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RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1940
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AUG 0016
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RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002078 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: CARRION'S MFA REFOCUSES ECUADOR'S FOREIGN POLICY 
 
REF: A. QUITO 00646 
     ¶B. QUITO 01112 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Since taking office in October 2005, 
Foreign Minister Francisco Carrion, Ecuador's top career 
diplomat, has attempted to restore credibility to the 
ministry by reversing the politicization and decline of the 
diplomatic corps under his immediate predecessors.  Part of 
this process involved vigorously and publicly defending 
Ecuadorian national interests against perceived slights from 
Colombia (fumigation) and the U.S. (criticizing our human 
rights and terrorism reports).  Another important departure 
by Carrion entailed convoking foreign policy elites, 
academics, and civil society to plot the nation's foreign 
policy through 2020, dubbed the National Foreign Policy Plan 
2006-2020 (PLANEX).  PLANEX mastermind Amb. Javier Ponce told 
us recently that the document, due for release this fall, 
will seek to shift and broaden Ecuador's foreign policy focus 
on conflict with neighboring Peru and Ecuador's traditional 
multilateralism to a  more strategic framework with emphasis 
on relations with the U.S., Asia and Spain/Europe.  It will 
include a call for denying any foreign troop presence on 
Ecuadorian soil, an oblique but not definitive reference to 
the U.S. Forward Operating Location (FOL) in Manta.  End 
Summary. 
 
Carrion's MFA 
------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Carrion's elevation to foreign minister came after 
a serious degradation of relations with the U.S. and Colombia 
under his predecessor, Antonio Parra, and marked the return 
to power of Ecuador's traditional foreign affairs elite. 
Carrion, the grandson of a cultural and literary icon, has 
restored the ministry's prestige and energized its regional 
diplomacy.  He has been largely successful in rebuilding 
relations with Colombia and with boosting morale within the 
MFA's ranks.  His natural left-of-center affinities still 
place him at odds with some U.S. policies, but he recognizes 
the importance of the U.S. relationship and has put it back 
on a more cordial, professional and productive footing.  Part 
of his personal credibility here derives from Carrion's 
vigorous defense of perceived Ecuadorian sovereign interests, 
publicly playing off hyper-nationalistic sentiment.  For 
example, he publicly and strenuously took issue with USG 
criticism of the GOE in the annual human rights and terror 
reports (RefTels).  Privately, Carrion has been much more 
measured, preserving a respectful and open tone to the 
bilateral dialogue. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Partly as a result of his public criticism of U.S. 
and Colombian actions on several fronts, Carrion is widely 
respected here as a champion of Ecuadorian sovereignty and is 
considered one of Palacio's strongest ministers.  Some here 
now believe that Carrion might remain in office should 
frontrunning candidate Leon Roldos win the presidency. 
Carrion is considered close to the Democratic Left party 
leadership, which is supporting Roldos. 
 
Towards a New Foreign Policy Agenda 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Carrion asked fellow career diplomat Ambassador 
Javier Ponce to lead the brainstorming process to develop a 
new, forward-looking foreign policy document based on 
consensus.  The consensus-based PLANEX review of national 
objectives has entailed a seminar series (more than 15), 
bringing together panels of experts drawn from government and 
civil society (some from abroad) to focus on different 
foreign policy issues.  The objective is to seek consensus on 
the challenges facing Ecuador and to inform an outcome 
document, scheduled to be released this fall.  The first 
draft of the document is already circulating, and Ponce 
revealed some of the substance in the 150-page draft during a 
meeting with PolOffs on August 4. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Typical of the Carrion inner circle, which cut its 
teeth on resolution of the 50-year border dispute with Peru, 
Ponce is a Harvard-educated diplomat who claims to seek to 
leverage the nation's relationship with the U.S. to advance 
democracy, stability, and economic development in Ecuador. 
In doing so, however, Ponce favored speakers who are 
decidedly critical of USG policies, assuring a final product 
that is skeptical of USG motives but committed to further 
engagement in the name of Ecuador's national interests. 
Ponce contrasts this outlook with Ecuador's traditional 
foreign 
policy, which has been almost exclusively focused on 
conflict with Peru, and seeking small country refuge in 
multilateralism and regionalism. 
 
PLANEX Objectives 
----------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) The intent of this exercise, according to Ponce, is 
to provide the incoming government with the benefit of 
considered wisdom, thereby institutionalizing the main lines 
of Ecuador's foreign policy.  It aims to develop a permanent 
foreign policy framework to defend national sovereignty and 
Ecuadorian territory; protect Ecuadorians living abroad; 
consolidate national identity; develop an international 
system more just and democratic (that preserves peace, equal 
distribution of wealth, and ecological preservation); and 
more effectively insert Ecuador in the international 
community to help consolidate democracy, respect for human 
rights, sustainable development, and security of citizens in 
Ecuador. 
 
--Security:  Preservation of territorial integrity based on 
existing agreements that set national borders; fortify 
capacity to control transnational crime; define function of 
armed services (ensure that they don't assume police 
functions -- language we understand to be partially directed 
at limiting military engagement in support of USG 
counternarcotics goals); establish consensus that no foreign 
military should have a permanent presence in Ecuador; 
formulate criteria for Ecuadorian participation in 
peacekeeping operations and fortify capacity to contribute to 
humanitarian missions.  PLANEX documents offer some further 
detail, by theme: 
 
--Immigrant Protection:  The protection of Ecuadorians and 
their families living abroad.  Protection of refugees 
resident in Ecuador. 
 
--Democracy and Human Rights:  International training and 
cooperation to strengthen state institutions (Congress, 
judiciary, police etc.); establish permanent mechanisms to 
fulfill decisions, efforts, and presentations of reports to 
organizations created by international human rights 
instruments; and harmonize national legislation with 
international human rights instruments subscribed to by 
Ecuador. 
 
--Colombia:  Prevent the regionalization of Colombian 
conflict; continued respect for the principle of 
non-intervention in the affairs of other states; coordination 
with other neighbors of Colombia on migration, border 
integration, and control of criminal organizations and 
illegal trafficking of persons of goods; work with regional 
organizations to find a peaceful solution to the Colombian 
conflict; and consolidate a relationship of friendship and 
cooperation through cultural, social, and economic 
integration, with special attention to energy, tourism, and 
commercial integration. 
 
--International Economic Relations and Regional Integration: 
Economic, social, and cultural integration of Latin America 
is a top priority.  Achieved through CAN, South American 
Nations, Rio Group, SELA, and ALADI.  Increase economic ties 
with the EU through an FTA with CAN countries.  Increase 
development cooperation to consolidate democratic 
institutions, human rights, environmental protection, and 
social and economic development for impoverished Ecuadorians. 
 
--International Cooperation and Development:  Improve 
capacity of Ecuador's diplomatic service; reduce the 
proportion of political appointees as Ambassadors; form 
permanent trade negotiating teams; review diplomatic presence 
abroad; and improve foreign policy coordination with civil 
society. 
 
PLANEX: U.S.-Ecuadorian Relations 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Recognizing Ecuador's chronic political and 
development challenges, Carrion hopes to use PLANEX to focus 
Ecuador's bilateral relationships more strategically. 
According to Ponce, Carrion and others here recognize the 
"obvious" failings of multilateral organizations and their 
inability to advance change in underdeveloped countries like 
Ecuador.  Carrion therefore seeks to refocus Ecuador's 
relations on key bilateral partners; Colombia, Peru, Spain, 
and the United States. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Another focus of the PLANEX outcome document, 
according to Ponce, will be on Ecuador's democratic 
consolidation, respect for human rights, protection for 
Ecuadorian citizens living in the U.S., access of Ecuadorian 
products to the U.S. market, and bilateral and multilateral 
cooperation to combat transnational crime.  Rather than 
addressing short-term challenges (he mentioned the FOL, FTA, 
ATPDEA extension), the PLANEX document would choose instead 
to focus on broader, more long-term interests. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) In an oblique reference to the FOL, Ponce said the 
PLANEX document would argue that no foreign soldiers should 
be permitted in Ecuador.  (He admitted that it could be 
argued that FOL employees are not soldiers but technicians in 
the joint fight against drugs.)  To meet its own security 
needs, the GOE hopes to develop indigenous capacity building 
mechanisms to help Ecuador monitor narco-trafficking for 
itself.  Ponce criticized the historic role of the military 
here, given its direct role in the fall of Ecuador's last 
three presidents.  U.S. military assistance, he said, could 
also be viewed as a threat to stability, since it reinforces 
the independence of the military.  (Note:  Carrion and 
Defense Minister Oswaldo Jarrin are considered close allies 
within the cabinet.  Jarrin's Defense White Paper was 
published on August 10 (Septel) and like Carrion's PLANEX, 
purports to be Ecuador's first comprehensive defense policy 
review since it ended its border conflict with Peru in 1998.) 
 
 
USG Interests 
------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Carrion has had notable success restoring 
credibility and prestige to the foreign ministry during his 
short tenure, and PLANEX is clearly a worthy exercise from an 
Ecuadorian perspective.  But could it end up affecting us 
negatively?  The document certainly reflects the general 
ideological orientation of Ecuador's foreign policy 
establishment which does not fully embrace USG perspectives. 
The PLANEX results might initially guide the next 
government's policy, depending on who wins the election, 
either by formal adoption or less formally as an inherited 
political template.  As such it has the potential to harm USG 
interests by limiting the room for maneuver of a pro-U.S. 
administration, particularly on Manta.  It also has (lesser) 
potential to help us by constraining the actions of a 
government more overtly hostile to U.S. interests. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Since the PLANEX document is non-binding, future 
governments will be free to invoke or ignore it as they see 
fit.  But as an accurate reflection of prevailing policy 
opinion across most of the political spectrum, it portends 
challenges likely to be faced by the USG in advancing some of 
our bilateral and regional counternarcotics and 
counterterrorism objectives. 
JEWELL