VZCZCXRO0442
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHRB #1481/01 2161007
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 041007Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4399
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 3043
RUEHNK/AMEMBASSY NOUAKCHOTT PRIORITY 3260
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 4326
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY 5562
RUEHCL/AMCONSUL CASABLANCA PRIORITY 1969

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 RABAT 001481 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/MAG, NEA/PI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MO
SUBJECT: TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY: THE GOM AND POLITICAL 
POLLING 
 
REF: A. RABAT 00308 
 
     ¶B. RABAT 01329 
 
¶1.  (U) This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Please 
protect accordingly. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The Ambassador, accompanied by Sarah 
Johnson, resident country director of the International 
Republican Institute (IRI), and Emboffs met with Abdelaziz 
Meziane Belfkih, one of the king's advisors, on July 24 and 
with Youssef Amrani, MFA Director of Bilateral Affairs, on 
July 31, to preview the second IRI political opinion poll to 
the GOM.  As the first IRI poll (reftel A) had garnered 
extensive media coverage and criticism, the Ambassador 
requested these meetings to ensure that Moroccan officials 
received a first-hand appreciation of IRI's objectives, which 
are to promote democratic techniques, and to describe 
scientific approaches to polling, as well as to discuss 
specific results of the second poll.  These meetings with key 
GOM officials served as an initial step in the Mission's 2007 
parliamentary election strategy.  The Ambassador expressed 
the USG's continuing support for Morocco's democratic 
evolution and highlighted the importance, as well as 
normalcy, of scientifically valid polling as a tool for 
political parties in their attempts to gain votes.  Polling, 
said the Ambassador, is a common instrument in the arsenal of 
tools used in election preparation.  End Summary. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Responding to the GOM's stated commitment to a more 
democratic Morocco, meetings with Belfkih and Amrani were 
arranged in order to ensure a clear understanding of IRI's 
objectives, and to kick off engagement with the GOM in the 
execution of the Mission's 2007 parliamentary election 
strategy. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  The poll, undertaken by the independent Moroccan 
polling and marketing firm, LMS-CSA, was commissioned by IRI 
under its MEPI-financed cooperative agreement under USAID's 
Consortium for Electoral and Political Process Strengthening 
(CEPPS) in order to demonstrate polling as a political 
technique which informs the development of party platforms 
and establishes a basis for attracting voters.  LMS-CSA was 
recognized by both Belfkih and Amrani as a reputable firm. 
For the discussion, IRI provided Belfkih and Amrani a set of 
the slides which will be used by IRI in training sessions for 
political parties.  In both briefings, IRI underlined the 
importance of the poll is the process or methodology, not the 
actual results.  The technique and methodological uses of the 
poll will be communicated to the political parties during 
training sessions. 
 
------------------- 
The Belfkih Meeting 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Belfkih was clearly pleased to have been provided 
an advance briefing.  In discussing political party 
identification, Belfkih said that, in the Moroccan context, 
self-identifiers are "militants" or "activists," who follow a 
party "blindly." 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The IRI results, according to Belfkih, track well 
with the results of other polls that have been taken in 
Morocco.  Belfkih was not surprised by the low number of 
Moroccans whose concerns were social justice (four percent) 
and the protection of rights and liberties (four percent). 
He pointed out that Moroccans perceived the availability of 
employment as their main concern (79 percent) in the poll and 
that it probably means social justice to them, i.e., social 
justice and employment are linked.  In the IRI presentation, 
the responsibility for resolving the unemployment problem 
rests with the government (38 percent) and the Minister of 
Employment (43 percent). 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Belfkih was most interested in the prospects for 
the political parties.  He wanted to know the potential 
strength of the Party of Justice and Development (PJD), which 
received 46 percent in the hypothetical vote question (NOTE: 
The poll found that of the 1071 respondents likely to be 
voters, nine percent said outright they would vote for the 
PJD.  Of the 55 percent of voters who were undecided, 66 
percent said they would "lean" toward the PJD, resulting in 
the 46 percent figure. END NOTE.).  Johnson informed Belfkih 
 
RABAT 00001481  002 OF 003 
 
 
that the PJD markets itself, develops political messages that 
seem to resonate with the "common man," and it defines its 
political mission. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The IRI poll indicated that eight percent of the 
likely voters did not support any party, with one percent 
likely to cast a blank ballot.  Belfkih was extremely 
interested in what the poll interpretation was not saying, 
i.e., that further analysis of the data might reveal more 
information.  He suspected that the Justice and Charity 
Organization (JCO) might be captured in the eight percent. 
 
------------------ 
The Amrani Meeting 
------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Amrani, because of the issues covered in the poll, 
suggested that IRI provide a similar presentation to the 
Ministry of Interior (MOI) prior to presenting the poll to 
the political parties.  "It is better to have the MOI 
informed of the poll and its intentions in order to avoid any 
misunderstandings down the road," Amrani explained. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Discussing the sample used for the poll, Amrani 
was glad to hear that respondents were representative of 
Morocco's population. He highlighted that 48 percent of the 
1500 total respondents for this iteration of the poll were 
illiterate, which he said is "the reality of Morocco." 
Amrani did not appear surprised by the slide showing jobs and 
unemployment as the main concern of respondents, and 
explained that, although an overwhelming majority of 
respondents said it is the responsibility of the "state" to 
create jobs, creating public sector jobs is "anti-World Bank" 
and not in the best interest of the economy.  Amrani added 
that "it is illogical that people think the government must 
create more public sector jobs." 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Amrani explained that, in his view, the slide 
showing the percentage of likely voters (72 percent) for the 
next round of parliamentary elections may be inaccurate and 
misleading.  Speaking personally as a Moroccan and "not for 
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs," Amrani said that Morocco 
has a long history of citizens losing confidence in 
elections, and that the high number of potential voters may 
be a result of the economic situation in certain regions.  As 
crop production rises, so does peoples' sense that their 
economic situation is doing well, which makes people more 
likely to want to vote, he explained. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Turning to potential prospects for the political 
parties, Amrani was seized by the presentation that an 
overwhelming majority of undecided voters are leaning towards 
the PJD.  Amrani said the results of this poll will be an 
important tool for political parties to use in order to react 
to the concerns of the population.  Amrani asked how the 
political parties were integrated into the process of the 
poll.  He wondered if the political parties played a role in 
the crafting of the questions for the poll.  Amrani was 
pleased that the political parties had a chance to recommend 
questions for the second poll questionnaire.  Responding to 
Amrani's question about the reasoning behind the 
commissioning of the poll by IRI, Ambassador stressed that 
public opinion polling is an important tool that provides 
useful and relevant information for political parties to use 
as they devise platforms and strategies. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Again speaking unofficially, Amrani said, 
unfortunately, should the results of the second poll reach 
the press that the press will focus solely on the results 
showing 46 percent of potential voters leaning towards the 
PJD.  Amrani said, in his view, that this will create a large 
national debate and that people "will attack the poll" asking 
"what is behind the poll."  Continuing his "personal" 
remarks, Amrani said that the timing of the polls is a 
significant factor, as the Islamist position gains from 
events occurring in the region.  Amrani said that if a poll 
was done tomorrow, the Islamist's numbers would increase 
given the situation in Lebanon and Iraq.  Amrani argued, 
though, that the PJD does not have the expertise that more 
established parties like the Socialist Union of Popular 
Forces (USFP) or Istiqlal possess. 
 
¶14.  (SBU)  Amrani emphasized that the 2007 legislative 
 
RABAT 00001481  003 OF 003 
 
 
elections will be a "model for the region," as Morocco will 
witness its freest and fairest elections to date.  The king 
has a vision for the country, is realizing this vision step 
by step, and the 2007 elections will be an important 
opportunity for the future of Morocco, Amrani said. In 
closing, Amrani asked if the political parties view polling 
as an important resource or as a way to manipulate 
information. 
****************************************** 
Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website; 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/rabat 
****************************************** 
 
RILEY