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Lucia A Keegan  08/24/2006 11:19:38 AM  From  DB/Inbox:  Lucia A Keegan

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SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iran Lebanon - UNIFIL - EU-25 
Conference in Brussels President Bush's Press Conference 
PARIS - Wednesday, August 23, 2006 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
Iran 
Lebanon - UNIFIL - EU-25 Conference in Brussels 
President Bush's Press Conference 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
Iran and its arm wrestling match with the international community 
have replaced the Israeli-Lebanese conflict as today's lead 
international story, even if, as headlined in Le Figaro, both are 
closely related: "Tensions in the Middle East Allow Iran to Play for 
Time." The editorial which is entitled "Iran Strengthened by the War 
in Lebanon" reiterates the opinion that "Hezbollah's resistance to 
the Israelis is a considerable victory, especially in the eyes of 
the Arab streets" and concludes that "a deployment of forces in 
Southern Lebanon cannot be considered without keeping in mind a 
possible military confrontation between Washington and Iran." (See 
Part C) 
 
Le Monde analyzes the positioning of Iran in "The Middle East Game" 
and warns against "the West giving in to the weakness of global 
negotiations with Iran without sanction." (See Part C) 
 
Le Figaro carries an op-ed by former French Ambassador and Foreign 
Minister Jean-Bernard Raimond on the "war in Lebanon and the lessons 
which should have been learned from the Balkans" before committing 
to an international force. Raimond contends that the situation in 
Lebanon is so dire, "that it is surprising the international 
community gave up so quickly on the idea of a 'force of imposition' 
instead of a 'peace-keeping force." Raimond also warns that "the 
fact that the U.S. and Great Britain will not participate in the 
force, because they are over-stretched in Iraq, should lead others 
to extreme caution... The crisis in the Middle East stands as an 
example of the world situation since the war in Iraq: international 
disorder, absence of Europe and a difficult euro-Atlantic 
cooperation." 
 
La Croix interviews Dominique Moisi of IFRI, on the question of 
sanctions: "Conditions have never been better for the likelihood of 
obtaining sanctions at the UNSC... But sanctions are rarely 
effective. Embargoes have always been by-passed. I believe sanctions 
are useful on a psychological level; they are the ultimate warning 
before reverting to the use of force. They play a symbolic role to 
show our disagreement with an autistic country. We cannot exclude 
the possibility of a military intervention: what we have here is a 
calendar for escalation... 
A country to whom you suggest compromises scorns you." 
 
The negotiations in view of defining the UNIFIL's mission and 
composition are today's second lead international story.  For Le 
Figaro, "the EU is under pressure," while in Lebanon "Hezbollah 
continues its propaganda." (See Part C) FR2 showed Ambassador Bolton 
when he said: "Hezbollah must not be a state within a state anymore. 
We have to disarm it soon."  Also on FR2, FM Douste-Blazy gave his 
views: "France was the first country to send soldiers to Lebanon... 
while the U.S. chose not to. But France wants more details on the 
UNIFIL's mission... Ultimately, the decision to send a larger 
contingent remains in the President's hands..." 
 
La Croix and economic dailies devote their lead to France's economic 
growth thanks to renewed investments, according to La Tribune. As 
for Les Echos, employment is up in major French groups, in France 
and abroad. All reports indicate that PM Villepin is "ready to take 
advantage" of this upswing during this fall's traditional rentree. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
Iran 
 
"Iran Strengthened by Lebanese War" 
Pierre Rousselin in right-of-center Le Figaro 908/23): "Iran, which 
is finding itself in a position of strength after the war in 
Lebanon, remains as intransigent as ever on its nuclear program... 
The UN's sanctions, if they are implemented, will have limited 
impact considering Russia and China's reticence... And so the saga 
of Iran's nuclear crisis resumes just about where it had left off 
before the summer. For 34 days, Iran and Washington battled each 
other in the Lebanese war, through their respective allies, Israel 
and Hezbollah... With no real victor, each adversary is reading the 
outcome in a different light, with grave consequences for their 
future confrontation... Washington hoped Israel would neutralize 
Hezbollah, thus depriving Tehran of a means to respond to a military 
action on Iran's nuclear installations... Washington's desire to 
neutralize Hezbollah remains unchanged. For Iran, Hezbollah's 
resistance to the Israelis is a considerable victory, especially in 
the eyes of the Arab streets... This, in addition to a Shiite regime 
in Iraq and Hamas's victory in Palestine reinforces Iran's strategic 
position... The Lebanese war has not altered the parameters of the 
Iranian nuclear crisis. But it has upset the psychological context. 
Mostly it has turned a diplomatic exercise into an explosive 
situation: a deployment of forces in Southern Lebanon cannot be 
considered without keeping in mind a possible military confrontation 
between Washington and Iran." 
 
"Iran Is Playing For Time" 
Delphine Minoui in right-of-center Le Figaro (08/23): "After much 
dilly-dallying Iran's answer was neither yes nor no, which, 
according to Iran's atomic energy organization Vice President, 
represents 'an exceptional opportunity' to resume the 
negotiations... even if the Iranians are once again sidestepping the 
preamble of suspending its nuclear enrichment program... The 
Iranians have once again answered Iranian-style: in other words with 
numerous detours." 
 
"Iran's Blackmail and the West's Dilemma" 
Alain Barluet in right-of-center Le Figaro (08/23): "The turn of 
events in the Israeli-Lebanese conflict... has reinforced Iran's 
determination, emphasizing the international community's impotence 
in dealing with Iran. Hezbollah's resistance against Israel has 
handed Iran a position of strength... and given Tehran the lead on 
defining the calendar... With the Lebanese crisis ending to their 
advantage, the Iranians feel secure enough to bring about a 
negotiation on the preamble of the negotiations. In essence they 
want to convince the West that their program is not a military 
program as they play for time. With the tense situation in the 
Middle East, Iran's wager does not alleviate the West's dilemma. 
Washington has predicted sanctions in the event of an unacceptable 
Iranian answer. And so the question is whether the West, and the 
U.S. in particular, can, despite everything, accept a global 
dialogue with Iran. This is something Tehran believes it can 
achieve, thanks to the post-Lebanese war situation." 
 
"Iran in the Center of the Middle Eastern Game" 
Daniel Vernet in left-of-center Le Monde (08/23): "The grand 
bartering suggested by Albright and Vedrine, among others, that 
should be undertaken between the U.S. and Iran, to give Iran the 
recognition it wanted... and keep the U.S. from having to choose 
between bombing Iran or having to live with Iran's bomb was not 
adopted despite the fact that the dilemma is devastating for 
international relations... President Bush did not adopt this view 
because it was akin to underwriting the Mullahs' regime... Now Iran 
feels it is in a position of power, after the outcome of the 
conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and will offer to 'renegotiate 
the conditions of the negotiations... When FM Douste-Blazy, in the 
midst of that conflict, spoke of Iran's 'stabilizing role' he was 
only stating a fact, albeit somewhat clumsily...The West cannot 
ignore Tehran's role in Iraq, Afghanistan, and in the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict: "In the Arab streets, Ahmadinejad, is 
the man who wants to destroy Israel and is standing up to the 
Americans... France needs to turn towards Tehran to ensure its 
troops safety if they are to go to Lebanon... What will Iran do with 
its strategic positioning? Play the role of acceptable interlocutor 
or use its nuisance potential to the hilt? The West must be careful 
not to give in to its weakness and accept Iran's global dialogue 
instead of first imposing sanctions." 
 
Lebanon - UNIFIL - EU-25 Conference in Brussels 
 
"The EU Under Pressure" 
Alexandrine Bouilhet in right-of-center Le Figaro (08/23): "This 
afternoon the EU-25 will meet for the first time since the cessation 
of hostilities in Lebanon and on Friday, FMs will meet further to 
Italy's request, to define the UNIFIL's mission. In Brussels all 
eyes are on France which has disappointed its European partners... 
Some, like Spain, Italy and Greece, committed in the Middle East, 
want answers... Criticized for its lack of clarity, France's 
diplomacy has responded that it is waiting for more precise rules of 
engagement. Meanwhile Italy is occupying the front of the stage, 
while backstage diplomats say they are witnessing a cock fight 
between France and Italy. And experts contend that considering the 
context, the UNIFIL will comprise no more than 8,000 men, as opposed 
to the anticipated 15,000." 
 
"From Paris to the UN: The Diplomatic Battle" 
Philippe Bolopion and Nathalie Nougayrede in left-of-center Le Monde 
(08/23): "On July 31, the real tug of war between France and the US 
began at the UN. Repeatedly France was behind the cancellation of 
meetings intended to determine the countries that would contribute 
troops [to the UNIFIL]. On August 2, a Franco-American rapprochement 
became apparent with the two draft resolutions... But Washington is 
playing on words, on the face of it in order to buy time for 
Israel... On August 12, an agreement is reached on Resolution 
1701... But on August 16, the esteem that France had for its role in 
contributing to finding a solution to the crisis is shattered with 
the announcement that it will only provide a minimal- contribution 
of troops to the UNIFIL." 
 
"The Illusions of World Diplomacy" 
Bertrand Badie, professor at the Intitut d'Etutes Politiques in 
Catholic La Croix (08/23): "In the Israeli-Lebanese conflict, 
diplomacy was the victim... And mostly it was the victim of its own 
illusions: An illusion of temporality, in the first place, as if 
time always worked for the good... An illusion of power, as if he 
who is the mightiest is necessarily the victor... Hezbollah does not 
obey the rationality of states known in our chanceries... It is time 
we learned that international relations are the projection of human 
suffering and not the strategic universe of diplomats or soldiers. 
And because Hezbollah and Hamas have understood this better than 
anyone, they have gained stronger positions which we should not 
ignore." 
 
President Bush's Press Conference 
 
"President Bush Faithful to His Divine Mission" 
Philippe Grangereau in left-of-center Liberation (08/23): "Lebanon, 
Iraq, Iran: despite his failures on the ground, President Bush's 
foreign policy for the Middle East and 'the advancement of liberty' 
has barely changed... During his press conference President Bush had 
to face a barrage of questions about disengaging from Iraq, his 
showcase for 'his strategy of freedom.' His answer, 'not until the 
job is done,' was given with some irritation... In Lebanon, 
Washington's strategy, adopted by several European countries, has 
not succeeded. That of given Israel enough time to eradicate 
Hezbollah before getting the UN involved... According to Philip 
Gordon, some changes have been made: neo-cons such as Wolfowitz and 
Bolton were kept away from key posts and replaced with 
'professional' diplomats... Still President Bush's doctrine of a 
world divided between 'them and us' continues to prevail, especially 
in Iraq, the pivot of Bush's policy for the Middle East. And this 
despite the U.S. media's latest itemization of all that has gone bad 
in Iraq. Few Americans today appear convinced that the occupation of 
Iraq has lowered the terrorist threat. And the sad reality, as the 
NYT said, is that 'the White House has reinforced Iran and Hezbollah 
while it has undermined Israel.'" HOFMANN