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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003565 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM RP
SUBJECT: 2006 ARROYO IMPEACHMENT DEAD; MOVING FORWARD ON A 
"PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE" 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary: On August 24, the House of 
Representatives voted 173-32 to uphold its own justice 
committee report recommending the dismissal of this year's 
impeachment complaint against President Gloria Macapagal 
Arroyo.  Most politicians and observers had long viewed the 
outcome as a foregone conclusion, but the Opposition was 
determined to make its case against the President publicly 
again.  Support for impeachment dwindled, apparently in part 
due to extensive lobbying from Malacanang and alleged 
selective refusal to release Congressional "pork barrel" 
funds to impeachment supporters in the run-up to May 2007 
elections.  The result should leave the President in a 
stronger political position.  Supporters of a "people's 
initiative" on Constitutional change now claim to have 
sufficient signatures nationwide to justify a plebiscite 
under the 1987 Constitution, but neither the Commission on 
Elections or the Supreme Court is likely to go along. End 
summary. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Following a 17-hour session throughout the night of 
August 23/24, the House of Representatives voted 173-32 to 
uphold its own justice committee report recommending the 
dismissal of this year's impeachment complaint against 
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, as expected.  Members of 
Congress from both the pro-Administration and Opposition 
sides called the impeachment effort an "exercise in futility" 
or a "foregone conclusion," but Opposition members insisted 
publicly and privately that it was important to raise 
concerns about the legitimacy of the President's 2004 victory 
again and to seek accountability.  Much of the debate in the 
Committee hearing as well as on the plenary floor focused on 
the admissibility of several boxes of alleged additional 
evidence, which the Committee rejected.  Most of the voting 
Members used their right to a three minute explanation of 
vote, many with an eye of publicity for their expected May 
2007 re-election campaigns.  Star orators in favor of 
impeachment included Congressmen Alan Peter Cayetano and 
Francis "Chiz" Escudero (both of whom may seek Senate seats) 
as well as party list representative "Teddy" Casino. 
Observers gave low marks to Speaker Jose de Venecia's 
remarks, in which he may another predictable pitch for 
charter change and stressed that parliamentary systems do not 
waste time on impeachments. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) At least 78 votes, or 1/3 of the House membership, 
would have been necessary to send an impeachment complaint to 
the Senate for a trial.  This year, the pro-impeachment lobby 
only got 32 votes, down from 51 on the impeachment vote last 
year.  At least 13 Congressmen allegedly agreed to change 
their votes from a year ago in order to obtain Congressional 
"pork barrel" funding, currently held up by the 
Administration.  There were allegations that, even on the 
verge of the voting, representatives from the Presidential 
Legislative Liaison Office were distributing brown envelopes 
stuffed not with cash but with promises to release specific 
amounts of funds, in exchange for support in blocking the 
impeachment motion.  Several Congressmen used their 
explanation of vote to detail the infrastructural and other 
projects they had succeeded in bringing to their districts. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  After the vote, Speaker de Venecia urged members 
to end "poisonous, disruptive politics" and to assist the 
Administration in solving the country's problems. 
Presidential political advisor Gabriel Claudio said that the 
President is "thankful" to Congress and is now "extending the 
hand of reconciliation."  House Minority Leader Escudero 
nonetheless publicly congratulated his colleagues who voted 
to impeach "despite the odds."  Presidential son and 
Congressman Juan Miguel "Mikey" Arroyo tried to shake the 
hands of former Arroyo Cabinet members (from the Hiatt 10 
group that resigned en masse in July 2005) Teresita "Ging" 
Deles and Dinky Soliman in the public gallery after the vote, 
but they refused and later said "without repentance, no sense 
looking for forgiveness."   They and others still predict 
another impeachment effort in 2007; no more than one 
impeachment is possible against a single individual within a 
one-year period. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  On August 25, multisectoral organizations "Sigaw 
ng Bayan," the Union of Local Authorities of the Philippines 
(ULAP), and the Advocacy Commission (Ad-Com) jointly filed a 
"people's initiative" petition calling for Charter change 
with the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC), 
claiming they had succeeded in obtaining signatures of the 
Constitutionally-required twelve percent of total registered 
voters, including at least three percent in each legislative 
district.  (Makati City, under anti-Arroyo Mayor Binay, was 
 
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the last hold out.)  COMELEC Chairman Abalos privately told 
Pol/C that COMELEC would have to decline to act on the 
petition absent a new Supreme Court decision reversing a 1998 
decision prohibiting COMELEC involvement until Congress 
passed enabling legislation related to such initiatives. 
Leaders of the "One Voice" NGO opposing the "people's 
initiative" confirmed to poloffs that they intend to bring 
the issue to the Supreme Court again in order to block the 
current effort, although they support calls for a 
constitutional convention to discuss and approve a new 
constitution. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Comment:  While there was never much likelihood 
that the impeachment effort would prosper more than in 2005, 
this overwhelming Congressional vote should leave President 
Arroyo and her supporters in a stronger political position 
and enable them to focus more fully on policy priorities.  It 
seems unlikely at this point that the "people's initiative" 
will go very far or very fast; there is no sense of genuine 
momentum or true popular support, despite the apparently 
successful signature campaign. 
Jones