VZCZCXYZ0053
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0842 2141503
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 021503Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5535
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 6605
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7321
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2524

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000842 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: LEFTIST LEANINGS IN 
LATIN AMERICA, HUGO CHAVEZ; GLOBAL ECONOMY: DOHA ROUND; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "Alan Garcia's Inauguration" 
 
Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (8/2) editorialized: "It's 
indicative that two absences have been particularly noticed in the 
inauguration ceremony of Peruvian President Alan Garcia, which was 
attended by nine leaders of the region. The most shocking one was 
that of Argentine President Nestor Kirchner. According to the Buenos 
Aires correspondent, the absence has been attributed in Argentina to 
a request that Venezuelan President Hugo Chvez made to Kirchner. 
Given Argentina's level of dependence on the Venezuelan treasury and 
the services Kirchner has provided to Chvez, such a version is very 
plausible. But Hugo Chvez's absence in Garcia's inauguration was 
perfectly normal. The Venezuelan President clearly interfered in the 
Peruvian electoral process, favoring populist candidate Ollanta 
Humala, with whom, along with his allies Fidel Castro and Evo 
Morales, he intended to strengthen an anti-American front.... 
Certainly not due to a coincidence, at the same time of Garcia's 
inauguration Chvez was touring East European and Asian nations.  In 
Russia he confirmed a USD 3 billion acquisition of aircrafts, 
helicopters and military equipment.... Given his confrontationist 
and bellicose rhetoric, it is entirely possible that Chvez's arms 
acquisition will cause an arms race in Venezuela's neighboring 
nations." 
 
¶2. "The 'Final Effort'" 
 
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo 
commented (8/2): "Eight months was the deadline that USTR Susan 
Schwab established for the success or failure of the emergency 
operation to save the Doha Round, following a meeting with Brazil's 
Foreign Minister Celso Amorim in Rio de Janeiro.... President Bush's 
mandate to negotiate trade agreements will expire in July 2007.... 
Without such a special power -- it is unlikely that Bush will obtain 
a TPA renewal from the Congress - multilateral trade negotiations 
will be unfeasible.... The problem is that 'minimum consensus' can 
mean only another name for what has been called as 'light Doha." It 
is an 'agreement' aimed more at alleviating the total demoralization 
of the optimistic leaders who participated in the talks than at 
opening major markets to less developed nations.... Therefore, it is 
more realistic to expect, if not a total fiasco, at least an 
unsatisfactory solution for Brazil's interests as a result of the 
current attempts to save Doha." 
 
¶3. "A Light Or A Postponed Doha?" 
 
University Professor Marcos Sawaya Jank maintained in center-right O 
Estado de S. Paulo (8/2): "It is clear that the US is not willing to 
make any effort to reduce its agricultural subsidies.  A different 
situation may take place in 2008. First, because there will be 
presidential elections in November and Bush will leave the office. 
Everyone hopes that the new president will be less unilateralist. If 
the Middle East's political situation deteriorates - and everything 
indicates it will - there are reasons to believe that the US will 
look for multilateral solutions. Doha's ambitious mandate was a 
direct consequence of the commotion caused by Sept. 11. Second, the 
US will approve its new Farm Act, now in a context of serious fiscal 
deficit.... But the most important fact that will push an 
agricultural reform in the US is the dispute involving cotton 
subsidies conducted by Brazil. So far, the US's implementation of 
the WTO's decision has been only partial and cosmetic. Brazil has 
postponed the adoption of tougher attitudes on this issue that 
should include immediate retaliations. Actually, the case of cotton 
opens doors for several similar disputes, since the condemned 
mechanisms are the same applied in relation to soybeans, corn, rice 
and other grains." 
McMullen