VZCZCXRO4381
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #2466/01 2631246
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201246Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7183
INFO RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5078
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002466 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS TO USTR 
TREASURY FOR DPETERS 
USDOC FOR 3317/ITA/OA/KBURRESS 
USDOC FOR 3130/USFC/OIO/ANESA/DHARRIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV EAID EAGR EIND NI
SUBJECT: ADVANCING SAHARA BOOSTS NIGERIA'S DESERTIFICATION 
 
REF:  ABUJA 1826 
 
¶1.  Summary.  Desertification and drought are the most serious 
environmental problems facing northern Nigeria and now affect 15 
states.  Nigeria loses about 865,000 acres of farmland or grazing 
land to desert conditions every year, with the Sahara Desert 
advancing south an average of 0.6 km annually.  Land degradation and 
deforestation are worsening.  The environment minister said in June 
2006 that more than 40% of Nigeria's land area was affected by 
desertification.  This causes farmers and herders to migrate, 
resulting in ethnic and socioeconomic clashes.  The growing 
desertification in northern Nigeria is beyond the GON's capability 
to address effectively, and rapid improvement should not be 
expected.  End summary. 
 
The Sahara Desert Is Moving South 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. Desertification and the associated persistent drought are the 
most serious environmental problems facing northern Nigeria and 
affect 15 states, the Government of Nigeria (GON) reported in 
January 2003.  Nigeria now loses about 350,000 hectares (865,000 
acres, or about half the size of Delaware) of farmland or grazing 
land to desert conditions every year, with the Sahara Desert 
advancing southward an average of 0.6 km annually.  The Ministry of 
Water Resources warned that more than 38% of Nigeria was 
experiencing desertification, with about 32% of Nigerians living in 
affected areas.  The UN Development Program's Drylands Development 
Center concluded in September 2001 that about 38% of Nigerians lived 
on "drylands," including in cities with water shortages.  This 
percentage is likely higher today, because of growing urbanization. 
 
¶3. In December 2000 the GON reported that between 50% and 75% of 
Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe, 
Adamawa, and Zamfara States, in Nigeria's north, were affected by 
desertification.  These states had a population of at least 29 
million and their land area accounted for about 43% of the country's 
total.  Villages and major access roads were covered by sand dunes 
in the northern parts of Katsina, Sokoto, Jigawa, Borno, and Yobe 
States, and Borno already had suffered protracted drought as far 
back as 1972-78.  Desertification threatened 10-15% of the land area 
of the more-southerly "buffer" states such as Plateau, Taraba, 
Niger, Kwara, and Kaduna, as well as the Federal Capital Territory. 
Nigeria's response to the Sudano-Sahelian drought of 1972-74 was to 
adopt medium- and large-scale irrigation projects, which exacerbated 
desertification and drought in the north. 
 
¶4. The GON concluded in 2000 there were five major human causes of 
desertification: overgrazing, overexploitation, deforestation, wood 
extraction, and poor irrigation practices.  At that time, the GON 
found that annual deforestation was roughly 350,000 hectares 
(865,000 acres), but the country's annual rate of reforestation was 
only about 30,000 hectares (74,000 acres).   Nigerians use well over 
50 million metric tons of firewood annually. 
 
¶5. The GON reported in March 2005 that land degradation nationally 
was worsening, as the area affected by wind erosion increased to 9 
million hectares (22.24 million acres) annually for the period 
2000-03, up from 6.5 million hectares (16.06 million acres) in 
1990-99.  Deforestation increased to 400,000 hectares (988,400 
acres) annually in 2003-03, up from 350,000 hectares in 1990-99. 
Minister of Environment Helen Esuene said in June 2006 that more 
than 40% of Nigeria's land area was affected by desertification, 
resulting in a "deep and injurious" impact on the economy and 
serious social problems.  The United Nations Environment Program 
(UNEP) warned the same month that climate change and unsustainable 
agricultural practices were expanding the world's arid zones.  The 
UNEP listed Nigeria's neighbors Chad and Niger as among the 
countries at greatest risk from desertification, with desert 
temperatures projected to rise 5 to 7 degrees Celsius (approximately 
14 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit, starting from a base of 90F) and 
rainfall to drop 10-20% by the end of this century.  Worsening 
desertification there almost certainly will affect northern and 
central Nigeria. 
 
Climatic conditions, livestock in the north 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. In Nigeria's far north, soil surface temperatures often exceed 50 
Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) at the peak of the dry season.  Nigeria's 
northern border with Niger is in the Sudano-Sahelian savanna 
ecological zone.  Annual rainfall rarely exceeds 600 mm (24 inches) 
and typically occurs only June to August but is unpredictable and 
unreliable.  Average annual rainfall in parts of the far north is 
less than 400 mm (less than 16 inches).  Wind-blown erosion is 
common, especially as ever-more marginal land is cultivated.  This 
zone is home to Nigeria's largest livestock population, which moves 
 
ABUJA 00002466  002 OF 002 
 
 
north and south following the rains.  Nigeria has about 16 million 
cattle, 13.5 million sheep, 26 million goats, and 2.2 million pigs, 
according to the GON.  The country's drylands support about 90% of 
its cattle, roughly two-thirds of its sheep and goats, and almost 
all of its donkeys, camels, and horses.  Nigeria's grazing capacity 
also is pressed by livestock coming from other Sahelian countries, 
especially Chad, Niger, and Cameroon. 
 
¶7. While Nigeria's human population grew more than four times from 
30 million in 1950 to about 130 million in 2004, in the same period 
its livestock population soared nearly elevenfold - from about 6 
million to 65 million, the U.S.-based Earth Policy Institute 
reported in 2005.  This has damaged Nigeria's grazing lands.  Small 
farmers in the drylands already contend with soils that are poor in 
nutrients and in water-holding capacity - and thus are particularly 
vulnerable.  If an extended drought occurs, then ends, the land and 
its ecology may never be able to recover completely.  Farming and 
herding remove protective vegetation and whip up far-traveling dust 
storms and localized sandstorms that turn fields and pastures into 
wasteland.  The Earth Policy Institute concluded in January 2006 
that northern Nigeria's worsening conditions were less a case of the 
desert moving south, and more of overgrazing, overplowing, and 
deforestation creating space into which the desert extended. 
 
The human cost of desertification 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. The drying out of northern Nigeria already has imposed a 
substantial human cost on the country's inhabitants.  As deserts 
expand, the competition between farmers and pastoralists for 
productive land intensifies.  The UN Office for the Coordination of 
Humanitarian Affairs noted in December 2005 that in 10 northern 
states "tens of thousands of farmers and their families" were forced 
to move off land that became barren.  Displaced farming households 
move south in search of jobs and land they likely will not find. 
Environmental pressures affect nomadic herders, who often are 
Muslim, and who are moving ever farther south in search of better 
grazing areas.  This places a heavy strain on the fertile land of 
central Nigeria.  The GON earlier established transit corridors for 
these nomads, but pastoralists now are forced to move through 
cultivated lands with their livestock, threatening farmers' crops. 
Both farmers and herdsmen are crowding onto the shrinking portion of 
habitable land or into cities.  In Nigeria, this often appears as a 
conflict between Muslim herders and Christian farmers. 
 
The GON has not translated programs into action 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶9. Although Nigeria developed its National Action Program (NAP) 
against desertification in 2000, the GON announced in March 2005 it 
still had not integrated the NAP into its sustainable-development 
strategies and programs.  The GON approved in 2001 a greenbelt 
program to establish a tree shelterbelt 1,500 km (940 miles) long 
and 1 km wide, from the Sokoto Basin in the northwest to the Lake 
Chad Basin in the northeast.  The country's federal, state, and 
local governments were to create this over 14 years by establishing 
in the frontline and buffer states 51 nurseries, each capable of 
producing 1 million seedlings per year. 
 
¶10. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 
reported in December 2005, however, that despite the 2001 launch of 
the NAP, Nigeria had experienced "no tangible improvement" against 
desertification and the GON's annual reforestation programs had 
largely failed.  Without sustained public-awareness campaigns, most 
of these young trees died or were cut down, probably for use as 
firewood.  The greenbelt has not been established, and the Ministry 
of Environment found that only 30,000 hectares (74,000 acres) were 
reforested in 2002, less than 10% of the area claimed by the desert 
that year. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. The growing desertification facing northern Nigeria currently is 
beyond the GON's capacity to address it effectively.  As with so 
many problems the lack of coordination between the federal, state, 
and local governments prevents effective action.  The GON recognizes 
that desertification is a significant problem, but rapid improvement 
of the trend in desertification should not be expected.