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Dianne Wampler  08/21/2006 08:55:36 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Dianne Wampler

Cable 
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UNCLAS        ISTANBUL 01501

SIPDIS
CX:
    ACTION: ECON
    INFO:   CONS PA RAO FCS FAS MGT PMA POL DCM AMB

DISSEMINATION: ECON /1
CHARGE: PROG

VZCZCAYO298
PP RUEHAK
DE RUEHIT #1501/01 2331020
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211020Z AUG 06
FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5710
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHDA/AMCONSUL ADANA PRIORITY 2251

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001501 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID CASC TU
SUBJECT: A BITTER DAY: THE SEVENTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 1999 
EARTHQUAKE 
 
REF: A. 03 ISTANBUL 1039 
     ¶B. ANKARA 3436 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On August 17, the seventh anniversary of 
the deadly 1999 Marmara earthquake, 
newspapers published articles evaluating ongoing efforts, 
especially in Istanbul, to prepare 
for the next big quake. The commentators unanimously 
criticized insufficient preparations and 
planning and the slow speed at which retrofitting and 
reconstruction of buildings has occurred. 
Echoing our previous observations (refs A & B), a major 
obstacle cited by experts in the articles 
was the lack of clear leadership or responsibility, as well 
as the lack of well-defined 
short-term, medium-term, and long-term plans. 
 
 
"We Will Never Forget, We Can Never Forget" 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Most newspapers on August 17 ran articles on the 7th 
anniversary of the 7.4-magnitude 
Marmara earthquake, which killed more than 17,000 and left 
countless more injured. Although 
some had articles in commemoration of the actual event, the 
primary focus was the state of 
current earthquake mitigation and response measures taken by 
the government. Commentators 
were unanimously critical of Turkey's, and particularly 
Istanbul's, state of preparedness. 
 
 
The Experts Weigh In On Current Preparations: No Good News 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Several of the newspapers interviewed experts in 
earthquake planning, engineering, 
and other related fields. More than a few of the experts 
lambasted Turkey's latest "9th 
Development Plan" for the years 2007-2013, which reportedly 
does not address the earthquake 
issue. "It is impossible to understand the exclusion of a 
topic so influential to this 
country's future," declared Yavuz Tanrisever, the president 
of the Istanbul branch of the 
Geologic Engineering Association, to Milliyet. Ismet Cengiz, 
TMMOB Geologic Engineering 
Association Administration President, told Radikal that if a 
7.5-magnitude earthquake occurs 
with an epicenter in Istanbul, 30,000 buildings will be 
totally destroyed, 40,000 buildings 
will be heavily damaged, 50,000 people will die, and there 
could be at least fifty billion 
dollars worth of damage. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Radikal not only elicited commentator's criticisms 
of current planning, but 
also evaluated preparation in Istanbul's public buildings. It 
noted that following 
the 1999 earthquake a determination was made that 2,473 
public buildings would need to 
be retrofitted against earthquakes or demolished and rebuilt 
entirely. These included 308 
medical buildings, 1,783 schools, 68 administration 
buildings, 27 social services buildings, 
and 46 student dormitories. Over the past seven years, of the 
308 hospital buildings only 
11 have been retrofitted, while only 326 schools have been 
retrofitted, a mere five dormitories 
have been retrofitted, and projects for making security and 
administrative offices 
earthquake-prepared are still in the early stages. Radikal 
noted that if the current pace continues, 
it would take 190 years to outfit the hospital buildings, 31 
years to finish the schools, and 
55 years to complete the dormitories. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Not only did the newspapers criticize the lack of 
effort over the past seven years, 
but also pointed out that the probability of a large 
earthquake has only increased in the years 
following the 1999 disaster. "In 1999, the probability of a 
large earthquake in Istanbul in the next 
30 years was 60%," Dr. Haluk Sucuoglu noted to Sabah. "Since 
we haven't had an earthquake in 
seven years, now this probability has increased." 
 
Where's the Money? 
------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Clearly money is a large factor in the seemingly 
slow response of government. 
One figure cited was 4.2 billion YTL (approximately USD 2.9 
billion) for the study of 
public buildings, evaluation of security, preparations for 
the retrofitting of buildings, 
and the construction of materials for the retrofitting 
projects. Somewhat more disturbing 
was Milliyet's reporting that a significant portion of the 
"earthquake tax" to help rebuild 
and prepare for future disasters has been instead used to pay 
off Turkey's debt and interest 
payments. According to statistics cited by the paper, in 
2003, 1.423 quadrillion old 
Turkish Lira (approximately USD 988 million) was collected 
and 1.043 quadrillion 
(approximately USD 723 million) was used to pay off debt and 
interest rather than 
for its expressed purpose. 
Authorities' Response: Newspapers Not Favorable 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶7. (SBU) The newspapers focused intently on expert criticism 
and did not attempt to put 
official replies in a good light. Istanbul Governor Muammer 
Guler gave a press conference 
on August 16 and reportedly responded that "nowhere in the 
world can this job be finished 
in three to five years." Mustafa Taymaz, head of the Disaster 
Relief Administration, was 
quoted as saying that the "infrastructure was ready" and that 
disaster administration was 
"better than in the U.S. and in some EU countries," but that 
it was "not right for citizens 
to wait for the government." "If necessary, citizens can 
obtain credit and strengthen their 
buildings themselves." Radikal commented that the government 
was "passing the ball to citizens," 
implying that officials were not taking responsibility for 
earthquake preparations. A headline 
also read "Everyone is busy with state 'projects' to 
strengthen buildings," detailing the 
numerous unrealized projects which have solved the earthquake 
problem "on paper." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Overall, the newspapers focused on current 
earthquake preparations and their 
conclusions were not positive. Sucuoglu commented to Sabah 
that "had the 1999 earthquake 
been taken as a good warning for Istanbul, the necessary 
preparations could have been 
done in seven years." Whether this timeframe is accurate or 
not, retrofitting efforts have 
been disappointingly slow. The lack of ownership of this 
issue has been a major obstacle to 
effective preparations (refs A & B). One expert advised that 
the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality 
office needs to unequivocally take charge and create a plan 
with short-term (three to five year), 
medium-term (10 year), and long-term (25 to 30 year) goals. 
Despite the somewhat alarming picture 
painted by the media and local experts, efforts by the GOT at 
all levels are ongoing. The cooperative 
effort with the USGS that began in 1999 continues with a team 
from USGS currently in Istanbul. 
Media scrutiny of earthquake preparations may also serve to 
spur the government to greater action. 
OUDKIRK