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UNCLAS QUITO 002064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTION: THEN THERE WERE SEVENTEEN 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  The registration period for all 
candidates running for office in October 15 elections closed 
on August 15, attracting an unprecedented seventeen 
presidential aspirants. Eccentric billionaire candidate 
Alvaro Noboa announced his reentry, oddly declaring himself 
"a hero of God who will slay his cowardly adversaries." 
Meanwhile, PAIS movement candidate Rafael Correa has taken 
some heat for not entering congressional candidates, pledging 
instead to immediately convoke a constituent assembly to 
change the constitution.  The proliferation of presidential 
candidates will make elections more complicated to administer 
and ensure continued political fragmentation.  End Summary. 
 
Seventeen Presidential Candidates Registered 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Seventeen presidential candidates, with a 
disproportionate number of the major contenders hailing from 
Guayaquil, have now registered (up from 11 in 2002, and only 
six in 1998), including eccentric billionaire Alvaro Noboa, 
who reentered the race at the last minute and told the press 
that he felt obligated as a centrist to offer a 
non-traditional candidacy in opposition to Rafael Correa. 
Going further, Noboa claimed to be a religious hero and with 
the bible in hand would beat his cowardly adversaries. 
Current registered candidates, in rough descending order of 
popularity according to recent polls, include: 
 
¶1.  Leon Roldos (24%), RED/Democratic Left Alliance (RED/ID) 
Movement.  VP Ramiro Gonzalez (ID) 
 
¶2.  Cynthia Viteri (17%), Social Christian Party (PSC). VP 
Ernesto Davalos. 
 
¶3.  Rafael Correa (10%), PAIS Alliance (PAIS) Movement.  VP 
Lenin Moreno. 
 
¶4.  Alvaro Noboa  (10%). Institutional Renewal Party of 
National Action (PRIAN  VP Vincente Taiano. 
 
¶5.  Fernando Rosero (3%), Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE). 
VP Susy Mendoza. 
 
¶6.  Gilmar Gutierrez (n/a), Patriotic Society Party (PSP). 
VP Leonardo Escobar. 
 
¶7.  Jaime Damerval (1%), Concentration of People's Forces 
(CFP) Party. VP Lida Moreno. 
 
¶8.  Luis Macas (1%), Pluri-National Pachakutik United 
Movement (PK).  VP Cesar Sacoto. 
 
¶9.  Luis Villacis (1%), Democratic People's Movement (MPD). 
VP Cesar Buelva. 
 
¶10.  Marco Proano Maya (1%), Movement for Democratic 
Vindication (MRD).  VP Galo Cabanilla. 
 
¶11.  Marcelo Aguinaga (n/a), National Conciliation Movement 
(MCN).  VP Jorge Norero. 
 
¶12.  Marcelo Larrea (n/a), Third Republic Bolivarian Allianca 
Movement (ALBA).  VP Miguel Moran. 
 
¶13.  Franklin Munoz (n/a), National Movement to Wake Up 
Citizens, (MNDC).  VP Luis Burgos. 
 
¶14.  Pedro Roura O. (n/a), Pacific Revolution (MRP).  VP 
Vladimir Roura. 
 
¶15.  Carlos Sagnay (n/a), The Eclectic Movement (ME).  VP 
Luis Tuaran. 
 
¶16.  Lenin Torres (n/a), Revolutionary Movement of Popular 
Participation (MRPP).  VP Maria Pareja. 
 
¶7.  Julio Pincay (n/a), Ecuadorian Independent Patriotic 
Movement (MIPE).  VP Glenda Garcia. 
 
Correa Criticized as Aspiring "Dictator" 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) PAIS presidential candidate Rafael Correa did not 
register congressional candidates under the PAIS movement 
banner, saying to do so would only contribute to the 
institutional crisis.  PSC leader Leon Febres Cordero (LFC) 
publicly criticized Correa's decision as undemocratic: 
"Correa says that he will run for president, but not with a 
list of congressional representatives.  Doesn't that mean he 
is running for dictator?"  Congress President Wilfredo Lucero 
(ID) chimed in publicly, repeating the same charge on August 
14, adding that to expect the new Congress to approve a 
constituent assembly dissolving itself was ludicrous.  Any 
such assembly implies constitutional changes, requiring the 
support of a 2/3 majority in Congress.  Furthermore, he said, 
members of any assembly would "not be any more qualified or 
representative, and perhaps less so" than the newly-elected 
Congress.  While PAIS is not offering congressional 
candidates, the Socialist party which is supporting Correa,s 
presidential bid is. 
 
Congressional Lists Run Gamut 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) LFC heads the PSC Congressional list in Guayas, the 
PSC heartland and province with the largest population, and 
will certainly be re-elected, despite not appearing 
personally in Congress for years, for health reasons.  The 
PSC hopes to win 12 representatives in Guayas and between 
26-28 in the country.  PSC presidential candidate Cynthia 
Viteri's sister, Natalie, is second on the Guayas list. 
Meanwhile, the Red/Democratic Left Alliance (ID) had great 
difficulty agreeing on a coordinated division of candidates 
in Guayas, fueling allegations of divisions within the 
alliance.  The alliance therefore agreed to run separate 
congressional lists in Guayas, while Wilma Andrade and Andres 
Paez top the ID/RED list in Pichincha.  The PRIAN list in 
Guayas is headed by Alvaro Noboa's wife, Anabella Azin, with 
two other women, Silka Sanchez and Gloria Gallardo, filling 
out the top three spots. 
 
¶5.  (U) Four parties on August 15 also registered candidates 
for the Andean Parliament.  The PSC nominated former 
congressman Marcelo Dotti, while the Democratic Christian 
Union (UDC) selected former president Sixto Duran Ballen and 
Elsa de Mena, ex-director of Ecuador's Social Security 
Administration.  PRIAN chose Hector Solorzano, Bucaram's 
former private attorney.  Roldos' ID-RED, meanwhile put up 
its national president, Guillermo Landazuri, for the 
Parliament.  Former trade minister and Ecuadorian ambassador 
to the U.S., Ivonne Baki, was nominated by the PSP. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Noboa's re-entry into the race will alter the 
status of forces.  Though he left the race a month ago with 
only 10% support, the relative weakness of the PRE candidate 
and the TSE's likelihood of ruling out the Gutierrez ticket 
on technicalities could allow Noboa to rise to challenge 
Viteri for second place.  Regardless, administering this 
election with five different races, innumerable candidates 
and now 17 presidential contenders will challenge the TSE, 
making USG election support all the more critical.  Adding a 
15-question referendum, as proposed by President Palacio, 
would make it all but unmanageable. 
JEWELL