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O 160508Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7800
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000964 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: AGREEMENT ON SPEAKER OF CZECH PARLIAMENT PAVES WAY 
FOR GOVERNMENT TO RESIGN ON AUGUST 16 
 
PRAGUE 00000964  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. More than 10 weeks after the deadlocked June 
2-3 general election, the five parties in the Czech 
Parliament have agreed on a Speaker and five Deputy Speakers, 
allowing the new parliament to formally begin work, and 
removing one of the key issues that has blocked progress 
toward the formation of the next government.  Current Prime 
Minister Jiri Paroubek (CSSD) is expected to hand in his 
resignation on Wednesday, August 16, but will continue to 
rule until his likely successor, Mirek Topolanek (ODS), 
finishes putting together a cabinet and a program declaration 
that have the support of enough parliamentarians to win a 
vote of confidence.  Paroubek and CSSD are already making 
significant demands on both personnel and policy questions, 
which could prolong the next stage, and which make it unclear 
whether Topolanek will even succeed in creating a minority 
ODS government. END SUMMARY 
 
2.(U) On Monday, August 14, the 200-seat parliament, which is 
evenly split between the Social Democrats (CSSD) and the 
Communists (KSCM) with 100 seats on the left, and  the Civic 
Democrats (ODS), the Christian Democrats and the Greens (SZ) 
with 100 seats on the right, elected Miloslav Vlcek (CSSD) 
temporary Speaker of the Parliament.  He received 174 votes. 
If Topolanek succeeds in forming a minority ODS government 
and passes the vote of confidence,  Vlcek will resign and 
Paroubek will become Speaker.  If Paroubek is given the 
second attempt to form a government, and succeeds, Vlcek will 
resign in favor of an ODS candidate. If the second attempt to 
form a government also fails, Vlcek will resign before the 
third attempt, for which the Speaker gets to select the Prime 
Minister designate. Vlcek, 45, was a member of the Communist 
Party in the 1980's, and has more recently been the chairman 
of parliament's budget committee and a member of the board of 
the state-run debt consolidation agency, which has been 
troubled by financial scandal. He is more of a politician 
than an ideologue. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Parliament also elected five Deputy Chairs, 
including the previous Speaker Lubomir Zaoralek (CSSD), 
Miroslava Nemcova and Lucie Talmanova (ODS), Jan Kasal 
(KDU-CSL) and Vojtech Filip (KSCM). It is perhaps significant 
that just a day before the election in parliament, the heads 
of the parliamentary clubs for ODS, KDU-CSL, and the Greens 
all publicly stated their opposition to Filip's candidacy. 
The fact that he was elected with 101 votes in a secret 
ballot means that at least one parliamentarian from these 
parties supported Filip, who is the Chairman of the Communist 
Party.  Some observers are speculating that if the Chairman 
of the Communist Party can get 101 votes, then a 
left-of-center government tacitly supported by the Communists 
could probably also get 101 votes, the minimum required in a 
vote of confidence, thereby sustaining Paroubek's hopes that 
he will get a chance to form a government.  However, since 
the vote was secret and part of a larger package that had 
been painstakingly negotiated, it could also be that an ODS 
parliamentarian voted for Filip in order to prevent another 
logjam and to move the process forward, and not out of 
tolerance for the Communist Party. 
 
¶4. (U) Parliament formally concluded its constituent assembly 
on August 15 with an agreement on committee structures and 
numbers.  Individual assignments will be discussed on 
Tuesday, August 29.  Both CSSD and ODS want the chairs of the 
key committees, such as Budget, Security, Defense, Social 
Policies and Health.  In what could be a sign of preparations 
for compromises, several key committees have been split, 
opening up the way for both parties to get their share.  The 
previous parliament had a Defense and Security Committee. 
The next parliament will have a Defense Committee focusing on 
military affairs and a Security Committee looking into police 
and law enforcement.  Similarly,  the Social Policy and 
Health Committee has been split into two committees, making 
it possible for one of the two major parties to get the 
Chairmanship of the Health Committee, and another of Social 
Policy. The third split involves the previous Committee on 
Environment and Regional Affairs, possibly opening up more 
spaces for smaller parties such as the Greens and Christian 
Democrats. 
 
¶5.  (U) The end of the constituent assembly means the 
previous government can now hand in its resignation, a move 
that CSSD Deputy Chair and current Labor Minister Zdenek 
Skromach says will take place at the regular Wednesday 
session of government on August 16. Nevertheless, Topolanek 
still has several battles ahead of him, some of which could 
affect U.S. interests. Paroubek wants a say on every cabinet 
appointment, and on several key policy issues for which ODS 
 
PRAGUE 00000964  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
and CSSD have considerably different positions. Paroubek has 
already expressed reservations about Topolanek's choice of 
foreign minister, Alexandr (Sasha) Vondra, as being too 
pro-American.  Paroubek has also publicly insisted that the 
issue of an American missile defense facility, which 
Topolanek supports, be subjected to a popular referendum. 
Paroubek demands that the government program contains a 
commitment to a referendum. 
 
¶6. COMMENT. (SBU) The progress in parliament is significant 
for two reasons.  First of all it allows Parliament to 
actually get to work and begin the considering legislation. 
Second, it is the first tangible sign of progress in the 10 
weeks since the deadlocked election.  However,  Topolanek's 
plan for a minority ODS government, arguably the best outcome 
for U.S. - Czech relations, has a ways to go before it 
becomes a reality.  Paroubek has already blocked Topolanek's 
first attempt, a plan for a three-party center-right 
coalition.  Paroubek is seeking the right to vet every 
cabinet appointment in Topolanek's government, a stance that 
the Christian Democrats and the Greens say would prevent them 
from supporting a minority ODS government.  Paroubek also 
wants a say on many key issues.  There is broad expectation 
that Paroubek's goal is to stay on as Prime Minister, and is 
angling to be the one that President Klaus turns to if the 
first attempt to form a government fails.  This means 
Paroubek has no incentive to cooperate with Topolanek any 
more than is necessary to keep the process moving forwards 
towards the first vote of confidence.  The vote on the 
Speaker has finally broken the logjam and allowed the process 
to move forward, but we are still several steps away from 
seeing a lasting government emerge.  END COMMENT. 
CABANISS