VZCZCXYZ0019
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHS #0893 2271233
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 151233Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC MMEDIATE 5618
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6693
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7363
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2542

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000893 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: MIDDLE EAST: ISRAEL/HIZBULLAH COMBAT; 
WESTERN HEMISPHERE: CUBA: CASTRO'S HEALTH; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "No One Won" 
 
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (8/15) 
editorialized: "Following a month of fighting and more than a 
thousand deaths, a ceasefire has finally been established between 
the Israeli Army and Lebanese militia Hizbullah. Both were 
defeated.... The Israelis have found out that to partially leave the 
West Bank and build a fence surrounding the Palestinians is not 
enough to protect them from enemies. Hizbullah's situation is not 
better.... The militia suffered major losses.... It is true that the 
Lebanese united around the group, which symbolized the resistance 
against the attacker. But it will not take much time until 
two-thirds of non-Shiite Lebanese begin to realize that they were 
attacked because of Hizbullah. It will not be a surprise if, when 
things become calm, internal pressures towards disarming the group 
emerge. Let's hope that their respective defeats are able to lead 
both sides to take concrete steps towards peace." 
 
¶2. "War In Lebanon Will Cost Dearly To All" 
 
An editorial in business-oriented Valor Economico (8/15) opined: "If 
unexpected developments - always a risky premise in the Middle East 
- do not occur, 15,000 Lebanese soldiers and a UN 15,000-troop 
multilateral force will replace Israeli soldiers who will have to 
withdraw.... The effects of the use of devastating force by Israel 
are far from being restricted to the physical destruction of 
Lebanon.... Israel counted on the US's total support and the 
sympathy of the immense majority of Israelis to invade Lebanon. This 
support was not sufficient because the military mission's goal of 
destroying Hizbullah's operational capability was unrealistic.... 
Supported by Syria and Iran, Hizbullah will be a key factor during 
the ceasefire.... Hizbullah seems to be stronger and more united 
than the Lebanese political force, which will hardly impose its will 
on the group. If the Israeli rightwing becomes strengthened and the 
trends of destruction of Lebanon are confirmed, then another failure 
of US policy for the region will occur." 
 
¶3. "Rural Cuba" 
 
Agronomist Xico Graziano commented in center-right O Estado de S. 
Paulo (8/15): "With Fidel Castro's illness, no one knows what may 
happen when Cuban socialism collapses.... Insecurity threatens Cuba. 
The loss of the commander may open the door to expectations and 
there is no feasible way to meet them. There will be popular 
frustration.  The island will need help. Like a vulture, Chvez, the 
Venezuelan caudillo, has already offered his petrodollars to buy 
bankrupted sugar plants. Poor Cuba. It gets rid of Fidel Castro's 
long and monotonous speeches, but risks falling into the retrograde 
claws of Bolivar's reincarnation. It is too unlucky." 
 
McMullen