VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #2131/01 2362129
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 242129Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5096
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5902
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1954
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AUG 0030
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0891
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1018
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002131 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTIONS: NOW THERE ARE TEN...OR ELEVEN? 
 
REF: QUITO 02064 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on 
August 22 announced that it had approved the candidacies of 
10 of the original 17 presidential hopefuls, and reported 
that five independents failed to secure required signatures 
and would be disqualified.  PSP candidate Gilmar Gutierrez 
was disqualified by the TSE on August 17 for not registering 
within three days of his brother Lucio's rejection; the PSP 
appeal of this decision to the Constitutional Court is 
pending.  In other electoral news, Rafael Correa criticized 
front-runner Leon Roldos for backsliding on his agreement 
with Freddy Ehlers; Alvaro Noboa faces charges of exceeding 
campaign spending caps by $3.3 m.; and Correa brushed off 
questions about his August 17 visit to Venezuela, where he 
had dinner with President Chavez.  A recent poll found that 
65% of those surveyed remain undecided, while Roldos remains 
out front with 26%.  Results of a televised debate on August 
22 among the top five candidates will be reported SepTel. 
End Summary. 
 
TSE Reduces Presidential Field 
 
SIPDIS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) The TSE announced on August 23 that independent 
presidential candidates Julio Pincay (MIPE), Lenin Torres 
(MRPP), and Marcelo Aguinaga (MCN) were disqualified for 
failing to attain the required 89,903 signatures (1% of the 
national electorate) in support of their candidacies at the 
head of new movements.  (Note: party candidates are not 
required to present signatures, only new political 
movements).  The TSE is also expected to rule against 
independents Pedro Roura (MRP), Franklin Munoz (MNDC), 
Marcelo Larrea (the Bolivarian ALBA candidate) this week. 
Thus far, TSE has approved seven political party candidates 
and three independents: 
 
¶1. Leon Roldos, RED/Democratic Left Alliance (RED/ID) 
Movement.  VP Ramiro Gonzalez. 
 
¶2.  Cynthia Viteri, Social Christian Party (PSC). VP  Ernesto 
Davalos. 
 
¶3.  Alvaro Noboa. Institutional Renewal Party of National 
Action (PRIAN).  VP Vincente Taiano. 
 
¶4.  Rafael Correa, PAIS Alliance Movement (PAIS).  VP 
Lenin Moreno. 
 
¶5.  Fernando Rosero, Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE).  VP 
Suzy Mendoza. 
 
¶6.  Luis Villacis, Democratic People's Movement (MPD).  VP 
Cesar Buelva. 
 
¶7.  Marco Proano Maya, Movement for Democratic Vindication 
(MRD).  VP Galo Cabanilla. 
 
¶8.  Jaime Damerval, Concentration of People's Forces (CFP) 
Party.  VP Lida Moreno. 
 
¶9.  Luis Macas, Pluri-National Pachakutik United Movement 
(PK).  VP Cesar Sacoto. 
 
¶10.  Carlos Sagnay, The Eclectic Movement (ME). VP Luis 
Tuaran. 
 
Gutierrez Brothers Out? 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The TSE on August 17 rejected Gilmar Gutierrez' (PSP) 
presidential candidacy, ruling that he failed to register 
within three days following their July 16 rejection of 
brother Lucio Gutierrez' candidacy (on the grounds Gutierrez 
had accepted support for his 2002 candidacy from abroad). 
The Gutierrez brothers immediately proclaimed their party the 
victim of a second violation, and appealed to the 
Constitutional Court on August 18.  The TC is expected to 
rule on the issue later this week, but their decision will 
likely be based on political calculations of the leading 
parties. 
 
65% Undecided 
------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) An August 19 "Informe Confidencial" poll revealed 
that Roldos continues to lead the herd with 26%, Viteri is in 
second with 15%, and Noboa and Correa are tied with 12%.  The 
poll found that 65% of those surveyed remain undecided. 
Public opinion analysts say that number is expected to 
decline to 40% during the 45-day campaign period, which opens 
on August 29.  They blamed the lateness of many candidates to 
register, and uncertainty generated by Noboa's temporary 
withdrawal from the race, for the high rate of voter 
indecision.  Others claim it reflects public rejection and 
apathy over electoral politics. 
 
Roldos Clarifies, Correa Attacks 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Correa publicly criticized Roldos for imperiously 
altering the August 10 "pact of the center-left" brokered by 
potential candidate and TV personality Freddy Ehlers.  The 
document signed by Ehlers and Correa called for a constituent 
assembly to be convoked by the new president the day after 
taking office, on January 16.  In signing the accord several 
days after Correa, Roldos altered the document by hand, 
penning a qualifier that he would call for a constituent 
assembly only if Congress failed to act on political reforms 
he would propose be put to a referendum.  Correa accused 
Roldos of backsliding, questioning his attitude (for altering 
the document "as if he were Emperor") and commitment to 
political reform.  Roldos countered that his private 
agreement with Ehlers had always included the grace period 
for Congress to act on reforms. 
 
Correa Visits Chavez 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Correa confirmed reports about an August 17 visit he 
made to Venezuela, during which he reportedly traveled to 
Venezuela with his campaign manager Ricardo Patino to attend 
an event, and subsequently dined or stayed in Chavez' 
parent's home in Barinas where he dined with President 
Chavez.  In confirming the reports, Correa claimed he had not 
solicited the meeting, and denied any formal connection to 
the Venezuelan Bolivarian Movement.  He acknowledged only a 
"personal friendship with President Hugo Chavez" and did not 
disclose the topics of their conversation. 
 
Noboa Exceeds Spending Cap 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) The TSE reported on August 23 that Noboa had already 
exceeded the $1.7 million electoral spending cap by $3.3 
million, before officially registering as a candidate. 
Noboa's running mate, Vicente Taiano, rejected the claim, 
claiming that Noboa's radio and television spots support his 
humanitarian endeavors and are not part of the presidential 
campaign.  Noboa has overspent before--he was ordered to pay 
$4.7 million in fines for overspending on his 2002 
presidential bid.  Ecuadorian electoral law stipulates that 
any candidate who exceeds spending caps must pay a fine for 
twice the amount by which the cap was exceeded.  Some 
speculate that Noboa's recent indecision over whether to run 
was related to the looming fine. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The presidential field should be finalized by the 
end of the week, and the formal 45-day campaign period opens 
on August 29.  The large number of undecided voters means the 
race is still wide open.  Though Roldos has consistently 
maintained his edge among decided voters, Ecuadorian voters 
have a recent history of late support for outsider 
candidates.  A recent poll shows support for Correa strongest 
among the most educated, wealthiest voters.  The deciding 
vote, however, will come from the more populous poor, who 
have yet to decide who they favor among the confusing array 
of candidates. 
JEWELL