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Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO847, MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: CUBA, CASTRO'S HEALTH;

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06SAOPAULO847 2006-08-03 11:20 2011-07-11 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Consulate Sao Paulo 
VZCZCXYZ0020
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0847 2151120
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 031120Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5538
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6612
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7322
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2525
 
UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000847 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: CUBA, CASTRO'S HEALTH; 
SAO PAULO 
 
"Democracy in Cuba" 
 
The lead editorial in liberal, largest national circulation daily 
Folha de S. Paulo (8/3) remarked: "Considering the little 
information available [regarding Castro's health], it is premature 
to believe that Castro's era and the Cuban regime are over. But the 
unprecedented fact that power has been transferred to his brother 
Raul Castro indicates that the island is preparing a transition. 
What is desirable is that a status of full democratic freedom is 
soon achieved. Brazilian diplomacy should work within 
non-intervention limits towards that goal.... Raul Castro is an 
unknown, does not have his brother's charisma and is a hardliner 
responsible for executing dozens of dictator Fulgencio Batista's 
supporters.... Everything indicates that he will follow his 
brother's policy, thereby maintaining the closed regime. It is 
possible that Washington wants to take advantage of a succession in 
Cuba to overthrow the regime. This may not be the best strategy to 
bring democracy to the island. A negotiated democratic transition 
seems to be a better and less traumatic solution. Suggesting the end 
of the US-imposed commercial blockade tends to be a more effective 
method of obtaining concessions from the communist officials than 
demonstrations of force or veiled threats. The main obstacle to this 
strategy is the strong ideological colors with which Washington 
depicts Cuba.... Along with other nations, especially the EU, Canada 
and Mexico, Brazil's diplomats should concentrate efforts both to 
convince the Cuban authorities to agree with a political opening and 
to prevent the White House from carrying out revenge against 
Castro's successors.... Unfortunately, the record of Brazilian 
diplomacy in regards to Cuba is bad. Since President Lula da Silva 
was inaugurated, our diplomacy has limited itself to flattering 
Fidel Castro, without censoring him for human rights violations." 
McMullen