in the private sector, 
Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill became the key person in charge 
of China policy.  Hill has a more profound knowledge of Japan and 
Korea than of China, and focuses his attention on the nuclear issue 
on the Korean Peninsula.  As for cross-Strait issues, he can only 
trust the old team, and this is the situation [in the State 
Department] now. 
 
"Both the ruling and opposition parties in Taiwan have shown 
excessive respect to the United States, and sometimes they think too 
highly of the AIT Taipei director.  Former [AIT Director] Douglas 
Paal may be arrogant because of his talents or ability; he 
nonetheless faithfully carried out the State Department's 
instructions. ...  In 2004, when the sit-in rally protesting the 
March 19 shooting of the president became unmanageable, Paal called 
on Lien Chan and James Soong to relay A-Bian's promise to organize a 
truth investigation committee, and thus resolved the stand-off.  ... 
Given the fact that Chen's promise ... meant nothing, and plus the 
DPP government's all-out boycott, the truth [of the shooting] 
remains a mystery even now.  Paal felt that he was just passing a 
message then and did not say he guaranteed that A-Bian would carry 
out his promise.  The pan-Blue camp, on the other hand, was like a 
dumb person tasting bitter herbs, and was unable to express its 
complaints, and until now no one really knows what was going on 
then. 
 
"In the DPP's eyes, however, this incident is the hard evidence 
showing that the United States secretly supports Taiwan 
independence.  Stephen Young arrived following Paal's departure, and 
this made A-Bian very happy.  Five years ago, when Young departed 
Taiwan in the capacity of the deputy director of AIT, A-Bian 
personally decorated him with the Order of Brilliant Star with 
Special Grand Cordon.  Given the fact that Young was then just a 
charge d'affaires at a representative office of a country that has 
 
no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, [to accept such an award] was 
actually a move that damaged diplomatic precedents.  No wonder Young 
told [Tainan County Magistrate] Su Huan-chih that he doubted how 
long the sit-in to oust Bian would last under such a blistering sun. 
 No one outside knows whether the AIT Taipei Office has revised such 
a heartless and not totally objective view in its cables to the 
State Department over the past few days.  This is the reason why 
some scholars doubt whether the United States is able to maintain a 
neutral stance.  ..." 
 
¶4. Campaign to Oust President Chen Shui-bian 
 
"Trying to Oust Bian outside the System Is Actually a Move That 
Consumes Ma" 
 
Journalist Tzou Jiing-wen noted in an analysis in the 
pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] (9/13): 
 
"Chen Shui-bian is a person who has descended from his political 
peak and whose term of office has started its countdown.  When the 
sit-in to oust Bian started to target him and when its sole mission 
focused on the passive goal of forcing him to step down, this 
movement itself was doomed to become an asymmetrical 'battle.' 
Under the circumstances in which A-Bian has nothing to lose, the 
backfire effect naturally triggered by the 'Oust-Bian' movement is 
actually producing an impact on some other people. 
 
"The first to bear the brunt of such a backfire effect is not the 
DPP leadership, as imagined by those people who want to oust Bian. 
This is because there are comprehensive and complicated factors 
involved with regard to whether the DPP will succed in the Taipei 
and Kaohsiung mayoral races, the legislative election, or even the 
next presidential election, the results of which cannot be 
determined by Bian's problem alone.  If a utilitarian move like 
'drawing a line [separating the DPP and Bian] can resolve such a 
problem, why [would the DPP] need its rival political party to 
remind it again and again? ... 
 
"The 2004 election already showed a balanced division between two 
major powers.  Anyone who aspires to shoulder the responsibilities 
of leading the nation will have to vie for the key of the 50 'plus 
one' in order to succeed.  The movement to oust Bian outside the 
system, which may look overwhelming on the surface, is actually a 
'minus one' move, which is consuming the hesitant Ma Ying-jeou." 
 
YOUNG