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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5078
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5891
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1947
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AUG 0023
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0876
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1000
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002094 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: NORTHERN BORDER PROVINCES TILTING TOWARD ROLDOS 
 
REF: QUITO 001588 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: The northern provinces of Imbabura and 
Carchi are strongholds of the Democratic Left (ID) party and, 
in Imbabura, the indigenous movement.  Predictably, Leon 
Roldos is the acknowledged front runner in presidential 
elections.  There is little agreement among key actors over 
which presidential contender follows Roldos, reflecting 
provincial politics fractured between indigenous groups and 
other national parties and local movements, and widespread 
rural poverty fueling homegrown political populism.  During a 
recent visit, we also heard differing views of the status of 
electoral preparations and the potential for electoral fraud. 
 End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) PolOffs continued the Embassy's democracy outreach 
(see Reftel) with visits to the central highland and northern 
border provinces of Imbabura and Carchi on August 8-10. 
PolOffs met with members of the press, local government 
officials, NGOs and party leaders.  In all private and public 
events, PolOffs stressed the importance of ensuring free, 
fair, transparent and inclusive elections and highlighted USG 
support to the region. 
 
¶3.  (U) Every person we spoke with in Carchi province (which 
borders Colombia) painted a depressing view of deteriorating 
social and economic conditions in the province.  Officials 
believe rampant illegal Colombian immigration uniformly 
brings crime and poverty to Carchi. Dollarization was 
repeatedly blamed for making Ecuadorian goods and labor more 
expensive than Colombian goods and labor (note: Ecuadorian 
gasoline, however, is still much cheaper).  Extortion in the 
form of a "tax" from anonymous criminal elements has become 
rampant and largely unreported.  There is little investment 
or capital; four of seven banks have closed.  Ecuadorians are 
fleeing the province.  Some officials believe the 
international community has forgotten the province, 
complaining that Cotacachi municipality, in Imbabura 
province, has support from 60 NGOS while Tulcan only has one. 
 When PolOffs pointed out specific significant projects 
funded by USAID in Carchi, Tulcan municipal officials said 
they had thought the programs were funded by the United 
Nations.  Former general and Carchi Prefect Rene Yandun (ID) 
asserted that the hopelessness, lack of security and emptying 
province pose a substantial risk to Ecuador's national 
security. 
 
¶4.  (U) Imbabura officials were a bit more upbeat than their 
counterparts in Carchi.  They acknowledged USG assistance in 
many areas.  The populist themes of decentralization, 
employment and corruption, were all common refrains, but with 
little in the way of substantive proposals.  The prefect 
(U.S. governor-equivalent) said that personality, more than 
ideology, was the major issue in the elections. 
 
Electoral Trends 
---------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Imbabura is a mountainous province with a rural 
indigenous population of approximately 40% of its 344,000 
inhabitants.  It is home to the major highland indigenous 
cities of Otavalo and Cotacachi, which draw many tourists for 
their local attractions and handicrafts.  Eleven percent of 
the population is Afro-Ecuadorian, concentrated mostly in the 
Chota valley area, which produced most of the members of 
Ecuador's very successful World Cup national soccer team. 
All agree Democratic Left (ID) party machinery is strong; 
however, election results contradict the conventional wisdom. 
 A popular ID defector allied with the PRIAN (Roldosista 
Institutional Renewal Party) to win the province-wide 
prefecture (U.S. governor-equivalent) in 2004.  His ID 
challenger came in second and the indigenous Pachakutik 
(MUPP-NP) candidate a distant third.  None of Imbabura's 
current congressional deputies are ID: one is Pachakutik, one 
is presidential candidate for the Democratic Revindication 
Movement (MRD) Marco Proano, and the other deputy is a one 
man political party.  The province's 2002 presidential 
returns were consistent with Ecuador as a whole, giving 26% 
of the vote to Lucio Gutierrez and 23% to Alvaro Noboa in the 
first round and electing Gutierrez resoundingly in the 
second. 
 
¶6.  (U) The northern border province of Carchi is less 
populous and less indigenous than Imbabura and more reliably 
an ID stronghold.  Of its 153,000 inhabitants, none are rural 
indigenous, although 11% are Afro-Ecuadorian (again from the 
Chota valley area, which forms the border between the two 
provinces).  In the prefecture race of 2004, the ID candidate 
handily beat his challenger (who formed an alliance of five 
little known parties) 41% to 20%.  The mayor of Tulcan, the 
only principal urban area, located on the border with 
Colombia, also hails from the ID.  In the presidential 
elections, however, the top vote-getter in the first round 
was coastal populist Alvaro Noboa with 29%.  The ID 
candidate, Rodrigo Borja, came in second with 23%.  A local 
political entity, the Independent Work and Democracy Movement 
(MITD), has recently become the main competitor of the ID in 
Carchi province. 
 
Election Officials Sanguine about Fraud 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Imbabura electoral, government and party officials 
were generally satisfied with electoral preparations. 
Electoral tribunal officials did not express any needs or 
worries about the process and welcomed the possible 
participation in their province of international observers. 
They proudly described a rural democracy education drive 
which presented seminars in remote villages to voters. 
Electoral officials also claimed a pilot electronic vote 
project tested in Otavalo in 2004 had been a great success. 
Unfortunately, due to a scheduling conflict with elections in 
Brazil, electronic voting would not take place this year as 
it would rely on Brazilian machinery.  No official we spoke 
to believed electoral fraud was likely. 
 
¶8.  (U) Carchi officials were similarly positive about the 
pace of preparations and dismissive of any possibility for 
fraud, highlighting their own rural outreach efforts and a 
democracy library they hoped would become more interactive. 
They requested a photocopier and computers for the library 
and like their neighbors in Imbabura, welcomed the prospect 
of international election observers. 
 
Election Watchdog Groups More Concerned 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Meanwhile, the major NGO operating in the two 
provinces, Citizen Participation (PC), had a much more 
pessimistic view of election preparations and the 
opportunities for fraud.  In both provinces, PC reported a 
significant risk of fraud, supplying anecdotes from 
observations in the 2004 municipal elections.  One volunteer 
who had counted the ballots in one polling station later 
learned that a much different number appeared in the final 
tally.  Another volunteer caught an election worker 
surreptitiously marking votes that had been turned in blank. 
One enterprising candidate in Imbabura had supplied rural 
voters with a left rubber boot before the election and 
promised to deliver the right boots after he won.  The 
Imbabura PC representative ridiculed the electoral tribunal's 
rural democracy seminars; he heard that several passed 
unattended.  PC representatives in both provinces said they 
had nearly ecruited all the volunteers they needed for their 
own observation efforts. 
 
¶10.  (U) In Carchi province, the leaders of the local 
political movement, MITD, expressed concern that they might 
suffer as a result of their lack of representation on the 
provincial tribunal, despite being the second most powerful 
party in the province.  (Note:  by law, the top seven 
political parties at the national level in the last elections 
are represented on the tribunals.  Only parties, not 
movements, are represented.) 
 
Female Candidate Quota Open to Interpretation 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) Although no one we met openly opposed the 45% quota 
for female candidates in this election, electoral tribunal 
officials from both provinces said the rule was open to 
interpretation (as to how to alternate between male 
and females on candidate lists).  Some electoral officials 
claimed that many women are not interested in participating 
as political candidates.  The Cotacachi municipal council VP, 
Patricia Espinoza, vehemently disagreed with that view.  She 
believed the quota rule would be widely misapplied in 
Ecuador, hurting women's representation.  For example, some 
parties would place women low on their candidate lists, 
virtually ruling out their prospects for election.  Espinoza 
said she is active in a growing movement of female 
politicians who are pressing national election authorities to 
properly implement the quota. 
 
Presidential Predictions Varied 
------------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The only consistent prediction for the upcoming 
elections was agreement that the ID as a party and Leon 
Roldos as its supported candidate would do well in both 
provinces.  In Carchi, most believed the MITD will come in 
second to the ID in both presidential and congressional 
balloting.  Cynthia Viteri (PSC) and Rafael Correa (PAIS) are 
the only candidates who have already campaigned in Carchi 
thus far.  (Note: the formal campaign period opens on August 
29.)  MITD leaders endorsed Viteri during her visit. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) In Imbabura, the PRIAN prefect claimed Noboa and 
Roldos were leading the presidential sweepstakes and that 
congressional seats would be divided among their followers. 
The ID congressional candidate in Imbabura, however, believed 
that Rafael Correa was the current leader, followed by 
Roldos.  He was adamant that Cynthia Viteri and Alvaro Noboa 
were weak in Imbabura and the congressional seats would be 
split between the ID, Correa's PAIS and the Ecuadorian 
Roldosista Party (PRE - despite the name, not linked to 
Roldos).  Cotacachi municipal council VP Espinoza, whose 
municipality is heavily indigenous and pro-Pachakutik, 
lamented the fracturing of the leftist vote, saying 
Pachakutik was poised at the brink of disaster. 
 
Public Outreach Events 
---------------------- 
 
¶14.  (U) PolOff took questions from the press in both Carchi 
and Imbabura and gave a radio interview in Imbabura on August 
¶10.  Questions from the press focused on the reason for the 
visit and how the USG views preparations for elections.  The 
radio interview covered a broad range of topics.  We 
emphasized USG wishes to help strengthen democracy in 
Ecuador, our broad relationship beyond commercial issues and 
stressed our theme for these outreach visits: vote and vote 
wisely. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15.  (U) Votes from Imbabura and Carchi made up only 3 and 
1%, respectively, in the 2002 elections.  Though not the most 
populous region in Ecuador, the visit to this corner of the 
country highlighted several broader trends.  Social and 
economic woes underlie these elections in many parts of the 
country, fueling populist appeals.  While national parties 
reach these parts of the country, often local movements or 
personalities sway the voters more.  The ID and Roldos will 
likely do well in this region but fractured politics and 
socio-economic problems will challenge any candidate who wins. 
JEWELL