VZCZCXYZ0028
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0892 2271219
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 151219Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5617
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6692
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7362
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2541

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000892 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: GWOT: AIRLINE TERROR PLOT; WESTERN 
HEMISPHERE: CUBA: CASTRO'S HEALTH; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "The Right Way To Fight Terror" 
 
The lead editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (8/12) 
maintained: "Almost five years from the unprecedented September 11 
attacks, only a few things in the world today are as clear as the 
futility and the boomerang effect of the war the US under the Bush 
administration has declared on terrorism. After the British secret 
service succeeded in aborting a plan to explode a dozen of 
commercial flights on their way to the US, the obvious correctness 
of the alternative way to fight the terrorist threat - not with 
bombs, but with continuous police and intelligence action supported 
by legal means - has become equally evident.... In the current war, 
planned violence and suicide attempts by enemies of civilized 
societies result not only in death and destruction, but produce 
collective hysteria, the trampling of liberal values in the name of 
defending them against barbarism, and manipulation of the public 
opinion by authoritarian leaning governments such as the Bush 
administration." 
 
¶2. "Our Man In Havana" 
 
Economist Eliana Cardoso, author of the book 'Cuba after Communism' 
(MIT Press, 1992), commented in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo 
(8/14): "Fidel Castro overthrew Fulgencio Batista's dictatorship in 
1959 to replace it with another dictatorship.... The old tyrant's 
methods still have a follower in Hugo Chvez and his unquenchable 
thirst for power.... Cuba's current economic situation is improving 
thanks to the high price of nickel, tourism income and Hugo Chvez 
assistance.... But the commander is dying.  His legacy is still 
uncertain. An idyllic scenario would be that of Cuba's gradual 
reinsertion into the Latin American community, with the introduction 
of democratic elections supported by economic growth. However, even 
those who believe in Raul Castro's pragmatism doubt that he is 
planning a democratic transition.... Some say Raul is a good 
administrator and, like Chinese Deng Xiaoping, he could open and 
reinforce the economy even while preserving a regime that does not 
respect human rights. But Raul is too old and does not have Fidel's 
popularity. Speculations about his succession will soon begin. It is 
hard to believe that an island less than a 30-minute flight from 
Miami will continue to be impermeable to political changes following 
the dictator's death.... The Cuban economy needs shock therapy, and 
its success depends on the US's change of posture from confrontation 
to cooperation. The first US step should be lifting the commercial 
embargo. Such embargos generally do not meet their goals and, in the 
case of Cuba, they do not destabilize Castro, but only help to 
mobilize the world's sentiment against the US.... A second step 
would be Cuba's admission as a member of the World Bank and the 
IMF.... The transition of Central Europe's communist nations 
indicates that there is life after communism." 
McMullen