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DE RUEHQT #2008/01 2212158
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5017
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5866
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1923
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AUG 0001
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0844
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0963
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002008 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR ELECTION UPDATE: CORREA NAMES SURPRISE 
RUNNING-MATE 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Far-left presidential candidate Rafael 
Correa (PAIS) on August 5 announced Lenin Voltaire MORENO 
Garces as his running mate at a mass rally in rural coastal 
Guayas province.  Moreno, a relative political unknown, is 
unlikely to attract many votes to Correa, who said his choice 
of Moreno, a paraplegic, showed that "we are on the side of 
the weak."  With four tickets now complete, electoral 
speculation now centers on whether Freddy Ehlers, a prominent 
journalist, will enter the race, dividing the center-left, or 
possibly defer and even endorse Roldos.  On August 8, the 
Alvaro Noboa's PRIAN formally withdrew from its earlier 
electoral alliance with Lucio Gutierrez' PSP.  In other 
election news, the PSC registered party patriarch Leon Febres 
Cordero at the top of the candidate list for Congress from 
Guayas province.  The new Minister of Government told the 
Charge on August 7 that the government is considering adding 
a "sixth ballot"--essentially a referendum--to tap public 
opinion during the second round of presidential voting on 
November 26.  Women's groups are challenging implementation 
of the quota law which mandates that every party include 45% 
women candidates.  End Summary. 
 
Correa Selects Unknown Running-mate 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Moreno, a motivational speaker and promoter of 
"laugh therapy" for the disabled, hails from the Amazon 
region and is himself wheelchair-bound.  Moreno supports 
modernization of the public sector and increased rights for 
the disabled, researches emotional intelligence and is known 
for his sense of humor.  He describes himself as someone who 
"decided to return to life" after he was paralyzed by a 
gunshot in 1998.  Another leader of the handicapped movement 
told us he had also been offered the VP slot by Correa, who 
was apparently intent on selecting someone from this sector. 
 
¶3.  (U) Correa announced Moreno as his running mate in rural 
Palestina, Guayas province, on August 5.  Correa used the 
announcement speech to outline five strategies for rural 
development to the audience composed mainly of poor farmers. 
Moreno pledged to support Correa's agenda and focus on 
modernizing the public sector, promoting tourism, and 
supporting the disabled and street children.  He expressed 
confidence in his own and Correa's ability to get the job 
done, saying "I don't think that the country is unmanageable, 
they just have not known how to handle it."  The two 
registered their candidacies with electoral authorities on 
August 7, presenting 417,000 signatures in favor (note: 
98,000 are required for movements to register; political 
party candidates are not required to present signatures, but 
are required to have won more than 5% of the national vote in 
the previous election). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Bio Information:  Moreno was born on March 19, 
1953, in Nuevo Rocafuerte, in the Amazonian province of 
Orellana.  He is a licensed Public Administrator and Academic 
Director of the "Event Foundation" where he promotes 
emotional intelligence and is a motivational speaker known 
for his use of humor.  Moreno graduated from Central 
University where he studied Social Science.  From 2001-2004 
he served as National Disabilities Director.  He has also 
served as the Executive Director for the National Federation 
of the Chamber of Tourism in Pichincha province.  Moreno has 
published ten books on philosophy and humor, including a book 
of jokes.  He reportedly enjoys painting, swimming, singing, 
and playing guitar with his wife and three daughters in 
Quito.  (Comment: Moreno has active and positive ties with 
the Quito "forajido" movement that toppled Gutierrez; a 
highly engaging speaker, one former Gutierrez minister told 
us that he could significantly help the ticket in Quito.) 
 
 
Proano Maya Registers Running-Mate 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Former Congressional leader Marco Proano Maya, the 
Quixotic presidential candidate of the newly created Movement 
for Democratic Vindication, registered his candidacy with 
electoral authorities on August 4.  Proano had left Abadala 
Bucaram's Roldosista Party in 2004, after being passed over 
for the President of Congress position.  His base of support 
includes mainly pensioners, whose rights he champions.  He 
was joined on his ticket by Galo Santillan, a former 
Guayaquil chamber of commerce official.  Santillan brings a 
youthful and mainstream appeal to the ticket, but is not well 
 
enough known to alter this candidate's lackluster results so 
far.  Proano presented 125,000 signatures to register his 
candidacy but has attracted only marginal support (1-2%) in 
national polling. 
 
Freddy Ehlers on the Fence 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) A new element of uncertainty was injected late in the 
pre-campaign period when popular journalist Freddy Ehlers 
spurned offers of the vice presidential slot on two tickets 
(Viteri and Correa).  Instead, Ehlers said he was considering 
running for president himself for his New Nation Movement 
("Nuevo Pais").  He also had reportedly been working behind 
the scenes to forge a national consensus ticket of powerhouse 
mayors Jaime Nebot and Paco Moncayo, but that fell through. 
Ehlers ran unsuccessfully for president in 1996 and 1998, 
winning third (with 20%) and fourth-place (14%) finishes, 
respectively.  In 2002 he was elected to the Andean 
Parliament with more than 20% of the national vote.  His 
announcement immediately caused a furor in the Roldos/ID 
camp, which fears an Ehlers candidacy would divide the 
center-left vote.  ID leaders postponed the announcement of 
Congressional candidate lists, offering to defer to Ehlers on 
some nominations in exchange for him staying out of the 
presidential race. 
 
¶7.  (U) Ehlers' camp pushed for inclusion of ex-Minister of 
Economy Diego Borja in the ID candidate list for Pichincha 
province, where controversy already raged over the omission 
of senior ID legislator Andres Paez.  After Ehlers declared 
he would urge voters not to vote for Congress, pledging a 
Constituent Assembly to change constitutional rules on 
selecting a new Congress and Supreme Court, the ID declined 
to incorporate Borja in its lists.  Ehlers reportedly has 
already dropped the idea and Nuevo Pais is in the process of 
drawing up congressional candidate lists, placing Borja at 
the top of the list for Pichincha and former Cuenca mayor and 
Ehlers campaign manager Fernando Cordero for Azuay province. 
The ID list remains secret, but Roldos' running-mate Ramiro 
Gonzalez told the press that Paez would be included, 
preventing internal schism. 
 
Government Considering Non-binding Plebiscite 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In a courtesy call on August 7 the new Government 
Minister, Antonio Andretta, told the Charge he would mobilize 
public forces to ensure peaceful elections.  After lamenting 
early public apathy Andretta said the Palacio government 
would likely suspend its push for political or electoral 
reforms before the election.  (Note: Traditionally, the 
Government Minister has led these efforts.)  One exception, 
he said, might be the inclusion of a question or set of up to 
three questions (content unspecified) to be posed to voters 
in a "sixth ballot," in addition to the ballots for Pres/VP, 
Congress, Andean Parliament, Provincial Council, and 
Municipal Council seats.  If this initiative, proposed by 
Education Minister Raul Vallejo and civil society groups, 
comes to pass, Andretta said, it would only take place in the 
second round of presidential voting, on November 26.  He did 
not clarify which issues might be posed to voters, but they 
would deal with education policy rather than broader 
political reform issues.  Any such plebiscite would not bind 
the next government, but depending on results, could 
encourage action on reforms by the new Congress. 
 
PRIAN/PSP Alliance Off 
---------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Press reported on August 8 that PRIAN congressional 
leader Sylka Sanchez announced that the PRIAN will run its 
own candidates, rather than entering into any alliance with 
ex-president Lucio Gutierrez' Patriotic Society Party.  If 
confirmed, the decision would put to rest speculation that 
Noboa might invite former Trade Minister Ivonne Baki or 
Gutierrez sidekick Fausto Cobo to join him on the ticket. 
Baki told the Charge on August 9 that Noboa did not feel that 
he knew her well enough to make the offer, and that a meeting 
between Noboa and Gutierrez on broader alliance issues had 
gone badly.  Baki thought there was still a remote chance for 
salvaging the alliance, but that egos involved were making it 
unlikely. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Lucio Gutierrez moved ahead in the post-breakup 
 
scenario by announcing early on August 9 that the PSP would 
run a ticket led by his brother Gilmar Gutierrez and his 
government's former agriculture minister Leonardo Escobar. 
While the PRIAN and PSP slates will remain a factor, absent 
an alliance it is much less likely either will make it into 
the second round.  All candidacies for President, VP, 
Congress and council seats must be registered by August 15. 
 
PSC Sticks with the Boss 
------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (U) The Social Christian Party surprised no one by 
registering party patriarch and former president Leon Febres 
Cordero at the top of the PSC's candidate lists for Guayas 
province, assuring his re-election.  Febres Cordero has not 
been seen in Congress for years, due to health problems with 
the altitude of Quito. 
 
Women Pushing for Access 
------------------------ 
 
¶12.  (U) Women's groups have challenged the Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal's (TSE) interpretation of the law requiring 45% 
women candidates in the Constitutional Court.  The TSE had 
declined to mandate that male and female candidates alternate 
one for one at the top of the party lists of candidates, 
permitting some parties to alternate using other formulas 
(e.g. men for the principal list, women as alternates) which 
reduce prospects for women to gain office.  The ruling from 
the court is expected before August 15. 
BROWN